Which premier town is on the downfall? (Detroit, Livonia: apartment, lofts)

[Coldjensens]

Originally Posted by jonnynonos

Hold on: Before I waste time chasing down a number, I want to make sure this is your argument: That manufacturing employment in the metro region has not declined over the last 50, 40, 30 years or so because there has been an uptick since the bottom of the recession?

You know, without getting personal -- because it isn't personal -- but whenever I see people citing statistics from the bottom of the recession in anything (job gains, deficit, GDP etc.) I wonder what is wrong with our country.

I mean, it is such a low level, primitive, meaningless slight of height, what is the point of doing it?

Do people really think they are fooling anyone?

Is there a person alive today who doesn't see that as the exact same thing as saying "Well, I've cut my time in the 400 meters by 75% since that day three years ago I was incapacitated with food poisoning."

WTF?!!!!!

I believe we are discussing what cities are likely to do in the future. Thus it is the present and current trends that are applicable, not 50 years ago.

To use Dearborn as an example so it can be easily understood: 50 years ago, Dearborn was one of the nicest suburbs in Detroit Metro. Compared to 50 years ago, Dearborn was on the downfall 20 years ago and woudl definitley be on the list iun an answer to this thread. But that is not the subject of this thread. The subject of this thread is which cities are likely to downfall in the future, not whcih cities were on a downward trend 20 years ago. Dearborn for example is not likely to see a downturn in the near future. The past 10 years it has been steadily improving again. That is what matters for looking at "which premier town is on the downfall"

Thus, when you go into this particular thread and discuss the bottom falling out of manufacturing, I expect you are talking about now and in the future, not 50 year ago. I thought you were saying that currently, the bottom is falling out of manufacturing, when to the best of my knowledge, it is improving. If my understanding is correct, cities that are heavily based in manufacturing, will be doing better going forward from today, not on the downfall.

I am not sure whether you really do not get that, or you are just try to find a basis to be condescending. If the latter, it backfired.

[usroute10]

Originally Posted by Coldjensens

From where do you get number 1? It seems to be going the other way to me. We are building/rebuilding factories and design centers for the big 3 like mad. trenton engine expanded and has more cars in the parking lot than in past years. Ford Stamping seems about the same. Has anything new closed in the last 5 years? I thought Manufacturing was doing better than 2008 levels, maybe even earlier. Most companies are having a lot of difficulty getting quality trade/technical workers. Even factory workers are in short supply, especially those with experience. (Wages are generally down as far as I can tell though). I did not realize MFG was still falling off.

Which suburbs are you referring to? I am aware some less desirable suburbs may have lost population, but others have gained both population and average income levels (Wyandotte for example). Redford fits this description to a T, Lincoln Park and Allen Park might match 1 and 3, but not really #2. Allen park at least has a downtown and many of their homes look nicer now than 5 years ago. I cannot think of anywhere else. Inkster is pretty awful, but that is not new, it was always awful. Ecorse maybe and Melvindale. Did either of those used to be nice or nicer?

Oak Park, Hazel Park, Warren, Eastpointe, Harper Woods, and Garden City all have the smaller housing and are inner ring suburbs in slow decline. Those downriver ones as well (River Rouge, too).

Center Line, St. Clair Shores, Madison Heights, Dearborn, Dearborn Heights, Livonia, Southfield and Lathrup Village have better housing but are probably all in slow decline.

Berkeley, Ferndale, Birmingham, Clawson, Royal Oak, the Grosse Pointes are older but are not in decline because they offer "downtowns" or other features that most suburbs don't.

[jonnynonos]

Originally Posted by usroute10

oak park, hazel park, warren, eastpointe, harper woods, and garden city all have the smaller housing and are inner ring suburbs in slow decline. Those downriver ones as well (river rouge, too).

Center line, st. Clair shores, madison heights, dearborn, dearborn heights, livonia, southfield and lathrup village have better housing but are probably all in slow decline.

Berkeley, ferndale, birmingham, clawson, royal oak, the grosse pointes are older but are not in decline because they offer "downtowns" or other features that most suburbs don't.

lol

[jonnynonos]

Originally Posted by Coldjensens

I believe we are discussing what cities are likely to do in the future. Thus it is the present and current trends that are applicable, not 50 years ago.

