My 2013 predictions... (bankrupt, 2015, debt, taxes)

[bchris02]

2013 is going to be the year the crap hits the fan for the US economy. Everybody's worst case fears from 2009 will come true in 2013. This is going to be one tough year for America and will be the beginning of the complete collapse of the US economy. Here are a few things I predict just this year.

-We go over the fiscal cliff: Dow 9000 at least by February.
-A new farm bill is not passed - food prices more than double in January
-In Q2 and Q3 we will average between 700,000 and 1,100,000 job losses per month
-Dow 4000 by September
-Oil spike initially as people pull their money out of stocks and into commodities, but a spectacular crash during the second half of the year taking oil down to $50/bbl
-Unemployment above 20% by year end (with real unemployment over 30%)
-Riots and civil unrest in many cities across the country
-Most chain big box and grocery stores will disappear. High end luxury retailers will also go bankrupt. Most malls will become ghost malls. Wal-Mart will be the last man standing

Get ready for the worst year for the US economy since 1930.

2013 will however be a better year than 2014 and 2015 in which near all out civil war will break loose as American society completely collapses around us.

[Escort Rider]

To Bchris02: Given your rather consistent history of being wrong in your economic forecasts here on City-Data over the past couple of years, why do you expect that anyone would take you seriously now? For you, collapse and catastrophe are always just around the corner; you just keep pushing the dates ahead.

[EmeraldCityWanderer]

bchris02 I have watched people post your history of being wildly wrong in your predictions, and you refuse to acknowledge that all of them have been wrong. You just keep making new predictions again and again expecting people to believe you.

Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is a sign of psychosis, along with this obsession to predict the end of things, so you really should think about help. It is not to be insulting, but I hate to see lives wasted by illness.

[pie_row]

Originally Posted by bchris02

2013 is going to be the year the crap hits the fan for the US economy. Everybody's worst case fears from 2009 will come true in 2013. This is going to be one tough year for America and will be the beginning of the complete collapse of the US economy. Here are a few things I predict just this year.

The flaw in your ointment is the plunge protection team. The fed will keep the DOW above 12k. It will.

Originally Posted by bchris02

-We go over the fiscal cliff: Dow 9000 at least by February.

Printing more money. Gold up not DOW down.

Originally Posted by bchris02

-A new farm bill is not passed - food prices more than double in January

Maybe more than that.

Originally Posted by bchris02

-In Q2 and Q3 we will average between 700,000 and 1,100,000 job losses per month

Or more.

Originally Posted by bchris02

-Dow 4000 by September

See above. Gold $24k?

Originally Posted by bchris02

-Oil spike initially as people pull their money out of stocks and into commodities, but a spectacular crash during the second half of the year taking oil down to $50/bbl

Too much printing of money for this to happen.

Originally Posted by bchris02

-Unemployment above 20% by year end (with real unemployment over 30%)

The number published will not approach this number. The true numbers will be higher.

Originally Posted by bchris02

-Riots and civil unrest in many cities across the country

No. To many people sitting at home on food stamps complaining about no0t having a really good paying job to do for that.

Originally Posted by bchris02

-Most chain big box and grocery stores will disappear. High end luxury retailers will also go bankrupt. Most malls will become ghost malls. Wal-Mart will be the last man standing

No the propaganda machine will have it all not so bad.

Originally Posted by bchris02

Get ready for the worst year for the US economy since 1930.

Ya but it will be largely papered over.

Originally Posted by bchris02

2013 will however be a better year than 2014 and 2015 in which near all out civil war will break loose as American society completely collapses around us.

You have over estimated the populaces level of discontent.

[pie_row]

Originally Posted by EmeraldCityWanderer

bchris02 I have watched people post your history of being wildly wrong in your predictions, and you refuse to acknowledge that all of them have been wrong. You just keep making new predictions again and again expecting people to believe you.

But for the Fed manipulating stock prices he would be correct.

Originally Posted by EmeraldCityWanderer

Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is a sign of psychosis, along with this obsession to predict the end of things, so you really should think about help. It is not to be insulting, but I hate to see lives wasted by illness.

He just doesn't get the actions of our privately owned central bank.

[YAZ]

Not a fiscal cliff, more of a fiscal slope.

At least 2 years for folks to REALLY feel it.

Steady decline of wealth throughout this year mainly felt through the higher prices of commodities.

These higher prices are a direct result of the steady devaluation of our American dollars.

When oil goes off the dollar standard, look out.

[eskercurve]

Looks like another fear lemming bit the propogandist's bait. Hook, line, sinker.

How's it feel to be suckered into a cult of doomsayers?

[pie_row]

http://www.bearishnews.com/wp-conten...l-debt-gdp.jpg

Originally Posted by eskercurve

Looks like another fear lemming bit the propogandist's bait. Hook, line, sinker.

Are you capable of independent reasoning?

Originally Posted by eskercurve

How's it feel to be suckered into a cult of doomsayers?

What happens when you print 2/3 of a countries budget short fall each year for a long enough time?


What happens when you cut spending and raise taxes enough to correct this?


What happens when you have 400% of GDP as total debt in a country?


What happens when people say we want something of real value instead of US dollars?


What is the long term outcome of having more than a 5% trade deficit with one country?


Who is not in touch with reality me or you?

[Ollie1946]

Do all you can not to be standing in front of the fan.

The missing piece is a "black swan" event that can upset all prognostications. Examples.

Aliens from space land and offer to "serve man" OR contact is made with aliens in deep space. Religion collapses worldwide except for Islam.

China and Japan go to war and the US is obligated by treaty to support Japan. US cancels debts to Chinese.

North Korea detonates atomic weapon in Seoul. All bets off everywhere.

The mother of all earthquakes devastates California.

The Gulf Stream (Atlantic conveyor) ceases to flow. Europe freezes to death. End of Euro plus.

Yellowstone Caldera comes to life. Who cares about gold.

Terrorists use mutated Smallpox virus and deploy it in the US and Europe.

US nuclear reactor fails and a Chernobyl occurs in river city.

The Madrid fault gives way and destroys the concentration of manufacturing along the MS river, perhaps the refineries as well.

The drought continues and the MS River becomes unusable for barge traffic. The grain production in the Midwest ceases.

China turns inward--a second cultural revolution occurs.

Things could be worse.

[eskercurve]

Which country has 400% debt to GDP? Zimbabwe? Congo?

Personally I'm more in touch with reality than the prior two posters. The last one should go to the self-sufficiency and preparedness forum, plenty of kooks willing to chat up a storm.

In the past 4 years the doomsayers said we will have hyperinflation, blah blah blah and society will collapse, better stock up on seeds, water, and survival gear, blah blah blah.

But the reality is we're still here. If anything, this is reminiscent of the late 70s than the Depression. Back in the depression the central bank tightened lending and we ended up worsening the crisis. Inflating the currency through default swaps and simply putting money back in where there was vacuum left over is the right approach.

So stop with the silly talk, and let the adults discuss things here. Thank you.