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Silver's numbers come from a model that uses polls and economic factors. Every night he adjusts for all the new data available that day, and runs 25,001 election similations. His popular vote and Electoral College vote, as well as his individual state percentages, tipping point percentages, most common Electoral College maps, etc., all come from those daily simulations.
I don't know if this is a serious question, but he uses computer simulations of the election. The parameters and relative weighting of them in his model are his own and include factors like poll results, economic performance, cultural synergy, and so on. He runs hundreds of simulations of the election varying those parameters and comes up with a probabilistic projection of the outcome.
Translation to "Conservative": When a bunch of polls have Romney down, it ain't gud.
I don't know why this question keeps coming up. People can just Google "Nate Silver methodology."
I heard a report that Dick Morris made some outlandish prediction about Romney winning the popular vote by 10 points and winning over 300 electoral votes. Honestly, even if he thinks Romney will win, there is no harm is stating it will be close. If Morris is wrong (and I think he will be, even if Romney does win), this should be the end of hearing him sell his books on the air.
Dick Morris will never go away. He is like Trump when they need attention they say something stupid.
Romney's up 13 in Nebraska. So it looks like his no taxes, no abortion, no healthcare, no federal emergency assistance message is getting through to someone.
Oh I'm going to be sooooo embarrasseeed on Tuesday night.....LOL
Yes you keep telling yourself that......It will make the hurt go away...LOL
To while away the time on Election Night, before results come in, I will be compiling two lists compiled from posts on this thread. One list will be all those who made unambiguous predictions for an Obama victory, the other will be a list of all those who predicted Romney will win.
I will post these lists under the titles, "C-D Prediction Heroes" and "C-D Prediction Goats."
In my opinion, there is no telling which list will bear which title.
If you have vacillated in your posts or changed your mind or want to secure your place on either list, post an unambiguous prediction below this post and before midnight on Monday, November 5th. I can't tell how far back in the thread I will go (depends on time available), but I will certainly get back to this post.
To while away the time on Election Night, before results come in, I will be compiling two lists compiled from posts on this thread. One list will be all those who made unambiguous predictions for an Obama victory, the other will be a list of all those who predicted Romney will win.
I will post these lists under the titles, "C-D Prediction Heroes" and "C-D Prediction Goats."
In my opinion, there is no telling which list will bear which title.
If you have vacillated in your posts or changed your mind or want to secure your place on either list, post an unambiguous prediction below this post and before midnight on Monday, November 5th. I can't tell how far back in the thread I will go (depends on time available), but I will certainly get back to this post.
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