Possible Housing Affordability Crisis in Dallas (Plano, Garland: buying a home, to buy, good schools)

[djslakor]

Originally Posted by grilledcheeseftw

Probably not on a wide scale, yet, but that is a concern, isn't it? I have my own, personal examples, but it's pretty simple math if you look at the rapid increase in house valuations in some areas. I saw it happen quite a bit in Houston before we moved, too. A $200k house increased at the max cap for 5 years would see a total tax bill increase of about $300 per month, which can be a squeeze in many people's budgets. Plus, now, that same house that was affordable for many middle and lower-middle incomes 5 years ago is now completely out of the question for people in that same scenario. Again, something I've seen be quite impactful to my age group in the last 5-10 years. *shrug*

This will also get interesting as the baby boomers start to retire en masse https://www.star-telegram.com/news/b...209980869.html

Like a broken record, I'll say it again ... not sure why people think things aren't allowed to change. 5 years ago was precisely that, 5 years ago.

[NP78]

Originally Posted by grilledcheeseftw

Probably not on a wide scale, yet, but that is a concern, isn't it? I have my own, personal examples, but it's pretty simple math if you look at the rapid increase in house valuations in some areas. I saw it happen quite a bit in Houston before we moved, too. A $200k house increased at the max cap for 5 years would see a total tax bill increase of about $300 per month, which can be a squeeze in many people's budgets. Plus, now, that same house that was affordable for many middle and lower-middle incomes 5 years ago is now completely out of the question for people in that same scenario. Again, something I've seen be quite impactful to my age group in the last 5-10 years. *shrug*

This will also get interesting as the baby boomers start to retire en masse https://www.star-telegram.com/news/b...209980869.html

I don't mean to minimize the impact of property tax increases, but the reality is that the cohort you are talking about (homeowners) have a significant portion of their monthly housing costs fixed (P+I). With that in mind, their overall housing cost is not increasing that rapidly.

In addition, while I don't put too much weight into it for a variety of reasons, those same homeowners have gained significant equity in their homes in that same time frame. It doesn't help in the short term of course since everyone else's has as well, but in the long term if they need to relocate or choose to retire elsewhere, that is a real benefit.


I am not making light of challenges posed by rising housing costs, but existing homeowners are not the group that we need to be concerned about.

[jiping]

Originally Posted by grilledcheeseftw

What does concern me is the idea that my kids' teachers, and the police officers and firefighters (as an example) that serve the community, should lose their family homes for no other reason than rapidly skyrocketing property taxes when their pay does not increase proportionately. At least in CA, per my understanding, assessed value is capped at 2% raise per year.

You are so concerned about your kid's teacher's property tax, that you want CA prop 11 to pass in Texas. Do you understand as a result you will see massive rise in house price?

We also have millennial so concerned about teacher who happens to not have a house, and he wants to see house price going back to what it was 5 years ago, by banning companies and professionals from moving to DFW. Go back to California!

The road to hell is paved with alleged good intentions. People should mind their own business before they pretend to care about teachers.

If anything, the hardship most teachers experience is the stagnation of salary, which is directly caused by the Texas Robin hood Bill (we should be concerned about teachers who happen to be in poor rural areas). House appreciations bring more revenue to richer ISD, but they are all sucked up by the state. Plano ISD, for example, collected $3,544/$4,657 per homeowner in 2013/2017, but could only retain $3,322/$3,634, and you bet how much left could be passed to teachers.

[numbersguy100]

Originally Posted by jiping

You are so concerned about your kid's teacher's property tax, that you want CA prop 11 to pass in Texas. Do you understand as a result you will see massive rise in house price?

We also have millennial so concerned about teacher who happens to not have a house, and he wants to see house price going back to what it was 5 years ago, by banning companies and professionals from moving to DFW. Go back to California!

The road to hell is paved with alleged good intentions. People should mind their own business before they pretend to care about teachers.

If anything, the hardship most teachers experience is the stagnation of salary, which is directly caused by the Texas Robin hood Bill (we should be concerned about teachers who happen to be in poor rural areas). House appreciations bring more revenue to richer ISD, but they are all sucked up by the state. Plano ISD, for example, collected $3,544/$4,657 per homeowner in 2013/2017, but could only retain $3,322/$3,634, and you bet how much left could be passed to teachers.

Believe it or not, DFW pays its teachers better than many metros, both on an absolute and a cost of living adjusted basis. Do I wish they made more? Yes, as my wife is one. But I also know how many places have it worse. My wife made more money when we lived in NYC, which was great for us because we could cover our fixed costs on my income alone so at some level it was free money. But for a single earner or a household of two teachers, it would be worse than DFW due to the cost of living difference.

