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Wait until oil prices soar (say $15 a gallon and higher), then wait another 30 years until we pass peak coal.
What is natural about this? Nature did not force us to be dependent on fossil fuels.
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Originally Posted by censusdata
but no one wants to use half as much air conditioning or use a half sized refrigerator - but they will have to when there is no more cheap coal left.
Why is that? There are numerous ways to generate electricity without fossil fuels. Unlike the transportation infrastructure, we can change the source of electricity energy without changing much infrastructure.
Anyhow, another depression is unlikely. The economy has started to stabilize, the issue now will be Japanese style deflation.
There is a natural progression to world wide depressions. The government is trying desperately to hide the effects and truth of the situation from the people. As we have already seen their solutions are temporary at best and will not cure the underlying problems. What is happening here is also happening in Europe and Asia. Eventually governments will no longer be able to support the people with deficit spending, and when the austerity begins in earnest, they will begin wars to direct attention to external enemies and away from their own incompetence and mismanagement. The big question is will any of us survive the coming wars.
U_I! You are hitting homeruns all the way on this.
Not too late to switch over from the Dark Side (Business/IT, correct?) to legit Engineering, yunno.
Quote:
Originally Posted by user_id
What is natural about this? Nature did not force us to be dependent on fossil fuels.
True enough. About like smoking. Mostly just bad habits.
RE: A/C . . .
Quote:
Why is that? There are numerous ways to generate electricity without fossil fuels. Unlike the transportation infrastructure, we can change the source of electricity energy without changing much infrastructure.
True enough, as well. And considering that Summer Time A/C is the only time of the year that overall grid even comes close to full use, it is also the money-making time of the year for the electric power industry.
An element of risk to the electric power industry is not only that there are many ways to make electricity -- which Do Not use the Central Power Plant and Transmission model -- but there are also ways to do serious cooling and A/C that do not use electricity as the primary power source -- here is a sample >>>
Anyhow, another depression is unlikely. The economy has started to stabilize, the issue now will be Japanese style deflation.
That is what I am seeing now (for the short-term) as well.
But do you figure that if the .gov folks cut-back the spending stimuli after the Fiscal Year turn-over (EOM Sept. 2010) and the Nov elections . . . things will not go back into free-fall?
There is a natural progression to world wide depressions. The government is trying desperately to hide the effects and truth of the situation from the people. As we have already seen their solutions are temporary at best and will not cure the underlying problems. What is happening here is also happening in Europe and Asia. Eventually governments will no longer be able to support the people with deficit spending, and when the austerity begins in earnest, they will begin wars to direct attention to external enemies and away from their own incompetence and mismanagement. The big question is will any of us survive the coming wars.
I suspect you are correct, Jim.
Sumthin' is gonna die before this is over.
Might be US.
Your observation about when the Stimuli stops . . . (then will not the brain-dead patient finish dying . . . ) is what I was pondering past user_id. If the pumps are all that is (barely) keeping the boat afloat -- when the pumps stop is not the boat going to continue sinking?
The G20 and the IMF are both pushing US for "austerity" as they say.
Most everybody on the top has figured out which way the tree is going to fall. The Bankers and Biggie Corps are now fully armed with Cash and direct feeds from the Treasury.
I am thinking we better kill them before they kill US.
Your observation about when the Stimuli stops . . . (then will not the brain-dead patient finish dying . . . ) is what I was pondering past user_id. If the pumps are all that is (barely) keeping the boat afloat -- when the pumps stop is not the boat going to continue sinking?
The G20 and the IMF are both pushing US for "austerity" as they say.
Most everybody on the top has figured out which way the tree is going to fall. The Bankers and Biggie Corps are now fully armed with Cash and direct feeds from the Treasury.
I am thinking we better kill them before they kill US.
Deflation has to happen at some point, they can only postpone it so long. That is why you see so much money being kept in cash and equivalents regardless of return, or lack of. Europe has already taken the first baby steps towards austerity. Policy here in the US is unclear due to pandering for elections, but after Nov. we should begin to see if they are going to curb borrowing and entitlements or continue expediential debt growth.
Global birthrates have been dropping the past several decades.
Sometime in this century global population will begin to decline.
The economy as we have known it has never experienced a
sustained drop in population. No more ever increasing demand.
No more ever expanding markets. A future of deflation...
a death knell for the current global economy.
First world nations were first hit by falling birthrates and an
ever aging population. To offset this, third world immigration
has been encouraged into the USA and Europe. But this is only
a temporary fix, because birthrates in third world nations are
also decreasing.
Interestingly... one first world nation with low birthrates and
an aging population did not go the massive immigration route
[because massive immigration destroys ethnos and culture.]
That nation is Japan who has been experiencing deflation for
decades.
Japan's deflation [so far] occurred in a functioning global economy.
What happens to Japan and the rest of us when the world economy
no longer functions.
i t seems the economic damage is extensive with debt levels we can never hope to pay and California is basically insolvent, are we in for some very tough times like we have never seen?
I live in Texas (DFW), so I can't speak for the rest of the country. But in this area unemployment is only 5.5%... Home prices also haven't fallen very much at all. During the hardest times in the great depression unemployment across the country was at 30%. Companies in DFW are still hiring.
Now if you look at present day Detroit (unemployment 30%+) then yes, they may be in a "great depression." Certain parts of the country are feeling this recession much more than others. Certain states are spending themselves into a very deep hole... http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/1..._n_394559.html
But no, I don't think we are even close to a great depression. I'm keeping my money in mostly dividend stocks though as I think the recovery will be very very slow. But there will be a recovery-- we won't dip down like in 08 again.
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