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Peak oil is not what happens when oil goes from 85 million barrels to zero. It happens when it needs to go above 85 million, and can't.
You're failing to take into account that most people have already locked themselves into a lifestyle that is oil/gas dependent. How are 100-million people going to abandon their homes which are not in walking distance to their work, their shopping, or even public transportation? People can't "start to decide" to do things different, when their lifestyle is already locked in place. Over a period, new families can make non-gas dependent choices, but you can't have construction of 100-million new homes in places where gas dependency is not a factor, and just board up the windows of most existing houses. Especially, with no gas to fuel the transport of all those building material to appropriate new sites.
Its called pricing. Most of the world demands a lot of gold and diamond jewelry, but pricing keeps it out of reach for the masses. Oil will get repriced and demand will drop. There is at least 5 million spare barrels of capacity per day now and it could get much higher unless demand spikes. If not for pricing signal yes demand would increase gradually, but the pricing signal is strong in 6-12 months time and will end the increase pretty abruptly.
The problem in this country is that the entire economy and living arrangement is geared to run on cheap, plentiful oil--and much of that arrangement is structural, not easily changed without massive capital investment. If either condition, cheap oil or plentiful oil, is not met, then the US economy and lifestyle craters as we know it. Here is the blunt truth: If oil prices increased to the point that gasoline and diesel fuel cost $10 per gallon or fuel became chronically short in supply, there would be alternatives that would become available--AT THAT PRICE. There is the rub--at that price, a whole lot of Americans would likely starve. Why? Chronic permanent unemployment, extremely expensive transportation costs, and inadequate cheap food supplies. At the very least, the material living standards of all but the most wealthy Americans will plummet. Even $5-$6 per gallon at the pump will get that process going in earnest. We Americans do not want to hear that, much less prepare for it--so I suspect that the coming crises will be deep, painful, protracted, and--for some--deadly.
Its called pricing. Most of the world demands a lot of gold and diamond jewelry, but pricing keeps it out of reach for the masses. Oil will get repriced and demand will drop. There is at least 5 million spare barrels of capacity per day now and it could get much higher unless demand spikes. If not for pricing signal yes demand would increase gradually, but the pricing signal is strong in 6-12 months time and will end the increase pretty abruptly.
There's a difference between the world WANTING gold and diamonds, and the world NEEDING oil in order to continue to flourish economically at its accustomed level of productivity and growth. When there is something the world needs, the world will find a way to just take it, and not negotiate with speculation "terrorists".
What all the doom and gloom and scare mongers will conveniently ignore is the facts:
1) Diesel production is easy and we can extract diesel from many different sources, even switchgrass (GM bought out a patent and the rights to the technology from a farmer who invented it, and switchgrass grows EVERYWHERE and doesn't compete with the food supply).
2) Waste Vegetable Oil, or WVO, can be used in diesel engines (even did a demonstration on Top Gear)
3) Natural gas - The US alone has enough natural gas to sustain our gasoline and energy needs for 180 years at today's levels.
4) Supply and demand. As the oil supply weakens, other energy sources will step in and take over.
It is an interesting picture though ... at one point, the USA had three equally sized car energy markets - electric, diesel, and gas. Eventually gasoline won out and became the norm. The others can easily be made the norm. Hell, even farmers were making diesel gas out of peanut oil. So peanut butter prices will go up. Whoop de doo!
Gee, logic and technology really escape the doomsayers. We can't expect much from them though, poor souls. I have often wondered what it must be like for someone to live like Chicken Little. THE SKY'S FALLING!
LMFAO! Go back under a rock and let the rest of us live our lives in this interesting and DYNAMIC world. Sorry if change happens. Change is scary, I know *pats little head of the doomsayer, after taking off the tin foil hat*
Well currently oil inventories are quite high due to an economy stuck in a depression but a United States collapse may happen due to the usual suspects like a overextended military, debt, financial crisis, broken political system, corporate welfare, out of control central bankers, etc.
I think this scenario is more likely. To the list I'd add: spiraling Medicare & Social Security costs.
What all the doom and gloom and scare mongers will conveniently ignore is the facts:
1) Diesel production is easy and we can extract diesel from many different sources, even switchgrass (GM bought out a patent and the rights to the technology from a farmer who invented it, and switchgrass grows EVERYWHERE and doesn't compete with the food supply).
2) Waste Vegetable Oil, or WVO, can be used in diesel engines (even did a demonstration on Top Gear)
3) Natural gas - The US alone has enough natural gas to sustain our gasoline and energy needs for 180 years at today's levels.
4) Supply and demand. As the oil supply weakens, other energy sources will step in and take over.
