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On a Wednesday morning conference call with reporters, Obama’s campaign manager, David Plouffe, said that the Illinois senator’s own sweep of Tuesday’s Potomac primaries had made it “next to impossible” for Clinton to capture the Democratic nomination.
Is it just me, or is that premature and arrogant? Admittedly, Obama is on a roll and clearly has momentum in his favor. But we've still got some big primaries coming up, namely Wisconsin, Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. If Obama captures all 4, then I'd agree that Clinton has no chance of winning the nomination. However, until the voters in those states have the chance to vote, nobody should be making comments like the one above.
You really can't ever count the Clintons out, they don't go away that easily, and there is still the matter of super delegates.
But the current strategy of the Clintons to ignore the small states leading up to Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, is a lot like Guiliani's strategy to ignore the small states up to Florida, and you know how that turned out for him. Momentum going into those big primaries is important. I imagine she will win Texas, but I think Obama will take Ohio and Pennsylvania pretty easily.
But the current strategy of the Clintons to ignore the small states leading up to Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, is a lot like Guiliani's strategy to ignore the small states up to Florida, and you know how that turned out for him. Momentum going into those big primaries is important. I imagine she will win Texas, but I think Obama will take Ohio and Pennsylvania pretty easily.
I agree this isn't the best strategy, especially given Giuliani's recent history. My point was just that there's still a lot of voting to be done in some pretty big states and we should let that unfold before counting Clinton out completely.
Interesting thoughts on OH and PA since that goes against what the media has been predicting. Why do you think Obama will end up winning those states?
Clinton needs to win Ohio, TX, and PA by large margins to stay ahead. She won't.
Wrong. She needs to win the larger portion of the delegates in those states, and she will. She does not need to win by 60% in those states as the MSM is screaming about. She needs to win roughly 56% of the remaining delegates, and she most likely will.
She will win more than 60% of the delegates in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Don't believe the Hype, Obama does not have this wrapped up, not even close.
Why do you think Obama will end up winning those states?
First of all, I won't pretend to an expert on any of these states.
Both of those state are about half Republican / half Democrat. Both states have a pretty considerable black population. In the primaries leading up to these states Obama has overwhelming support of this community. You'd have to assume that almost all of the Republicans in these states are white, since that is usually the case. So I would guess that there are more black Democrats than White Democrats. At least in Ohio I would believe this to be true.
In Pennsylvania you have Democrats in the East part of the state in Philadelphia, the biggest city in the state, which is a predominately black city. The suburbs that are largely white tend to be more Republican, and even if the independants in the burbs of Philly vote in the Democratic primary, they will most likely go for Obama because he is seen as less partisan, and does well among indys. The middle of the state is pretty rural, with mostly Rick Santorum Republicans. In the West, is Pittsburgh, I'd guess this city will mostly vote for Clinton, because it is very blue-collar, which is her appeal. But I think there is enough people in Philly to out vote the Clinton supporters in Pittsburgh.
In Ohio it is the same story, I believe (not sure) that there are more Democratic blacks than whites. Since a large portion of Ohio is rural, white, and Republican, that leaves a majority of Democrats in Cincinatti, Columbus, and Cleveland. I'd guess Cleveland will go to Clinton, and Columbus and Cincy, will go Obama. I would guess that the suburbs of these three cities will go to Obama, because burbs tend to have more independants than the cities.
Texas democrats are similar to Oklahoma democrats, I would guess. Oklahoma was won easily by Clinton.
And Obama has the momentum, and that will be hard to overcome. His band wagon doesn't seem like it will slow down. And there is still time for it to pick up speed.
That's how I'm calling it, I could be completely wrong though, just how I see it going down.
Wrong. She needs to win the larger portion of the delegates in those states, and she will. She does not need to win by 60% in those states as the MSM is screaming about. She needs to win roughly 56% of the remaining delegates, and she most likely will.
She will win more than 60% of the delegates in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Don't believe the Hype, Obama does not have this wrapped up, not even close.
I agree.
And I would add that this isn't a "strategy." It's simply how the cards have fallen, given the amount of money and time Hillary has. Her campaign certainly didn't plan it this way.
And I would add that this isn't a "strategy." It's simply how the cards have fallen, given the amount of money and time Hillary has. Her campaign certainly didn't plan it this way.
Eaxactly. So the "Guiliani strategy" is not in play here. It's just how things fell into place.
Eaxactly. So the "Guiliani strategy" is not in play here. It's just how things fell into place.
It should be noted that Gulianni's strategy was never really to abandon New Hampshire, he actually spent a considerable amount of time and resources early on, but as the polls show his campaign floundering there, they pulled out and spun it into the idea that they were always just waiting for Florida.
From what I've read, Hillary's decision to pull out campaign resources from MD and VA, giving Obama these dominant victories, doesn't seem to be too bright. It's one thing to lose, its another thing to lose badly.
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