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At age 38, I just hope that things can stabilize in the long run so I'm not having to work at age 60+ to reclaim losses I'm seeing now. I don't know what to think about this country lately...it's quite a clown show.
Observing all of the crap hitting the fan in recent weeks, I'm glad that I spent most of my 20's living the good life, working as little as possible to support my simple, but oh so enjoyable lifestyle. That is something that can't be taken away from me. Even though I spent more time working in my 30's I accumulated little to nothing in the material realm, so there's nothing to be lost from those years of my life. So what I stand to lose materially-financially speaking is the accumulation of the past 18 years. So even though I've got 20 yrs on you Shuffler, we both stand to lose the results of approx 18 yrs labor...but you've probably got more time to recover, should that need arise. Yeah, the whole world must be laughing at the USA right now, thinking they're gettin what they deserve....and who can argue with that? This is the result of electing clowns to run the country for the past 40 or 50 years! A must read book is Kurt Vonneguts, A Man Without A Country.
Last edited by CosmicWizard; 03-17-2008 at 09:35 AM..
Observing all of the crap hitting the fan in recent weeks, I'm glad that I spent most of my 20's living the good life, working as little as possible to support my simple, but oh so enjoyable lifestyle. That is something that can't be taken away from me. Even though I spent more time working in my 30's I accumulated little to nothing in the material realm, so there's nothing to be lost from those years of my life. So what I stand to lose materially-financially speaking is the accumulation of the past 18 years. So even though I've got 20 yrs on you Shuffler, we both stand to lose the results of approx 18 yrs labor...but you've probably got more time to recover, should that need arise. Yeah, the whole world must be laughing at the USA right now, thinking they're gettin what they deserve....and who can argue with that? This is the result of electing clowns to run the country for the past 40 or 50 years! A must read book is Kurt Vonneguts, A Man Without A Country.
I've been wanting to read Vonnegut...my oldest brother was big on him. Thanks for that suggestion.
Why is it that we only hear the bad side of everything. The last time the economy tanked in Colorado was because fuel prices fell after the "bubble" of high oil prices (which caused so many problems in the 1970's US economy) broke. 2 years ago, everyone was complaining about the lack of exports and abundance of imports. Well, the way to fix that is with a weak dollar and now that we have a weak dollar, the whiners are out again. As an exporter, my business is booming. As a homeowner, I just refinanced to 4.75% saving $200 a month. I pay an extra $45 a month in gas from 3 years ago. My friends are engineers and are very busy. Engineering and Architecture are leading indicators for construction.
The latest economic numbers showed no growth for GNP. The commentators said "the economy is coming to a screeching halt." When a number is almost zero, I can see why those idiot commentators would think that, but the informed people on this thread should not be buying into it. With all the recession talk, the headline could have just as easily been, "Recession held off for another quarter." No growth means the economy is the same as before. Only worse in the aspect that it is not growing - and when it was, we got spoiled.
I don't see too many reasonable people suffering (though there are always a few - even in good times.) What I see are greedy people and companies being punished for stupid decisions. (borrowing too much or lending too much) These are effecting the whole economy, but not to the extent the media is making it out to be. These things are not slowing down the economy... they are only slowing down the GROWTH of the economy. Mostly because people are reconsidering their own future actions. This is a good thing. Like watching the drug dealer go to jail. People start to think, "maybe that get rich plan I had was not so good after all."
Things are pretty good. Unemployment is low. Interest rates are low. The trade deficit will improve because of the weak dollar. Now is not the time to crawl into a hole... take advantage of the situation and make some money. If you've ever wanted to start a business, this may be the opportunity you've been waiting for. With so many scared people out there, you might have very little competition.
Here is my philosophy: (I credit Dave Ramsey for much of it though we differ a little)
Then only thing you should ever buy on credit is your house. If you cant pay cash for your car, you can't afford it. Same goes with everything else.
When you buy your house, it should be on a 15 year loan and payments should be less than 25% of your monthly income.
If you get an ARM make sure that the maximum your payment can be in 5 years is 25% of your monthly income. I personally have saved tens of thousands of dollars on ARM's but I manage them carefully. If the economy takes off, the Fed reacts by raising rates. You will not lose your job (or you can sell your house for a profit) and can afford the higher payment. If the economy tanks (or like now, people have that perception) the Fed will lower interest rates and your ARM goes down (or you can then refinance). Either way it is win win and you can only lose if you get an ARM with no equity and have lots of other debt and the economy starts to improve. Then the rates go up. That's what happened last year, and the ironic thing is that this whole mess started because the economy was improving.