It is an interesting picture though ... at one point, the USA had three equally sized car energy markets - electric, diesel, and gas. Eventually gasoline won out and became the norm. The others can easily be made the norm. Hell, even farmers were making diesel gas out of peanut oil. So peanut butter prices will go up. Whoop de doo!
Gee, logic and technology really escape the doomsayers. We can't expect much from them though, poor souls. I have often wondered what it must be like for someone to live like Chicken Little. THE SKY'S FALLING!
LMFAO! Go back under a rock and let the rest of us live our lives in this interesting and DYNAMIC world. Sorry if change happens. Change is scary, I know *pats little head of the doomsayer, after taking off the tin foil hat*
You are living in a fool's paradise. Your theory ignores the fact the new sources of fuel you tout are going to be MUCH MORE EXPENSIVE than the sources that they will replace. You offer no suggestion as to where the capital is going to come from to make all of this happen, either--in a time when this country is doing its best to destroy a couple centuries of accumulated capital.
Though I fully understand the role that new technologies can play, as well, I'm not nearly as sanguine about the risks they bring along with the rewards. The Japanese are learning a hard lesson right now about trusting implicitly in technology to solve energy problems.
By the way, I know a lot of people who work in the energy industry--particularly natural gas and coal. They are not nearly as rosy in their view of what lies ahead as you are. They plainly see that the cheap, easy-to-produce reserves in this country are being rapidly exhausted, and they know that what is going to replace it is going to cost much more--and have to be sold for a much higher price to be viable. Of course, the Pollyanna's can't be bothered with such facts. And, Pollyanna's always refer to realists as "doomsayers."
Peak oil was a theory developed in 1956 by M. King Hubbert of Shell Oil where by 1970 oil production was supposed to decline. The original prediction was for all oil production. Well, it has been 40 years and peak oil morons still crow every year it's going to happen and everything will go to hell. Survivalists force fit the assumption when a number of years later US oil production peaked...to keep themselves terrified of the world at night with their gold, guns, and canned goods.
Considering OP's prediction of that happening in January (twice actually), overnight on March 11th, then 2 weeks ago, I would give little credence to anything the OP "predicts". Even if the OP's prediction was the sun rising tomorrow morning, I would still see it for myself before believing it.
The threads of economic apocalypse and doom seem to have all come directly after a thread written by the OP about an issue that doesn't seem to have been resolved. (https://www.city-data.com/forum/chris...ind-peace.html) Please, find help and peace in life and you will find answers to stop the obsession.
Peak oil is not a theory, sorry to burst your bubble. Read some intelligent authors writing today.
You are living in a fool's paradise. Your theory ignores the fact the new sources of fuel you tout are going to be MUCH MORE EXPENSIVE than the sources that they will replace. You offer no suggestion as to where the capital is going to come from to make all of this happen, either--in a time when this country is doing its best to destroy a couple centuries of accumulated capital.
Though I fully understand the role that new technologies can play, as well, I'm not nearly as sanguine about the risks they bring along with the rewards. The Japanese are learning a hard lesson right now about trusting implicitly in technology to solve energy problems.
By the way, I know a lot of people who work in the energy industry--particularly natural gas and coal. They are not nearly as rosy in their view of what lies ahead as you are. They plainly see that the cheap, easy-to-produce reserves in this country are being rapidly exhausted, and they know that what is going to replace it is going to cost much more--and have to be sold for a much higher price to be viable. Of course, the Pollyanna's can't be bothered with such facts. And, Pollyanna's always refer to realists as "doomsayers."
Compressed natural gas is a very viable option, but the infrastructure needs to be put in place now in order to ensure a smooth transition in time. It will never be as cheap as gasoline once was but it would be cheap enough to allow our economy to survive. Our leaders lack the will and foresight to do it. We are getting down to the zero-hour here and the only thing that can save us is an Apollo like project, and unfortunately George W. Obama in the White House now is not the man we elected in 2008 that promised such a project.
Complete economic collapse, riots, unrest, martial law, and only the prepared will survive. The end of society is at our doorstep, and nobody, not even the US government, cares.
Tag for later... I love doomer-porn after all.
But face the facts... this is NOT the end of the world.
Gas will go up in price until eventually it's too expensive to be practical for fuel over several years, perhaps decades.
Meanwhile, people will switch fuels and cut back, synthetic fuel will be produced, and ultimately people will still pay 10.00+ a gallon to keep driving (like people are doing today in Europe). I see many more folks falling off the boat because of it, but I just don't see the collapse of the world because of it.
The only caveat is if gas goes up in price too fast. If gas went up to 10 bucks a gallon tomorrow and stayed there, we'd be screwed; no so much if it happened over a decade.
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