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If the GOP takes control of both Houses of Congress in 2014 it will increase pressure on Hillary to run in 2016. The very thought of a Republican President signing Tea Party favored legislation into law will boost Democratic turnout in 2016. It increases chances of a Democratic victory in 2016, rather than discouraging Hillary or any other Democrat from running.
The logic is simple: Hillary Clinton is an opportunist. She badly wants to break the male-only Presidential "glass ceiling," but only if she can come away with a legacy to match it. Given Republicans abject Hatred of All Things Clinton,â„¢ I predict that Hillary Clinton will view a GOP Senate and House Majority a threat to her very ambition to actually get anything done as the first female President. The chances that Democrats retake one or both of the chambers in 2016 would be so slim, that a 2014 GOP steamroll would/will force her to retire politically instead of running for President in 2016.
No doubt about it, she's waiting on the 2014 midterms to make a decision.
I think you underestimate the hatred for all things Clinton that runs deep in conservatives and independents.
Independents choose Christie over Clinton by substantial margins in recent polls. That indicates a dislike for Clinton.
The reason that "Independents" backed Romney or any other Republican is because these "Independents" includes a significant number of Tea Party types who are so right wing that they detest the Republican label. Republican strategists were convinced they would win in 2012 because polls showed the percentage of Republican ID was way too low based on past history and besides, they had the Independents. It didn't work out too well because the low percentage of Republicans turned out to be accurate. Looking at the Independent vote now and assuming that that represents swing voters is no longer accurate.
However, the GOP has a stranglehold on the House for at least a decade by most accounts. If the GOP takes the Senate in 2014, do you think Democrats could retake it in 2016? Would Hillary accept a divided government with the same negative results as the Barack Obama presidency? I don't think she would be inclined to take that risk.
First off I don't think the GOP will take the Senate this year, though I do think they will pick up seats this yer. However, the Democrats will very likely pick up seats in 2016 for the very same reasons the GOP will this year.
Due to the Democratic pickups in 2008, the Democrats are defending more seats than the GOP this year, especially in the swing/ marginal states. In 2016 the opposite is true, the GOP will be defending more seat, especially of the swing/marginal variety.
The logic is simple: Hillary Clinton is an opportunist. She badly wants to break the male-only Presidential "glass ceiling," but only if she can come away with a legacy to match it. Given Republicans abject Hatred of All Things Clinton,â„¢ I predict that Hillary Clinton will view a GOP Senate and House Majority a threat to her very ambition to actually get anything done as the first female President. The chances that Democrats retake one or both of the chambers in 2016 would be so slim, that a 2014 GOP steamroll would/will force her to retire politically instead of running for President in 2016.
No doubt about it, she's waiting on the 2014 midterms to make a decision.
What do you think?
I think she's Ms Cranky Pants and the less people see of her campaigning, the better chance she has to get the Democrat nomination because there is less chance her snarly demeanor will rear its ugly head in public. If I were her, I'd wait until the last minute possible to declare my candidacy. She could use the extra time to make up some accomplishments. I'm worried people think they are getting Bill Clinton by voting for her. On the other hand, Martin O'Malley would be even worse. Hold onto your wallet!
This is just stone cold makes-no-sense whatsoever. What in Hillary's career has given you the impression that she is afraid of a challenge and shy away from adversity?
Was it when she took on a prolonged battle with the AR Education Assoc. to implement teacher testing? A long and exhausting battle that she ultimately won?
Was it when she was the first woman to ever made partner at the Rose Law Firm?
Was it when she was selected as the 100 most influential lawyer in the country?
Was it when she was voted Arkansas's Mother of the Year?
Was it when she decided to run for the Senate against then presumed GOP nominee and popular mayor Rudy Guliani?
Yeah sure, this is someone who is going to be discouraged by a.... what is it? Uh, yeah, a Senate majority for the GOP.
Make sense. What's next? Hillary will be afraid to run because she dislike DC weather?
.
So, if she decides not to run, what will be your excuse? Clearly, you think she's invincible and has every reason to run. But what if she doesn't? What will these "credentials" you pose mean to you then?
and many will disagree with you on both parts: I predict the senate will stay Democrat but it will be very close and as for Hillary? Right now, for many reasons i would call it a toss up...
Don't be too sure of that. He's not actually very well liked here. He only won in 2010 because the Republicans picked Angle instead of Lowden as their nominee, and while I respect Angle and what she stands for, she didn't have much chance of winning. Even with all the mud that the Democrats drug her through, it was still a reasonably close election, which should tell you something.
I personally don't think Reid is going to run again, but he DOES love his power, so he might. I would think that someone his age (the 2016 election is about a month before his 77th birthday) would want to retire and spend their remaining years with family, but he might just be so thirsty for power that he'll push his family aside and spend his last years playing politics. I certainly wouldn't put it past him.
Anyway, I just thought I'd give you a heads up from someone who actually lives in the state he represents (poorly), and pays attention to what the people around here think of him.
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