Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
obviously with huge increases of the money supply, prices are going to sky rocket. Is the treasury actually going to print up dollars to all of the money that the Fed created? If they didn't, wouldn't the dollar still retain some value? Or do you think the Fed will contract the money supply like they did in the 1930's? And our national debt. What happens? Does the government borrow money created by the Fed to pay the debts, or do they just say screw it, I'm not paying the debt? I'm just trying to get a basic understanding of how it's all going to go down. I personally think they'll inflate the dollar out of existance and introduce a new currency (Amero anyone?). Does inflation get so out of control that people are no longer to afford their standard of living? Does this lead to massive foreclosure of pretty much everything the banks made loans on?
How much paper currency is actually in circulation anyway? How did money even evolve into something that people universally accepted as having real value. The more I think about it, the less it makes sense. Gold doesn't even make sense. What guy decided he liked shiney metal more than food, or horses, or land, or some other commodity with real value anyway? Barter is the only thing I can think of that's logical. The more I think about money and credit in general, the more abstract it becomes.
I'm just trying to get a basic understanding of how it's all going to go down.
I've seen enough of your posts to know this isn't the case, you want to talk back and forth with people that agree with your doom and gloom. If you want to actually learn try reading some great blogs like:
From this chart you will also note that M3 has actually grown a lot. The Fed no longer uses M3, for good reasons. But some of course think otherwise.
This is what is actually funny is people here keep talking about "printing" blah blah. Its only M3 that has increased recently and M3 is not a good predictor of inflation (And again of course some disagree). The increases of M3 of course have nothing to do with actual currency, if it did you'll see a big increase in M0.
Quote:
Barter is the only thing I can think of that's logical.
Oh yeah, what do you plan to pay your dentist with? But lets go back over 3000 years and start to barter again.
Lastly, a "hyper-inflationary depression" is an oxymoron. If people think we are currently experiencing hyper-inflation...then you may be rather surprised if and when inflation really gets out of hand.
Spreading of bad information is really going to lead people astray. Posting all these links means absolutly nothing just like posting CPI and jobless claims doesn't. M3 is the measure that is most important and any first year econ major will tell you that. Fed no longer posts M3 its not that they don't use it, it is no longer Posted. I will allow you guys to figure out why. Also look up what M3 is compared with M0, M1 and M2, it is the most inclusive of all of them (or it was)
link (google the info, there is far more out there)
I implore you guys to do research and don't take info from just anyone. As I have said millions of times, I have a degree in econ. and to say M3 is not important is laughable. Just as using CPI to argue your point of inflation is laughable. Do research my friends, the info is out there.
That clears things up a ton. Gotta love monetary theory. So if the treasury doesn't print all of the M3 money into existance, actual paper cash and hard assets will be king when things crash? What happens when the bankers sieze everything of any real value when people can't pay their loans? Do they forgive the debt of borrowers in exchange for their servitude? Is the government going to enforce this for the bankers? Is the government going to force it's deficit spending debts on us? Why would the government even pay debts to the Fed and other countries when it can just say we've got nukes so **** off? What happens when a band of renegade patriots get together and decide not to pay? How much longer is living on borrowed money sustainable? With all of the right people in place, could we even turn this thing around?
Humanoid, again I would advocate -- Put the books and numbers down and see the real world.
The best that numbers and modeling does is create an approx model of the real world. When that model does not match the real world -- It is the numbers and models that are in error.
There are numerous examples of countries with concurrent hyperinflation and depression. Usually in the face of growing and crushing foreign and local debt. (sound like a country you live in?) Weimar Republic is a classic example. Currently Zimbabwe. While those are extreme examples, they are worthy cautions about where our current path leads.
This is a juicy read, absorb it thoroughly....
About half way down the page it really gets interesting....
The BKX bank stock index is staring at the precipice, for huge additional declines. The technical breakdown receives little press or network coverage, probably because it smashes their propaganda messages from the last month or more. The bank recovery is nowhere visible. In fact, several important banks have announced increased expected losses in just the last couple weeks, precisely as my forecast has stated consistently and without hesitation. Housing prices are accelerating downward, which precede yet another round of bank bond losses. My forecast is for future losses to be centered mainly in the prime rated category, and losses to be larger in magnitude than the subprime category. Prepare for a second bigger and more painful round of bank destruction. Their balance sheets are depleted of capital. They are not prepared with loss reserves or basic remaining capital to withstand what comes next. Their core capital is on a net basis totally borrowed. Major bank names and many midsized banks will be forced into bankruptcy in the next year or more, as they fail to resupply cash into capital. Another major breakdown is in progress. The bearish triangle base, shown recently in another public article, has been breached. The target is 56 in an earth-shattering decline. Even Goldman Sachs was downgraded by a major analyst this week. Be clear in the message, that the entire US financial industry is insolvent, in ruins, and not easily remedied. The sector has been led to the toilet by housing bubble that busted dramatically in a very predictable manner. A nation cannot build an economy atop a housing bubble and expect to survive
This is a juicy read, absorb it thoroughly....
