Economic effect of Iran War (debt, sell, money, cost)
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Say Bush launches an attack on Iran tomorrow and oil rises to $300/bbl immediately. What will be the short and mid-term economic effects of this? Its starting to look more and more likely each day.
If that happens I'll be going down to the local shop and loading up on 7.62, 12gauge, and 30-06. If I happen to see any 1973 Ford Falcons I will probably steal it. I already have the perfect dog to ride shotgun with me across the countryside.
Location: Sitting on a bar stool. Guinness in hand.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bchris02
Say Bush launches an attack on Iran tomorrow and oil rises to $300/bbl immediately. What will be the short and mid-term economic effects of this? Its starting to look more and more likely each day.
Well my guesstimate is if bush only launches some missiles or dropped some bombs on target. I think oil may go up to $175 in 2 days or so. Then would slow back off to lower levels $140 -$145 in two months.
If Bush commits any ground forces.
1. Bush will be impeached. Which will show lack of faith by the people in their government and the dollar will plummet.
2. Oil will reach $220 in two days
3. The cost of Iraq will pale in comparison to what it will cost to fight Iran. We will go into debt into the trillions of dollars.
4. Russian will laugh all the way to the bank with record oil profits thanks to the new American war.
Say Bush launches an attack on Iran tomorrow and oil rises to $300/bbl immediately. What will be the short and mid-term economic effects of this? Its starting to look more and more likely each day.
Little if any effect.
Iran has 5% of the world's oil, but 4% of the world's oil is located in Kuzehstan. The other 1% is in the provinces of East and West Azir on the Azerbaijani border
The ground war will last 3 - 8 days depending on the level of surprise achieved. Once the US controls the province, oil production will resume. Iran shipped a lot of its oil through the Kuwaiti-Saudi pipeline to other processing facilities before Kuwait was invaded. A no-bid contract to Haliburton will have that contract operational in no time. The Iranians also used the Iraqi-Syrian pipeline until the Iraq-Iran War, and again, a no-bid contract to Haliburton will have that up and running.
Any damage to processing facilities at Khorramshar, Abadan, or Bandar-e-Emam-Khomeini can be fixed giving a no-bid contract to Haliburton.
Since most of the crude in Kuzehstan is heavy sour, it shouldn't affect light crude prices. The light crudes are in the fields in East Azir and West Azir.
The only pipeline that goes through the Zagros Mountains is a natural gas pipeline, and it doesn't really go through the mountains, it goes through the foot-hills over near the eastern approaches. Unless the US has pity on Iran, Haliburton can re-route it with a no-bid contract.
The Iranians would suffer more than Americans would. With the loss of 80% of their oil, Iran would instantly become a net-importer, except there's nowhere to import it, unless the US has pity and doesn't destroy the port at Bandar Abbas in the Straits.
The Iranians already ration gasoline and diesel, so the loss of 80% of their oil along with 65% to 70% of the countries revenues will through the country into chaos. The economy will collapse, and then government as it runs out of money and can't pay government employees, or the military or pay any benefits (housing, food and health care are heavily subsidized).
Short term, oil may spike with fears Iran may be able to disrupt supplies, within days as Iran's military capability is destroyed, oil will come down and once Iran is no longer a threat in the region oil will continue to drop to 2007 levels. Being unable to strong-arm their neighbors, and with sanctions cutting off needed necessities the government will be facing a lot of opposition.
Location: Sitting on a bar stool. Guinness in hand.
4,428 posts, read 6,516,713 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom
Short term, oil may spike with fears Iran may be able to disrupt supplies, within days as Iran's military capability is destroyed, oil will come down and once Iran is no longer a threat in the region oil will continue to drop to 2007 levels. Being unable to strong-arm their neighbors, and with sanctions cutting off needed necessities the government will be facing a lot of opposition.
I don't disagree that Iran's military will not stand a chance against the U.S.
But the problem (at least I believe that) Iran will run out small scale terrorist attacks against refineries and pipelines across the middle east. Basically they will be a general nuisance that will help shorten up supplies of oil from the area and the price of oil will rise. They probably also use operatives in Syria to start small hit and run operations in Israel. Further destabilizing the region. And again this will rise the price of oil.
Going to war against a nation who has an embargo. Hmm.
How is that different than going to war with Peru?
No oil is effected either way. Yes they have oil, but it is not the right kind, nor are they allowed to sell it.
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