[Cambium]

Latest NAM continues the NW trend. Unreal.

Brings 5"+ snow into CT now.

[BPt111]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Latest NAM continues the NW trend. Unreal.

Brings 5"+ snow into CT now.

Western CT on coastline will see more snow ?

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by BPt111

Western CT on coastline will see more snow ?

Look at the snow totals from the latest NAM. lol. What else is new.


https://www.city-data.com/forum/weath...l#post51346060

[Cambium]

3 days ago..and continued till today.

Originally Posted by Cambium

So it's not Tuesday-Wednesday's storm that's a threat? Got it. It's Thursday-Friday now. Sure. Lets just do 1-2 storms a week then.
I think Tues-Wed will either miss us or be weak. No big deal.

I guess the threat is for Tuesday-Wednesday again? So glad I'm not a forecaster. LOL. Same headaches though looking at the models.

[BPt111]

Longer winter than usual means it going be very hot summer

[Wilton2ParkAve]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Latest NAM continues the NW trend. Unreal.

Brings 5"+ snow into CT now.

Where is the Euro? I still see OTS

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Wilton2ParkAve

Where is the Euro? I still see OTS

Closer than last nights run. I posted the text for Danbury. Shows about 1/4" precip. Previous update had 0 so the trend closer was there. Still too far off the coast to bring a noteworthy snow event. We'll see what it says tonight.


Too lazy to pull up the snow map from the latest. Just 2-3" for southern half of CT



Edit:: Couldn't resist..

Here's Euro snow map from latest run. (remember its 10:1 ratios. Reality for Philly area will probably be 8:1 so reduce totals there)

[Cambium]

NWS NY. 3 storms next 7 days.
1st one comes in 2 waves. Tuesday and again Tuesday night through Wednesday. 3rd storm next weekend

https://www.weather.gov/bgm/productText

National Weather Service New York NY
414 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Two storm systems could impact the area from Tuesday-Sunday.

The first storm system will come in two waves, the first in
response to shearing energy emerging a cutoff low over the
Rockies that tracks to the south of Long Island Tuesday. At this
time it appears any precipitation from this first bit of energy
should be relatively light and based on a blended thermal
profile and surface wetbulb temperatures, should fall as mainly
snow. However, given sun-angle, would expect any accumulation to
be limited to mainly grassy surfaces. Generally less than 1 inch
of snow is expected during the day on Tuesday, mainly across
NYC/Long Island/southern portions of NE NJ. There is generally
good agreement among the models with this idea with solid
support from the CMC/ECMWF/SREF and the NAM/GFS just offshore
(but also with a more sheared out solution to the shortwave than
the others, so adjusting for this, you have a reasonable
consensus).

The second wave with the first storm is in response to a
combination of the remainder of the energy associated with the
initial closed low over the Rockies and a second piece of energy
that comes down from SW Canada (which at one point was also part
of the Rockies cutoff). This helps to carve out a larger low-mid
level shortwave trough/potential 700 hPa closed low - and hence
a stronger coastal low that tracks to the S/E of the 40N/70W
bench mark. There is also a general consensus for this idea from
the models in a general sense. However, with the NAM/GFS likely
too far S/E with initial low, their path for the follow-on low
likely also is too far to the S/E, so followed a SREF/CMC/ECMWF
blend with the second low.

So expect another round of snow to develop later Tuesday night
and linger into Wednesday night. Once again thermal profiles and
surface wetbulb temperatures support mainly/if not all snow.

Still some question of how much and how far to the NW qpf falls
with this storm. There is the potential for advisory level snows
across mainly the southern 1/2 of the CWA. It should be noted
that our snow grids, consistent with duration of WPC produced
snow probabilities only go through 00Z Thursday, so do not
capture all of the snow expected to fall from this system. There
is still uncertainty on the exact strength, timing and track of
the storm, so would expect refinements to the forecast with
time. Currently the range of solutions range from no snow to a
very low chance of a low end warning snowfall across far S
portions of the CWA. A mitigating fact to any snow accumulation
will be the sun angle this time of year, and even with wet
bulbing, could see temperatures near or right above freezing..

[Cambium]

Snow cover seen from above.

https://twitter.com/TylerJankoski/st...85003558735874

[Cambium]

Will be fun to see if they have to change this forecast in 12-24hrs. Lolol

https://twitter.com/NWSNewYorkNY/sta...31584374870016