A new recession worse than the first?

[newonecoming2]

Originally Posted by bradykp

eh. people love talking about manufacturing. even though it's not as large a part of our economy, we are still the largest manufacturer in the world. also, as for where we buy our goods from? check out this link: How Much Do We Buy From China? : Planet Money : NPR

and don't forget, the world is a large consumer of our goods and services too.

our economy won't grow how it used to, but that doesn't mean it will shrink just because it doesn't grow at 3%+ per year.

There are some macro economic issues that tend to push for a much smaller economy than we have now. The falling price of houses. This tends to drive up unemployment. The fed's printing press tends to drive up the price of the stuff we need to live. Less money to spend each month and less money to borrow each month. This means that the economy will contract.

The debt multiplier has swung negative. The cost of servicing our debt is too high to be sustained so we need to restructure our economy. If you read what I've written you will see what I think needs to be done. In the absence of this the economy will contract strongly.

[Philip T]

We cut our income from Energy/Power Land (used to do a lot of design/build/engineering in Coal, Oil, etc.) to mostly Renewable projects, now. At the gross dollar level probably to about half -- but I do not see where we are living in any sort of lack.

Some things have even gotten better. Better work schedules, and most folks we deal with on this (Renewable) side of the business are very happy to see us coming. Coal and Oil (and growth, growth, growth) not so much. Mostly good folks back then, too, but everyone sort of knew it was a fooked up thing, so there was just some grim determination to do the fooked thing.

Even our housing has become better -- we now have better (and better) housing as that part of the collapse of the housing (must build, must build, growth-for-the-sake-of-growth) economy.

I am thinking the problem is measuring in "Quantity." What is the "Quantity" in the bank account? How Many square feet in the house? What is the total compensation in the Salary? What is the gross revenue of the business? None of those really speak to how things really are.

I am thinking maybe we have a Massive Cultural measurement problem. I know at first glance that sounds pretty wild -- but look at how distorted other views in other places and people have created and measured their worth, and when that becomes distorted, they are harmed.

For the US in general -- money has come to look like a weight management problem. There are gross gluttons stuffing all they can from All They Can Eat buffet, there are also economic anorexics, other folks producing stuff that actually harms and poisons US, some folks locked out and starving. All driven by twisted self-perceptions, self-worth, and huge amounts of distorted perspectives.

Here is what I am starting to think -- What we are actually having is a severe measuring problem -- Measuring in Quantity (how much, as it were) as opposed to Measuring in Quality (the amount of "goodness," as it were).

So why exactly -- do we need Growth for the Sake of Growth, anyway?

I understand that is how someone's math was set up. Have done all the Industrial Engineering multi-year cash flow analysis assuming some set returns, interest, inflation -- all that. I get it. B U T those are just some numbers in models.

When we find the model does not work as the real world does -- we are supposed to go back and change the model to match the world -- not insist the world around us is wrong and needs to be fixed.

[quickguide1]

Their all pretty bad now from what i see

[newonecoming2]

Originally Posted by Philip T

So why exactly -- do we need Growth for the Sake of Growth, anyway?

Full employment, that is the short answer. We need the economy at 100% or close to it for the sake of the deficit etc. At 100% we need to grow the economy into a long term healthy structure.