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The last few polls by Rasmussen, WSJ and PPP show Obama pulling ahead of Romney. Rasmussen is particularly interesting because of that poll's strong Republican bias.
This doesn't surprise me at all. The longer this primary goes on with Newt and Mitt, the more damage it does to Mitt's chances.
Quote:
Originally Posted by silas777
basically meaningless Romney is in an intense primary battle with debates virtually every week.......Obama gets to float around , unchallenged with the benefit of free positive press from the msm.
I'm pretty certain you were in the "A lamp post could beat Obama" camp not too long ago. I apologize if I'm wrong. With that said, I've noticed a lot of conservatives have gone from "We got this" to worried rather quickly, and it has all coincided with the primary process.
Quote:
Originally Posted by afoigrokerkok
Bchris, I don't think there's really any chance that Obama will win Georgia or Kentucky or any electoral votes in Nebraska.
I've played around with the map on 270towin.com myself (that's the site you used, right?). It's definitely fun to come up with different possible outcomes - isn't it?
I agree. I also don't think Obama will take PA. I do agree that Arizona is a real possibility. You can't go offending 30 percent of the population and not expect repercussions for your actions.
Bchris, I don't think there's really any chance that Obama will win Georgia, Arizona, or Kentucky or any electoral votes in Nebraska.
I've played around with the map on 270towin.com myself (that's the site you used, right?). It's definitely fun to come up with different possible outcomes - isn't it?
I agree about Kentucky, Georgia, and Arizona though I think the odds of Obama winning AZ are much higher then in the other two. With that said I think Obama will get North Carolina again along with Colorado, Nevada, and Pennsylvania and that should be more then enough to do Romney in.
I think higher employment will be helpful, but I think the main reason for Obama will probably be that Romney is just that bad as a candidate coupled with the fact that evangelical conservatives who are the bulk of the GOP base will be highly unmotivated this year.
The unemployment rate is lower, but only because of people dropping out of the labor force, not so much because of higher employment.
And, if unemployment continues to go down, the discouraged workers will start to come back into the labor force - pushing the unemployment rate up.
FWIW, most economic forecasts I've seen predict that the unemployment rate will be very similar to what it is now in November. No president has been elected with an unemployment rate so high since FDR.
I agree that Romney is a relatively bad candidate and I think Obama has a very good chance, though I disagree with you about the evangelicals (except in North Carolina).
Last edited by afoigrokerkok; 01-28-2012 at 04:00 PM..
I agree. I also don't think Obama will take PA. I do agree that Arizona is a real possibility. You can't go offending 30 percent of the population and not expect repercussions for your actions.
I think it's more likely than not that Obama will win PA, but I don't think he has any real chance in AZ.
BTW, being anti-illegal immigration and being anti-Hispanic are NOT the same.
I agree about Kentucky, Georgia, and Arizona though I think the odds of Obama winning AZ are much higher then in the other two. With that said I think Obama will get North Carolina again along with Colorado, Nevada, and Pennsylvania and that should be more then enough to do Romney in.
I think CO and NV are two states that could go either way. FWIW, those two states have large Mormon populations (as does AZ).
In NC, I actually think Obama has a good chance there if only because of the evangelicals voting against Romney. I think NC is the ONE state where this might hurt Romney significantly, simply because it's a southern state where the percentage of voters who are evangelicals is relatively large and because it's not a solidly Republican state. It's really the only state where I think Romney could lose because of the evangelicals.
I think Romney is more likely to win Virginia than NC, actually.
Romney also has somewhat of a chance of winning Michigan.
It obviously comes down to Florida and Ohio primarily, though Romney would need some other swing states as well (but so would Obama).
The last few polls by Rasmussen, WSJ and PPP show Obama pulling ahead of Romney. Rasmussen is particularly interesting because of that poll's strong Republican bias.
I think CO and NV are two states that could go either way. FWIW, those two states have large Mormon populations (as does AZ).
In NC, I actually think Obama has a good chance there if only because of the evangelicals voting against Romney. I think NC is the ONE state where this might hurt Romney significantly, simply because it's a southern state where the percentage of voters who are evangelicals is relatively large and because it's not a solidly Republican state. It's really the only state where I think Romney could lose because of the evangelicals.
I think Romney is more likely to win Virginia than NC, actually.
Romney also has somewhat of a chance of winning Michigan.
I think it really comes down to Florida and Ohio primarily, though Romney would need some other swing states as well.
Evangelicals are not going to vote for Obama over Romney...no way!
Evangelicals are not going to vote for Obama over Romney...no way!
My point (and randomstudent's point) is that they might not turn out in large enough numbers to vote for Romney. Of course they won't vote for Obama.
What many people seem to forget though, is that Obama supporters are not going to be as energized as they were in 2008 and will not turn out in such large numbers. Therefore, I think any suggestion that Obama will win by a larger margin than in 2008 is laughable. I think the election will be very close. I hope Romney wins, but I am very concerned that he won't. I absolutely think he has a chance though.
The unemployment rate is lower, but only because of people dropping out of the labor force, not so much because of higher employment.
And, if unemployment continues to go down, the discouraged workers will start to come back into the labor force - pushing the unemployment rate up.
FWIW, most economic forecasts I've seen predict that the unemployment rate will be very similar to what it is now in November. No president has been elected with an unemployment rate so high since FDR.
I agree that Romney is a bad candidate and I think Obama has a very good chance, though I disagree with you about the evangelicals.
Here is why I say what I do about conservative evangelicals, and I am going to focus mainly on southern, social conservatives because they are the ones I think think will be least happy with this whole deal. First off they were not all that up beat about McCain even though McCain was one of them, albeit not a very enthusiastic one. He had southern roots, he is a baptist, and he was pretty consistent on social issues.
Romney has nothing that could resemble southern ties, he is not protestent, and he is anything but consistent on social issues. Couple that with the fact that many social conservatives are also economically populist, which Romney is the antithesis of and that if he is nominated and picks a non southern running mate it will be the first time since 1976 that a Republican ticket has not had someone with at least some tie that could be considered vaguely southern. That is not something that will not generate vast excitement and as you can see from the GOP SC primary it looks to be something Romney needs to address.
Romney has nothing that could resemble southern ties, he is not protest, and he is anything but consistent on social issues. Couple that with the fact that many social conservatives are also economically populist, which Romney is the antithesis of and that if he is nominated and picks a non southern running mate it will be the first time since 1976 that a Republican ticket has not had someone with at least some tie that could be considered vaguely southern. That is not something that will not generate vast excitement and as you can see from the GOP SC primary it looks to be something Romney needs to address.
Which is why Romney needs to pick a Southern running mate, though not one that's too far to the right (because he doesn't need to alienate moderate voters).
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