Housing Decline (Denver, Aurora, Westminster: sales, new home, employment)

[formercalifornian]

Originally Posted by Noahma

one of the reason they might be listing low is not because the owners are trying to get out. It could be that the owners were qualified for a short sale, or the lender now owns the house, and is trying to offload it as quick as possable.

Nope; it's still owner-occupied, and she is not in default. Douglas County has an excellent public records website.

[Charles]

Originally Posted by formercalifornian

Nope; it's still owner-occupied, and she is not in default. Douglas County has an excellent public records website.

My impression is that Douglas County (including Castle Rock and Parker) has a pretty solid home ownership strata, proactive parents in their school districts, and an employment base working with both the local community and south Denver (DTC).

It is as bulletproof as anywhere else.

[formercalifornian]

Originally Posted by Charles

My impression is that Douglas County (including Castle Rock and Parker) has a pretty solid home ownership strata, proactive parents in their school districts, and an employment base working with both the local community and south Denver (DTC).

It is as bulletproof as anywhere else.

Time will tell. I think the next year or two will reveal a lot.

[CosmicWizard]

So Far, the real estate market in Grand Junction (http://realtytimes.com/rtmcrcond/Colorado~Grand_Junction~joesalamon - broken link) is still going pretty strong with double digit appreciation in the past year. Earlier in the year I noticed about 8 houses for sale in my neighborhood, but there are currently just 2, and both of those have been on the market for over a year. I'm guessing there must be some troubleseome issues with those houses that turn the buyers away. Having just bough my home a a year ago, I'm obviously pleased with the appreciation and I'm hoping it will continue into the forseeable future, but I'm not holding my breath. Anything having to do with $$$ can change on a dime for no apparent reason. The really B-I-G money at the top of the money pyramid controls the whole game.

blessings....Franco

[Vision67]

I live in an older development (built in 1992) in Colorado Springs that has only one listing. Most of our neighbors are the original owners or are people in their 50s with few young children, but several boomerang children. It is very difficult for young people without a professional education to make it in this economy. Unfortunately, they aren't all smart enough to become doctors, lawyers, or engineers.

I've never considered a house to be an investment. It is a place of your own to live and it saves you from paying rent. Its value is merely the present value of future rent payments. Therefore, I think housing values will drop and rents will go up until equilibrium is reached. When the rent equals the housing payment, house prices will stabilize. I could easily rent my house for my payment now, so I'm not too worried. But then I never did fall for the 100% re-fi with cash out and an interest-only loan. That seemed too good to be true. And it was!

[Vision67]

From Denver Post 9-4-07

The Denver Post - Impact of foreclosures mixed

Impact of foreclosures mixed
By Margaret Jackson
Denver Post Staff Writer
Article Last Updated: 09/04/2007 10:13:30 AM MDT


The Denver metro area has been hard-hit by foreclosures, but the reality of the situation is vastly different depending on which neighborhood you live in.

[CosmicWizard]

Vision67

Thanks for the article. It gives a clearer perspective regarding the foreclosure issue. I read in the news recently that Foreclosures drop almost 13 percent in Mesa County (broken link). As is usually the case with real estate, only three things matter....Location, Location, Location.

blessings....Franco

[dj32]

great article in the post today.. many of the denver neighborhoods are very stable... our neighborhood increased 13.5% over last year and builders are still scraping and building on every block. There were several aroudn here that rose 20-25% in the past year. IT is not all gloom and doom.

[hello-world]

Originally Posted by dj32

great article in the post today.. many of the denver neighborhoods are very stable... our neighborhood increased 13.5% over last year and builders are still scraping and building on every block. There were several aroudn here that rose 20-25% in the past year. IT is not all gloom and doom.

to be honest, i have to say that it's a little hard to believe there's a neighborhood in denver with 13-20%+ appreciation. i just haven't seen anything like that around the metro area, myself, even in the "happening" neighborhoods (where appreciation doesn't seem to really be there - condos, for example, are simply not selling AT ALL quickly or for gains, and losses/seriously slashed asking are what i'm seeing, actually). to me, it seems that:

- one of the highest foreclosure rates in the country
- lots of inventory
- low rents
- typical salaries that do not jibe with $2250/mo mortgages
- previous speculative buying

might help explain why a metro area might see a ~2% depreciation in a year (on average) while asking prices RISE by ~10%. while these are area averages, how truly location-based can it be? i.e., if there's tons of inventory, low rent, etc., with these kinds of numbers (e.g., numbers that simply steer many, many people out of the market), while the national scene looks aweful at the moment (and for the foreseeable future), how can that not eventually pervade MOST locations, if not ALL? no, not doom and gloom...maybe just an adjustment back to reality? clearly the job market is not doom and gloom (overall, so far), and stock market is not doom and gloom (overall, at the moment), among some other indicators that as far as a lay person like me can tell are not too crazily out of whack, so maybe the housing market is simply coming back to the pace of all else?

[dj32]

hello world-

I was surprised at some of the neighborhoods too- but location, location, location. I think in the suburbs, where there was more land and hte builders were scooping it up, people could be pickier about which builder they went with. In Denver, land is scarce and people will always want to live in Wash Park, Bonnie BRae, etc... also the more stable high dollar neighborhoods like Denver Country Club only grew like 2% (the average I think in Denver?) versus Southern Hills/Southmoor was 20-22% (that was my example). I think those neighborhoods had more diversity in price- the median price there was still relatively low compared to Hilltop, Country Club, Belcaro, etc...

The bottom line is I think we are really lucky that Denver has stayed relatively stable- there is more product on the market but if anything, people are more realistic about setting the price.

What I think is kind of crazy, and success remains to be seen is the vast number of new builds in Wash Park at the 1.2-1.5 price point! There is something like that on nearly every block right now--- under construction. I keep thinking I wonder if they will get it? I can't even figure out good comps for those places, because there has not been huge volume sold to date. So I wonder what will happen?? Will it be another Hilltop?