I have sympathy for lots of these people because so many "experts" gave them bad advice that they reasonably listened to. Another good thing about today's situation is that those experts are getting run out of town.
cme denver housing index weekly chart (nearby futures)
other housing market charts here... http://chartsrdc.cme.com:443/cs/char...?prodGroup=aip and scroll down and click on "chart". based upon the s&p/case-shiller home price index for 10 major markets (boston, chicago, denver, las vegas, los angeles, miami, new york metro, san diego, san francisco, and washington, d.c.) and a composite index. for those who are risk inclined and fully understand the futures markets, one can hedge their home against future price declines by selling housing futures. but for the majority, it's a quick and dirty look at overall housing trends in the major markets. the denver housing index clearly shows why it's better to rent than buy, at least for now...
Last edited by multitrak; 03-17-2008 at 11:10 AM..
Reason: blather a little more
Thanks for an upbeat, optimistic post in the midst of all this doom and gloom. As a life long doom and gloom pessimist ( in the name of being a realist ) myself, I've been working hard at changing my attitude & outlook, but it's not easy....especailly on this thread. The old cliche misery loves company is so true. The doom and gloom is like a magnet that sucks me in ( shame on me ) and I let it spoil my day. I appreciate your optimistic perspective. THANKS! I'll rep you later after I've spread it around a bit more. Apparently I just repped another post of yours quite recently.
Last edited by CosmicWizard; 03-17-2008 at 11:42 AM..
other housing market charts here... http://chartsrdc.cme.com:443/cs/char...?prodGroup=aip and scroll down and click on "chart". based upon the s&p/case-shiller home price index for 10 major markets (boston, chicago, denver, las vegas, los angeles, miami, new york metro, san diego, san francisco, and washington, d.c.) and a composite index. for those who are risk inclined and fully understand the futures markets, one can hedge their home against future price declines by selling housing futures. but for the majority, it's a quick and dirty look at overall housing trends in the major markets. the denver housing index clearly shows why it's better to rent than buy, at least for now...
I dont want to sound like I am flaming you cause I am sure you have a good heart, but this is exactly the kind of "scare tactic" I see too often. When the scale on a graph does not go to zero it is for 2 reasons. Either to analyze the data in a more detailed fashon for those who understand the big picture, or to exaggerate the small differences for those that do not. For that reason, I would say this graph is useful "for those who are risk inclined and fully understand the futures markets" and a scare tactic for "the majority." It is clearly not "it's a quick and dirty look at overall housing trends in the major markets. the denver housing index clearly shows why it's better to rent than buy, at least for now..."
Now is a great time to buy real estate. Interest rates are at historic lows and sellers are panicking under all the scare tactics. The economy is strong and the dollar is weak (meaning anything you can buy this year for the same or less than it cost 2 years ago is a great value.)
bagz, apparently you haven't read enough of my stuff to know that i pretty much mock the permabears that troll this list and on the net. but facts are facts and data is data...real estate either will go down some more or it's at a low and will go up. buyers and sellers make the markets, and these charts reflect that fact. no scare tactics, just some honest and helpful tools so folks can analyze the housing markets and reason it out for themselves. now ask yourself, would you rather make money or be right? my answer i think you know...
about the cme charts...they're are plotted so as to accentuate price movement. i don't think that a major futures exchange has any axe to grind regarding the scaling of its own data. but as to the chart interpretation, well, that's an exercise best left to the viewer...
Last edited by multitrak; 03-17-2008 at 12:11 PM..
Reason: about those cme charts...
I though you might think I was flaming you, but I merely wanted to point out that I did not think the format of the graph was appropriate for such a thread. I do not disagree with any of the data or the facts. I wanted to point out that the scale makes it look worse than it is. I am sure that you did not create the scale, but the graph was posted on an analysis type website. You put it on a general type website. Your conclusion apparently based only on this graph you was "the denver housing index clearly shows why it's better to rent than buy, at least for now..." Had you not stated that, I would have considered your post simply dissemination of information.
You are correct that future values might be either lower or higher, but the scale on the graph makes it look like the market crashed to almost zero and your last statement on the post was pretty scary.
You are also correct that I am not completely familiar with your past writings. I perused this thread for about 45 minutes and could not believe all of the negative things being written. I thought it would be good to point out the positive aspects of things to give a little balance. Unfortunately yours was the first negative post I saw after making that decision. In Economics there is usually positive aspects to negative news. For example lower house prices means retired people on fixed incomes can afford property taxes another year. Goodness knows that when housing prices go up, we hear about Grandma Jones who must sell her house and move to an area with lower values.
Just trying to write about nice things and unfortunately in doing so, I was not too nice to you. For that I am sorry.
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Not so pessimistic
The last time the economy tanked in Colorado was because fuel prices fell after the "bubble" of high oil prices (which caused so many problems in the 1970's US economy) broke. 2 years ago, everyone was complaining about the lack of exports and abundance of imports. Well, the way to fix that is with a weak dollar and now that we have a weak dollar, the whiners are out again. As an exporter, my business is booming.
My friends are engineers and are very busy.
