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I believe things will slowly get better. It'll take a while to see any big results. Unemployment and personal debt will keep the economy from growing faster. I decided to vote for the 1.0--1.9 growth.
I'm not a follower of any of these economists. Too many of them have been wrong in the past for me to have much faith in their opinion.
I'm willing to admit I could be wrong about the future. I'm just guessing like everyone else.
- Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Companies in the U.S. expanded in December at the fastest pace in almost four years, signaling the economic recovery is gaining speed heading into 2010. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said today its barometer rose to 60, exceeding the most optimistic estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the highest level since January 2006. The gauge, in which readings greater than 50 signal expansion, showed companies boosted production and employment as orders climbed.
- Caterpillar Inc. is among companies that may recall dismissed staff, pointing to gains in employment that will drive consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy. “Manufacturing is now moving into recovery,” said David Sloan, senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York, whose estimate was the highest among economists surveyed. “Inventories are rebuilding and exports are looking strong,
So, is it a real deal recovery or just a flash in the pan stimulus bump?
IMO: To feed, clothe, house, transport, care for, entertain, clean up after the 6,000,000,000+ people on the planet, and their employers, is going to create a certain level of business activity. A "roaring bull market"? No. But moving forward? Yes.
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Here's an interesting read from major Supply Side guy Larry Kudlow. It seems he's turned into a major believer that not only is the economy recovering, we even are in for a bit of a boom.
Now, having said that, he's unwilling to credit the Administration for it (why am I not surprised), but nevertheless acknowledges that recovery IS coming and it's likely to be FAR STRONGER and arrive FAR QUICKER than most pundits think - certainly more so than the "Doom and Gloom" crowd on this board do.
"In fact, it is coming back. In 2009, the stock market had one of its greatest rebounds in history. And in 2010, we’re likely to witness a mini boom in economic growth.
If you believe in miracles, as I do, this looks like a miracle. If you have faith in free-market capitalism, as I do, then somehow this faith is being rewarded by a more durable and resilient free-enterprise capitalism than many of us thought possible only one year ago.
If you believe in the supply-side model of growth, including low marginal tax rates, a reliable King Dollar, and limited government, yes, you have very little to cheer about. Yet market-based forecasting variables are all pointing to a stronger-than-expected economic rebound in the new year."
The numbers are manipulated, so this question has no meaning. I am going to get as far away from the cities and in a rural area with abundant water. Peak oil will definately limit future "growth".
- Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Companies in the U.S. expanded in December at the fastest pace in almost four years, signaling the economic recovery is gaining speed heading into 2010. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said today its barometer rose to 60, exceeding the most optimistic estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the highest level since January 2006. The gauge, in which readings greater than 50 signal expansion, showed companies boosted production and employment as orders climbed.
- Caterpillar Inc. is among companies that may recall dismissed staff, pointing to gains in employment that will drive consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy. “Manufacturing is now moving into recovery,” said David Sloan, senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York, whose estimate was the highest among economists surveyed. “Inventories are rebuilding and exports are looking strong,
So, is it a real deal recovery or just a flash in the pan stimulus bump?
IMO: To feed, clothe, house, transport, care for, entertain, clean up after the 6,000,000,000+ people on the planet, and their employers, is going to create a certain level of business activity. A "roaring bull market"? No. But moving forward? Yes.
Yup, good news indeed.
I can't help but remember this post I made 2 months ago mentioning Caterpillar management being really UP about the economic rebound. At the time one of the "Doom and Gloom" crowd was belittling the chance of a recovery:
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor
That's not what the CEO's of Intel, J. Crew, Caterpillar, Amazon.com, Texas Instruments, and many other companies have reported in the last few weeks. ALL of them are forecasting improved demand for their products.
But I guess those folks know less about their business than you do eh?
Ken
Looks like that optimism on the part of the CEO's of Intel, J Crew, Caterpillar, Amazon.com, Texas Instruments and many others is bearing fruit. I guess THOSE folks knew a bit more about what was going on in their respective industries than the Obamabashers did. Why am I not surprised?
The numbers are manipulated, so this question has no meaning. I am going to get as far away from the cities and in a rural area with abundant water. Peak oil will definately limit future "growth".
My guess is just as good as anyone else's, but I do beleive that we will see economic growth in 2010. A few reasons for my optomistic outlook:
Consumer confidence is slowly returning, and consumers are opening their wallets again. Spending is still very cautious, but the trend is turning positive. Early indications show that holiday spending this year was up slightly from last year. Shelves are basically picked bare from low inventories this season. The need to replenish those shelves will likely create an increase in demand for goods early next year.
I beleive that the unemployment situation will slowly improve in 2010, especially as we move into the latter part of the year. One year ago as the recession was really picking up steam, companies did alot of "panic layoffs." As demand picks back up and the need for labor increases, job growth is likely to pick up as well. More companies plan to hire in 2010:
I'm not surprised to see so much pessimism among the general public. Economists tend to look ahead, while the general public looks at what is happening now:
"Part of the disagreement between economists and the public view of the economy is a difference in how recession and recovery are defined. Economists believe a recession is over and a recovery begins when the economy has hit bottom."
"If you fall into a hole, the time that you're falling is the recession. Once you hit the bottom, the recession is over. But you're still in the hole," said Vitner. "Most non-economists think the recovery doesn't begin until you're out of the hole."
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Seriously though, there have been a number of analysts saying that when the December jobs reports comes out (next week, I think) it's going to show that December actually had a net INCREASE in jobs (first time that's happened in many, many months). While I'm not entirely sure that will be the case, it will - at the very least - show something more or less equating to "break even". Certainly job creation is not very far off. As I'm sure you know, I've been saying for months now that job creation will begin in the spring. Now, it's starting to look more and more like that prediction on mine was actually PESSIMISTIC and that job creation will come EARLIER.
In this case I don't mind being wrong one little bit.
Ken
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2010 Predictions for the U.S. Economy?