To use Dearborn as an example so it can be easily understood: 50 years ago, Dearborn was one of the nicest suburbs in Detroit Metro. Compared to 50 years ago, Dearborn was on the downfall 20 years ago and woudl definitley be on the list iun an answer to this thread. But that is not the subject of this thread. The subject of this thread is which cities are likely to downfall in the future, not whcih cities were on a downward trend 20 years ago. Dearborn for example is not likely to see a downturn in the near future. The past 10 years it has been steadily improving again. That is what matters for looking at "which premier town is on the downfall"

Thus, when you go into this particular thread and discuss the bottom falling out of manufacturing, I expect you are talking about now and in the future, not 50 year ago. I thought you were saying that currently, the bottom is falling out of manufacturing, when to the best of my knowledge, it is improving. If my understanding is correct, cities that are heavily based in manufacturing, will be doing better going forward from today, not on the downfall.

I am not sure whether you really do not get that, or you are just try to find a basis to be condescending. If the latter, it backfired.

Yes, so what you are saying is that if you look at them in the context of 2008-present, they are on the upswing.

If you look at them from likely any other standardized period in 5 year increments (10, 15, 20, 25, 30 etc.) they are likely on the downswing.

To demonstrate the validity of your observation, I will point out that talking about, for example, stock funds in such a manner by an asset manager would be in many cases illegal.

Meaning a firm can't say "We have generated 599% returns since 2007! Give us your money!" Without extensive context and disclaimers etc.

That is because that kind of data cherry picking is pretty considered useless.

The main reason that Detroit's inner ring suburbs will continue to decline is that 1) they have been declining 2) there is no impetus whatsoever to stop the decline

[usroute10]

Originally Posted by highlanderfil

A total lack of evidence that said decline is impending and enough big-box stores to ensure it continues to thrive for years to come.

Livonia and Farmington Hills had/has plenty of big box retail as well. Livonia had 3 shopping malls as well. Two of them have closed and became big box store retail centers...but Livonia is still viewed as being in slow decline.

Farmington Hills' big box store retail center called "West River" is an example of its decline. When it was thriving in the '90's it had a Target, Kohl's, F&M (defunct retail/pharmacy chain), TCBY yogurt chain, Dunham's Sports, and a United Artists Movie theater. Now it's half empty and has lower echelon stores.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Mi...!4d-83.3370181

[usroute10]

Originally Posted by highlanderfil

Depends on your definition of "cool", I suppose. To some, being the bro-capital is it.

I really like Royal Oak, pity I can't live there as it's too much of a commute for my wife; even despite the shutdowns of some businesses it's still one of my favorite places to hang out in SE MI.One of the best farmers' markets in the area, plenty of cool little restaurants and just generally a city vibe that I can't get pretty much anywhere else apart from A2, Plymouth or maybe Northville.

....and Ferndale and Birmingham and Hamtramck and Downtown and Midtown and Corktown and Eastern Market and the Villages, and even Windsor

Here is a great new mixed-use development that will be starting construction in the Villages next month

Detroit gets $5M grant for neighborhood redevelopment

[highlanderfil]

Originally Posted by usroute10

....and Ferndale and Birmingham and Hamtramck and Downtown and Midtown and Corktown and Eastern Market and the Villages, and even Windsor

Birmingham is a bit more upscale (but comparable), Ferndale is a little more downscale (but still comparable, as well). As for Hamtramck and the Detroit neighborhoods, I generally don't venture there that often...but, still, fair enough.

[734accountant]

Look at a map, it's pretty obvious the trend will be everything east of 275 & north part of M-5 (Haggerty Connector) — Livonia, Farmington Hills, West Bloomfield (except for lakefront) — will turn sketchier.

Canton, Plymouth, Northville, Novi, Walled Lake, Commerce Township are all west of the highways and will be stable.

[keraT]

I am surprise these young adults who grew up in 2000 sq ft house with large yards in suburb are comfortable in tiny 900 sqft house.

[highlanderfil]

Originally Posted by usroute10

Livonia and Farmington Hills had/has plenty of big box retail as well. Livonia had 3 shopping malls as well. Two of them have closed and became big box store retail centers...but Livonia is still viewed as being in slow decline.

Farmington Hills' big box store retail center called "West River" is an example of its decline. When it was thriving in the '90's it had a Target, Kohl's, F&M (defunct retail/pharmacy chain), TCBY yogurt chain, Dunham's Sports, and a United Artists Movie theater. Now it's half empty and has lower echelon stores.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Mi...!4d-83.3370181

Right. Give me an example of any of this happening in Canton. I haven't seen any.