Maybe look at their application a bit broader?
I view this "Doomer" genre as discussions of Worst Case Scenarios.
A scenario does not mean or predict that something will or will not happen, and further -- does not cause it to happen.
Seat Belts do not predict nor cause a car crash,
Lifeboats and Flotation Vests do not predict nor cause a ship to sink,
Smoke and Fire Detectors and Sprinklers do not predict nor cause a building to burn.
But all of them came about as studies of the various Worst Case Scenario(s).
All of them make the Worst Case Scenario they are about -- survivable, or at least increase the likelihood of survival in a very hostile situation. Those are very good things if you find yourself in a Worse Case IRL (in real life).
If you are covered and prepared for a possible Worst Case Scenario, you are covered for that Worst Case -- a bit of a tautology, but very true.
But to declare that they are somehow True or False, is sort of goofy.
This happens on the other end of things, as well. Folks get carried away with the Best Case Scenarios. Look at some of the knuckleheads on here who claim how great the stock market is because they "drew a line" from 1987 (or some other major low point) to 2007/8 (a major peak) and declare it has went up some bizillion percent. That becomes the basis of their "Truth." Happened to a lot of folks with Real Estate, as well. Same moron mentality as the Full Scale Doomers, just as a mirror image.
But your question, Sub-Blue was for good reading. I have seen you poke around various threads looking for some predictive range. I would suggest you study some works like this >>>
Amazon.com: The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World (9781863160995): Peter Schwartz: Books
That covers not only how to study and manage the Worst Case and Best Case, as we discussed above, but another Case -- The Changed Case -- which btw, is far more likely than the Worst or Best Cases, (if you are still on the prediction mode).
If this is of interest, the Changed Case Scenarios usually point to staying flexible and having the ability to adapt to those changes.
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