It's Over: No candidate with over 50% in Gallup in Mid-October has ever lost & Romney now up 51-45 (Al Gore, voters)

[Tall Tiger]

Romney is now up 51-45 among likely voters and no candidate with more than 50% in mid-October in the Gallup among likely voters has ever lost. I guess maybe Obama could be the 1st? I doubt it, he's trending down and the 100% accurate Colorado U. poll has Romney a lock. Turn out the lights, the parties over....

Election 2012 Likely Voters Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney

[01Snake]

Never say never. Obama is a slippery little fella that you'll have to keep an eye on until all the votes are counted.

This election is clearly a tossup right now.

[nick is rulz]

^ yeah. Its more leaning towards tossup territory than it is a decisive victory for either party.

[Some_Random_Guy]

I wouldn't count on it, but I won't argue. One thing is for sure, there will be a lot of crybabies regardless who wins.

Democrats win, and republicans go off the socialism deep end.

Republicans win, they're all racists. You know, all the standard talking points.

[EdwardA]

It's not over until the fat lady fact checks.

[atltechdude]

Originally Posted by Tall Tiger

Romney is now up 51-45 among likely voters and no candidate with more than 50% in mid-October in the Gallup among likely voters has ever lost. I guess maybe Obama could be the 1st? I doubt it, he's trending down and the 100% accurate Colorado U. poll has Romney a lock. Turn out the lights, the parties over....

Election 2012 Likely Voters Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney

Except that's only one poll. Another poll has Obama up by 3.

[nick is rulz]

Its also really odd that he brings this up as an authoritarian point like its infallible when....

1). The Gallup poll only began tallying likely voters in the 1992 election, so that gives us 5 elections worth of data
2). Neither Gore nor Bush got over 50% of the likely voter selection in 2000, so subtract that.

So he has data for 4 elections, essentially....but he says it in this way like it goes back to the FDR days or something (I saw the video clip)

[gsoboi78]

Originally Posted by 01Snake

Never say never. Obama is a slippery little fella that you'll have to keep an eye on until all the votes are counted.

This election is clearly a tossup right now.

Add to the fact that Obama is still up in the electoral college and he leads in Ohio. National polls or the popular vote doesn't matter so much. Ask Al Gore about that.

[Randomstudent]

Originally Posted by nick is rulz

Its also really odd that he brings this up as an authoritarian point like its infallible when....

1). The Gallup poll only began tallying likely voters in the 1992 election, so that gives us 5 elections worth of data
2). Neither Gore nor Bush got over 50% of the likely voter selection in 2000, so subtract that.

So he has data for 4 elections, essentially....but he says it in this way like it goes back to the FDR days or something (I saw the video clip)

I also seriously doubt that Gallup had a candidate with 50%+ in the '92, vote. If they did they would have blown that prediction badly.

[PhenomenalAJ]

By that logic, you could say John McCain was certain to win in 2008 because no black person had ever been president.