About half way down the page it really gets interesting....
The BKX bank stock index is staring at the precipice, for huge additional declines. The technical breakdown receives little press or network coverage, probably because it smashes their propaganda messages from the last month or more. The bank recovery is nowhere visible. In fact, several important banks have announced increased expected losses in just the last couple weeks, precisely as my forecast has stated consistently and without hesitation. Housing prices are accelerating downward, which precede yet another round of bank bond losses. My forecast is for future losses to be centered mainly in the prime rated category, and losses to be larger in magnitude than the subprime category. Prepare for a second bigger and more painful round of bank destruction. Their balance sheets are depleted of capital. They are not prepared with loss reserves or basic remaining capital to withstand what comes next. Their core capital is on a net basis totally borrowed. Major bank names and many midsized banks will be forced into bankruptcy in the next year or more, as they fail to resupply cash into capital. Another major breakdown is in progress. The bearish triangle base, shown recently in another public article, has been breached. The target is 56 in an earth-shattering decline. Even Goldman Sachs was downgraded by a major analyst this week. Be clear in the message, that the entire US financial industry is insolvent, in ruins, and not easily remedied. The sector has been led to the toilet by housing bubble that busted dramatically in a very predictable manner. A nation cannot build an economy atop a housing bubble and expect to survive
I pretty much agree with this assessment. I am concerned enough about the potential solvency of the banking system that I wouldn't keep any funds in a bank over the FDIC insurance limit. Some more radical than I am go so far as to think that the FDIC itself could fail. I don't see that happening, only because the government can not afford to let it. Were the FDIC to welch on its guarantees to depositors, it would lead to a massive run on the banks that would totally collapse the US financial system overnight. Unfortunately, the government's only recourse to "bail out" the FDIC so it could make good on its guarantees to depositors is to "start up the printing presses." That will lead to a highly inflationary environment and exploding federal deficits. In that scenario we WOULD have an inflationary depression as most lenders (as many banks did in the 1980's) would find it far more lucrative simply to invest in the flood of federal treasury securities that would have to be issued, rather than lending money to private citizens or businesses. That would lead to a credit crunch that would essentially make credit unavailable to all but the most creditworthy private borrowers. In order both to try to reign in inflation and attract sufficient capital for its securities, the government would have to pay high interest rates on securities it issues, which will further constrict the availability of private credit.
It all is somewhat of a vicious circle, but the bottom line to all of it is that America--both its citizens and government--has been living well beyond its means, and now the bill is coming due. The end result is going to be a massive general decline in the material standard of living in this country--and one that is likely to persist--possibly for a generation or more. There is no pleasant pain-free solution for this. It is going to hurt--and plenty--for a long time. My biggest fear is whether our social and political fabric can hold up to the stress--if it doesn't, a "Hitler" promising to fix everything in exchange for absolute power could actually come to fruition in this country.
" It all is somewhat of a vicious circle, but the bottom line to all of it is that America--both its citizens and government--has been living well beyond its means, and now the bill is coming due. The end result is going to be a massive general decline in the material standard of living in this country--and one that is likely to persist--possibly for a generation or more. There is no pleasant pain-free solution for this. It is going to hurt--and plenty--for a long time. My biggest fear is whether our social and political fabric can hold up to the stress--if it doesn't, a "Hitler" promising to fix everything in exchange for absolute power could actually come to fruition in this country."
Does everyone have a rural property in the waiting? Not a bad idea if you ask me. Call it insurance for uncertain times.
Here's a link..this guy has been figuring what M3 should be since the gov't stopped posting it. M3 is very telling and I don't understand why the government says it's not important. Well, maybe I do
Seeing these numbers from the above site seems more in line with what I see around me..the increasing costs of everything. I think inflation is much more than what the government is telling us.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
