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Every one of these markets is a bubble EXCEPT ours.
Very bold statement
A devalued dollar is in play here. Their inflation rate is less than ours.
Our dollar since 2001 has dropped 37% in value while :
The British pound is up 33.3%, Australian dollar is up 40.2%,Canadian dollar is up 43.0% ,Swiss franc is up 45.4%, and euro has jumped 46.5%
Which the fed removing the M3 report we have little clue if the dollar is worst off since the large rate cuts. But according to the fed there will be no recession.
Since he's never really been wrong in such a way to lose considerable amounts of money, I would venture to say he's correct this time around. Peter Schiff tripled his earnings in only 7 years.
Take a room with 1000 people, give them each a coin. Now do a sequence of coin flips, if you flip heads you stay in the room otherwise you leave. Now, roughly you'll have the following:
1st flip - 500 left
2nd flip - 250 left
3rd flip - 125 left
4th flip - 62 left
5th flip - 31 left
6th flip - 15 left
7th flip - 7 left
Now, consider fund managers etc and market predictions. Just as the case above you'll have people that made the correct flip 7 times, but there is nothing special about them. They are no different than the 7 people left in the room. I find it amazing anybody takes Petter seriously, his arguments are so poor its almost like he hasn't picked up a text in economics.
Our dollar since 2001 has dropped 37% in value while :
The British pound is up 33.3%, Australian dollar is up 40.2%,Canadian dollar is up 43.0% ,Swiss franc is up 45.4%, and euro has jumped 46.5%
Which the fed removing the M3 report we have little clue if the dollar is worst off since the large rate cuts. But according to the fed there will be no recession.
This is mostly a function of monetary policy,ECB has been loath to cut rates as it sees an inflationary enviorment,Fed has opted to discount inflation fears in the hope of stoking growth,it won't,and will set us back to a period of slower growth,then we'll have to do what Paul Volcker did in the (big)80's,rachet interest rates back up,once investors get a whiff off rate hikes,look out Wall St!Remember,the stock market moves up,down,sideways whatever...but the bond market NEVER lies,all this rate cutting by the Fed?REAL rates have been going up.Not a healthy outlook by any means.
This is mostly a function of monetary policy,ECB has been loath to cut rates as it sees an inflationary enviorment,Fed has opted to discount inflation fears in the hope of stoking growth,it won't,and will set us back to a period of slower growth,then we'll have to do what Paul Volcker did in the (big)80's,rachet interest rates back up,once investors get a whiff off rate hikes,look out Wall St!Remember,the stock market moves up,down,sideways whatever...but the bond market NEVER lies,all this rate cutting by the Fed?REAL rates have been going up.Not a healthy outlook by any means.
The Bond bubble is likely to burst any day. Central banks purchase many of these sour investments to keep interest rates artificially low. Very few individuals investors actually buy these junk-ish bonds.
The lion's share of treasury purchases are by banks in the Caribbean. Hedge funds and other shady deals.
Take a room with 1000 people, give them each a coin. Now do a sequence of coin flips, if you flip heads you stay in the room otherwise you leave. Now, roughly you'll have the following:
1st flip - 500 left
2nd flip - 250 left
3rd flip - 125 left
4th flip - 62 left
5th flip - 31 left
6th flip - 15 left
7th flip - 7 left
Now, consider fund managers etc and market predictions. Just as the case above you'll have people that made the correct flip 7 times, but there is nothing special about them. They are no different than the 7 people left in the room. I find it amazing anybody takes Petter seriously, his arguments are so poor its almost like he hasn't picked up a text in economics.
Now, I didn't major in probability and statistics. My doctoral studies are in natural language understanding within the computer science cirriculum, and while we do use some statistical models to prove/disprove hypotheses, I'm by no means an expert in the probability field but I think I can address this.
You are suggesting that probability can ween down a large group of folks into a small group that appear statistically accurate over a long term. I would agree with your initial thought. However, given the population of bear pundits who have been televised over the past 10 years, of which there are very few (much much much much less than 1000), how can one person (Peter in this case), be consistently right in his accuracy? He admitted on Fox Business that he is not clairvoyant (when the host jokingly asked for that night's lottery numbers), but he understands the fundamental markets. Austrian economists have a fairly consistent track record on their GENERAL predictions as to the short to mid term outcome.
Take a room with 1000 people, give them each a coin. Now do a sequence of coin flips, if you flip heads you stay in the room otherwise you leave. Now, roughly you'll have the following:
1st flip - 500 left
2nd flip - 250 left
3rd flip - 125 left
4th flip - 62 left
5th flip - 31 left
6th flip - 15 left
7th flip - 7 left
Now, consider fund managers etc and market predictions. Just as the case above you'll have people that made the correct flip 7 times, but there is nothing special about them. They are no different than the 7 people left in the room. I find it amazing anybody takes Petter seriously, his arguments are so poor its almost like he hasn't picked up a text in economics.
Did Peter flip a coin to make his predictions? If not, your argument is a non sequitur followed up by an unsubstantiated contention that his arguments are poor.
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Taiwan
