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"can make or break the economy and/or lead to severe shortages for everything from toilet paper to food."
Why shortages? Diesel price goes up, say it doubles. Trucking rates go up but not so much (diesel is only one component of truck costs - drivers and trucks arent free, you know). Prices of shipped commodities from toilet paper to food go up (but less than the trucking rates, cause transportation is far from the only cost). Why would there be shortages?
Hybrids look like a REALLY good deal. SUV's not so much.
Suddenly its worth car pooling, even if the only available car pool partner has bad breath.
Suddenly its worth taking the busto work, even if its slow and filled with "lesser breeds without the law".
Suddenly folks who dont usually maintain their cars for the best gas mileage will find it necessary to do so.
Suddenly its better to buy from the supermarket near home instead of driving 10 miles to Costco.
Sudddenly Megabus really is the best way to go on vacation.
Suddenly taking the bike out for errands looks more appetizing.
And, beyond gasoline
Suddenly a nice quilt that makes it easier to keep the heat down looks more worthwhile.
Suddenly you decide to do that energy audit.
etc. etc.
There are a bunch of short term responses. of course there are many more long term responses - but we would need 5$ gas to last to make a difference for those - not sure that will happen this year.
There is no way we are going off oil anytime soon. Altenative will be much higher which is why the world chases oil.
plus, all the moving parts in those electric trains, trucks, cars, factories, etc. that are 'green powered' and will save the world are going to be lubricated with....what? Turtle oil?
plus, all the moving parts in those electric trains, trucks, cars, factories, etc. that are 'green powered' and will save the world are going to be lubricated with....what? Turtle oil?
actually there ARE sources of lubricating oil other than petroleum.
but I cant see that really become an issue - even if oil triples from its current price, lubricating oil is a small piece of the total cost of running cars, trains, factories, etc. I mean saying ZERO petroleum is a silly thought experiment - even if the peak oil folk dont say we are going to zero anytime soon.
plus, all the moving parts in those electric trains, trucks, cars, factories, etc. that are 'green powered' and will save the world are going to be lubricated with....what? Turtle oil?
"Biolubricants made from vegetable oils and other renewable sources
These are primarily triglyceride esters derived from plants and animals. For lubricant base oil use the vegetable derived materials are preferred. Common ones include high oleic canola oil, castor oil, palm oil, sunflower seed oil and rapeseed oil from vegetable, and Tall oil from animal sources. Many vegetable oils are often hydrolyzed to yield the acids which are subsequently combined selectively to form specialist synthetic esters. Other naturally derived lubricants include lanolin (wool grease, a natural water repellent). Whale oil was an historically important lubricant, with some uses up to the latter part of the 20th century as a friction modifier additive for automatic transmission fluid.[3]
In 2008, the biolubricant market was around 1% of UK lubricant sales in a total lubricant market of 840,000 tonnes/year.[4] Lanolin is a natural water repellent, derived from sheep wool grease, and is an alternative to the more common petro-chemical based lubricants. This lubricant is also a corrosion inhibitor, protecting against rust, salts, and acids. Water can also be used on its own, or as a major component in combination with one of the other base oils. Commonly used in engineering processes, such as milling and lathe turning."
There is no way we are going off oil anytime soon. Altenative will be much higher which is why the world chases oil.
Generally, I take every prediction with a grain of salt and a we'll see attitude. This one however seems likely to play out just the way you say and for the very reason you mentioned. As the price goes higher and higher we'll probably use less oil, but for many years to come, I imagine that we'll still be dependent on oil...regardless of the cost.
plus, all the moving parts in those electric trains, trucks, cars, factories, etc. that are 'green powered' and will save the world are going to be lubricated with....what? Turtle oil?
That is the real problem;alterntives would mean higher cost and different problems overall. That is why the wolrd continues to chase crude with it high energy ;cheap cost and the multiple of prodcuts I saw counted as 19000 essential products that would have to be replaced. Even ethnol has been a flop as far as cost and even whe repalced other additives gives less gallons per barrel of crude.
"Biolubricants made from vegetable oils and other renewable sources
These are primarily triglyceride esters derived from plants and animals. For lubricant base oil use the vegetable derived materials are preferred. Common ones include high oleic canola oil, castor oil, palm oil, sunflower seed oil and rapeseed oil from vegetable, and Tall oil from animal sources. Many vegetable oils are often hydrolyzed to yield the acids which are subsequently combined selectively to form specialist synthetic esters. Other naturally derived lubricants include lanolin (wool grease, a natural water repellent). Whale oil was an historically important lubricant, with some uses up to the latter part of the 20th century as a friction modifier additive for automatic transmission fluid.[3]
In 2008, the biolubricant market was around 1% of UK lubricant sales in a total lubricant market of 840,000 tonnes/year.[4] Lanolin is a natural water repellent, derived from sheep wool grease, and is an alternative to the more common petro-chemical based lubricants. This lubricant is also a corrosion inhibitor, protecting against rust, salts, and acids. Water can also be used on its own, or as a major component in combination with one of the other base oils. Commonly used in engineering processes, such as milling and lathe turning."
good info but too vague...be better to see data behind performance in high heat/high friction applications such as motors/engines, and related issues with viscosity and shear performance over time vs. petroleum lubricants
probably a discussion for another thread...
$5 gas isn't going to have any dramatic effect on the average person...they'll just cut back in other spending areas because we all know how married to automobiles Americans are.
The last time around I still saw plenty of gas guzzlers driving around, and certainly no fewer cars on the roads, despite all the doom and gloom ranting.
If the speculators let oil hover around that $100+/bbl price for long enough, it might incite some riots and bad behavior as the longer term effects play out...but will the tricksters let that happen?
good info but too vague...be better to see data behind performance in high heat/high friction applications such as motors/engines, and related issues with viscosity and shear performance over time vs. petroleum lubricants
You really do not comprehend that using a quart of lube oil is entirely different than burning millions of barrels of Oil for fuel?
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