[Csiko]

"Oh hey, I'll just check the weather on C-D."

Suddenly, this thread.

And here I was hoping all you had was like 50 degree temperatures coming up and the title was a joke.

[Cambium]

Temps are colder than October snowstorm. Temps in the 30s support snow at surface especially if aloft is cold enough which it will be.

Here's a sounding animation from the latest GFS model for Bridgeport.. To keep this simple.. See the "0" at the bottom? Thats the 32 degrees mark. Follow the blue diagnol line .. If The black lines are the left of it, its below freezing and enough for snow. Where they meet means moisture..

Notice it stays below freezing all the way to 900 meters and 2 lines are touching. = heavy snow

[Cambium]

Current temps and where the 5000 foot freezing line is.

[AnonChick]

So you're saying that in a parallel world, if you had 88 gigawatts of power and put enough banana peels in the flux capacitor, you'd see 500 feet of snow per square foot of land in Connecticut.

But because we don't have 88 gw power, or a flux capacitor, and we're not living in that other parallel world, we'll just see the run-off of a few flakes. RIGHT? RIGHT???

A few flakes. Not FEET, not INCHES. FLAKES!

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by AnonChick

So you're saying that in a parallel world, if you had 88 gigawatts of power and put enough banana peels in the flux capacitor, you'd see 500 feet of snow per square foot of land in Connecticut.

But because we don't have 88 gw power, or a flux capacitor, and we're not living in that other parallel world, we'll just see the run-off of a few flakes. RIGHT? RIGHT???

A few flakes. Not FEET, not INCHES. FLAKES!

roflmao!

And dont forget. timing of the lightning hitting the tower is the same as timing and track with our storms in CT. Maybe a Hoverboard will be needed instead of a shovel.



I finally read Upton's discussion... So they are basically saying, Snow inland for sure. but the coastal areas will see rain and because most of the precip will fall when they think rain, they dont think a lot of accumulation...BUT they say if the bulk of the precip comes 3-4 hrs later, when it supports snow, then amounts will be higher. Also notes snow will fall into Friday because a Norlun trough setsup. That means 48hrs of snow falling. Not always heavy

LATEST MODEL RUNS HOLD OFF ON BRINGING THE PCPN IN TILL WED
AFTN...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC FOR WED MORNING...WITH ANY
PCPN OCCURRING THIS TIME BEING LIGHT IN NATURE...AND GENERALLY RAIN
AT THE COAST AND SNOW INLAND. UNFORTUNATELY...THE CONSISTENCY OF THE
MODELS DOESN/T PERSIST INTO WED NIGHT...WITH A GREAT SPREAD ON QPF
TOTALS FROM 00Z THURS BASICALLY UNTIL 00Z FRI. BECAUSE OF THE
INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS...CHOSE TO NOT DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WENT WITH A HPC/ECMWF/PREVIOUS FORECAST
BLEND. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHEST AMTS OVER EASTERN LI/SE CT AND THE
LOWEST AMTS OVER INTERIOR HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. ONE THING THE MODELS
CAN AGREE UPON IS THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z THURS.

PCPN TYPE...WITH HIGH TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 40S
WED...BASICALLY EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN OVER
INTERIOR REGIONS DURING THE DAY WED. STILL EXPECTING A CHANGEOVER TO
ALL SNOW WED EVENING OVER INTERIOR REGIONS...WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE
THEN SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT...AND ALL AREAS HAVING A
PERIOD OF ALL SNOW BY EARLY THURS MORNING. WITH THE PCPN
ONGOING...CHOSE TO SIDE CLOSER TO WET BULB TEMPS...WHICH HELPED
BRING TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES. DESPITE THE LOWERING...THE
HEAVIEST PCPN LOOKS TO CORRESPOND MORE IN WITH THE TIMING OF THE
RAIN...MINIMIZING SNOWFALL TOTALS AT THIS TIME. IF THE TEMPS CAN
COOL AT A QUICKER RATE...OR IF THE HEAVIEST PCPN DELAYS 3-4
HOURS...WE COULD SEE MUCH HIGHER SF AMTS. AT THIS TIME...AM
GENERALLY THINKING 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THERMAL PROFILES DO
INDICATE WE SHOULD EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW EVENT...WITH A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY OF SLEET MIXING IN. DID ADJUST TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES ON THURSDAY AS WELL...WITH THE PCPN LINGERING LONGER. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURS MORNING...BUT
A TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z ACROSS MOST AREAS

[Mixum]

twc is saying just snow showers?

[findly185]

Waiting to see what happens here NW of DC.

[Cambium]

New NAM out.. Stalls the storm completely. Beach erosion would be likely for sure with this senario and prolonged snow in spots.

I'll have timing better later on.. Thinking starts tomorrow Atlantic city northward in afternoon but very light non disruptive, Then gets heavy overnight and snows through Thursday morning and again Thurs afternoon to Friday afternoon.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Mixum

twc is saying just snow showers?

TWC is actually now saying 1-3". They seem to think something like it goes out to sea then heads north but east of us. So it's kind of where Philly-DC gets a lot, Boston-Maine gets a lot, but we're too far to the northwest.

To some extent, Accuweather thinks the same too, but that it's close enough to give us 3-6"

[Mixum]

i have a feeling this one may be one of those that doesn't add up to much. Who knows.... tough one to predict