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Wisconsin is irrelevant to Romney if he wins Ohio, yet he's running up there all of a sudden to do campaign appearances. He should be in Ohio and Virginia until the election.
I think hes tipping his hand saying internals arnt looking so hot for us.
Wisconsin makes no sense if you think you are going to win Ohio. New Hampshire is the safer play imo.
I really want to believe this is true as it would be one big fat stake through the heart of Romney and the Republican party and one step closer to tasting their tears on election night.
If it makes y'all feel any better, I just saw these two comments on Silver's blog:
Quote:
Ohioan_23
Ohio
I'm in Ohio, I drive through Cuyahoga county about every day, in all parts of it from day to day, I can tell you that what is not being reported in senceirty is the effort being made to get the democrats to vote early, it's huge and well organized.
Obama must win Cuyahoga County big in order to win Ohio. So though the article says that it comes down to Ohio it really comes down to a few counties in Ohio, and of those it really comes down to Cuyahoga County where Cleveland is the County seat,
Cleveland is where most of the effort is going to get the vote out early and its paying off.
I'm fortunate enough to love outside Cleveland but in a burb of it in another county that always votes Republican, though I can tell you that Romney is not creating a lot of excitement in this county,
My hunch is that this race over due to the groundwork by the Obama campaign and the failure of Romney to get anything rolling with what should be his base, they just aren't that excited.
I believe that a lot of R's would rather just concede Obama four more and start over in 2016. That's the vibe I get, BTW I plan to vote O this time, I voted McCain last time. I really have no bias either way, I just don't like what Romney has done in his business past
NYT 10-23-12
**********
Joe the Carpenter
Ohio
I'm in Ohio. Who would you rather decide the election Nevada (or Texas) or Ohio?
We'll do a fair job for you all. Polls provide data. Yet don't forget Ohio electoral history. Based on recent history and historical trends Ohio is a bridge too far for Mr. Romney. Let's recount the last twelve years. With luck and Deibold at odds, here's hoping this is the only recount.
2000: Al Gore lost the Ohio by the Nader margin (2.5%). Gore pulled his ads two weeks out from the election. Run the ads and visit once more, it would have been President Gore.
2004: In the boiler room, it looked like Kerry had won. Turned out to be 100,000 votes and the margin of malfeasance for Bush. Massive voting problems and vote suppression.
2008: A very white Reddish state goes Obama by almost 5%. By Ohio standards a massacre. We're home to Joe the Plumber, new voting machines and unrestricted early voting.
2010: In a wave election the sitting Democrat governor loses a close election. Turnout was low, election smooth. Turnout decided.
2011: A Scott Walker like public union bash (including police and fire) was up for referendum. The new governor's referendum didn't break 40%. Free lesson: don't mess with fire fighters.
2012: Two weeks away, the polls sit about 2% for the President. In Ohio, a 2% win is grounds for celebration. That margin is outside the margin for malfeasance. All machines and ballots are paper recorded. (NO CHADS). A recount will discover shenanigans.
Ryun sent this to Secrets from his analysis of Ohio early voting:
In 2008, there were 1,158,301 total absentee ballots requested, 33 percent registered Democrat and 19 percent registered Republican--a 14 point gap. So far in 2012, 638,997 ballots have been requested, 29 percent Democrat and 24 percent Republican--only a five point gap.
Ryun, whose group has opened voter registration efforts in Ohio and other swing states, said that the Buckeye State's efforts to clean up voter rolls has also played a part in tightening the gap. He said that 450,000 dead voters and duplicate registrations have been nixed, and the majority were Democrats
The Republicans have shrunk the gap nine percent overall since 2008, but when we examine key counties in Ohio, the numbers become even more dramatic.
--Champaign County: Was +3% GOP, now +23% GOP - 20 point shift.
--Columbiana County: Was +9% DEM, now +9% GOP - 18 point shift.
--Crawford County: Was +3% DEM, now +12% GOP - 15 point shift.
--Cuyahoga County: Was +36% DEM, now +30% DEM (GOP already has 6,000 more requests than in 2008) - 6 point shift.
--Erie County: Was +24% DEM, now +7% DEM -17 point shift.
--Franklin County: Was +5% DEM, now +5% GOP - 10 point shift.
--Greene County: Was +4% DEM, now +19% GOP - 23 point shift.
--Harrison County: Was +22% DEM, now +5% DEM - 17 point shift.
--Hamilton County: Was +7% GOP, now +13% GOP - 6 point shift.
--Licking County: Was TIED, now +16% GOP - 16 point shift.
--Montgomery County: Was +29% DEM, now +5% DEM - 24 point shift.
--Muskingum County: Was +1% DEM, now +16% GOP - 17 point shift.
--*****way County: Was +12% DEM, now +15% GOP - 27 point shift.
--Seneca County: Was +1% DEM, now +13% GOP - 14 point shift.
--Summit County: Was +33% DEM, now +6 DEM - 27 point shift.
--Wood County: Was +10% DEM, now +1% GOP - 11 point shift.
I did see some numbers yesterday which, after I calculated, gave Romney - in the end - a win by 2%. Had to do with remaining numbers of people who had not yet voted and that there weren't enough Democrats left. We'll see. Sure hope that's wrong.
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Is the race in Ohio already over