[crazyforger]

Originally Posted by jiping

You are so concerned about your kid's teacher's property tax, that you want CA prop 11 to pass in Texas. Do you understand as a result you will see massive rise in house price?

We also have millennial so concerned about teacher who happens to not have a house, and he wants to see house price going back to what it was 5 years ago, by banning companies and professionals from moving to DFW. Go back to California!

The road to hell is paved with alleged good intentions. People should mind their own business before they pretend to care about teachers.

If anything, the hardship most teachers experience is the stagnation of salary, which is directly caused by the Texas Robin hood Bill (we should be concerned about teachers who happen to be in poor rural areas). House appreciations bring more revenue to richer ISD, but they are all sucked up by the state. Plano ISD, for example, collected $3,544/$4,657 per homeowner in 2013/2017, but could only retain $3,322/$3,634, and you bet how much left could be passed to teachers.

Good post
Wish I could rep you again

[grilledcheeseftw]

Originally Posted by NP78

I don't mean to minimize the impact of property tax increases, but the reality is that the cohort you are talking about (homeowners) have a significant portion of their monthly housing costs fixed (P+I). With that in mind, their overall housing cost is not increasing that rapidly.

In addition, while I don't put too much weight into it for a variety of reasons, those same homeowners have gained significant equity in their homes in that same time frame. It doesn't help in the short term of course since everyone else's has as well, but in the long term if they need to relocate or choose to retire elsewhere, that is a real benefit.


I am not making light of challenges posed by rising housing costs, but existing homeowners are not the group that we need to be concerned about.

Our prop taxes are about 1/3 (very roughly) of our housing cost and, in theory, a legally allowable 10% increase to taxable value would increase our monthly payment by... 15-20% over 5 years? We can absorb it, but that's hefty. Quickly rising home values honestly scare me as a young family, because equity doesn't matter to me as much when we are looking to put down roots for years; my monthly budget does. Like you said, equity is great if you retire or relo somewhere cheaper.

[grilledcheeseftw]

Originally Posted by jiping

You are so concerned about your kid's teacher's property tax, that you want CA prop 11 to pass in Texas. Do you understand as a result you will see massive rise in house price?

We also have millennial so concerned about teacher who happens to not have a house, and he wants to see house price going back to what it was 5 years ago, by banning companies and professionals from moving to DFW. Go back to California!

The road to hell is paved with alleged good intentions. People should mind their own business before they pretend to care about teachers.

If anything, the hardship most teachers experience is the stagnation of salary, which is directly caused by the Texas Robin hood Bill (we should be concerned about teachers who happen to be in poor rural areas). House appreciations bring more revenue to richer ISD, but they are all sucked up by the state. Plano ISD, for example, collected $3,544/$4,657 per homeowner in 2013/2017, but could only retain $3,322/$3,634, and you bet how much left could be passed to teachers.

I'm not sure if you're talking about prop 13 and prop 5, or asking if I'd I support emergency workers being on call while on break (yes). You're putting words in my mouth. I apologize for posting out of boredom on an hours long teleconference. Never did I say prices should be forced to revert and businesses prevented from coming here, but ok. I was reacting to blanket statements made by another poster regarding what is a far more nuanced situation, when I should have ignored. This millennial will go back to my avocado toast and my lurking.

[happycrow]

Originally Posted by EDS_

Economically speaking there is nothing about the area that should imply cheap*. As I like to note among the professional set net, net, net take home pay vs. cost of living metrics here are exceptionally favorable and have been for many years.

As the area grows and it will and as the economy continues to outperform nearly all peer cities and it will - until one side of the political aisle takes over and chokes out our low tax environment - that will happen also - expect present trends, with hiccups along the way for sure, to continue.

*Cheap is Wheeling West Virginia, Oklahoma City and host of secondary cities and smaller places.

With respect, that's a hell of a goal-post-move, EDS. Places like South-Central Irving were cheap to rent in, until quite recently. Now kids who are coming up there are paying the kinds of rents that until recently were taken for granted in nicer parts of town. When working-class kids look at a place they grow up in and wonder whether they have to move because home is no longer hospitable rent-wise, that's practically the definition of an affordability crisis.

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by happycrow

With respect, that's a hell of a goal-post-move, EDS. Places like South-Central Irving were cheap to rent in, until quite recently. Now kids who are coming up there are paying the kinds of rents that until recently were taken for granted in nicer parts of town. When working-class kids look at a place they grow up in and wonder whether they have to move because home is no longer hospitable rent-wise, that's practically the definition of an affordability crisis.

"Were" was then.

I'm on record here noting that as the market corrected upwards due to the high buying power of take home pay around here and growth people in bottom 50% of income would be squeezed especially hard. Many here complain about it people in most peer cities have been living with worse for many years.

[happycrow]

Small consolation to those on the wide part of the pyramid.