BEA Release Dec 8, 2022: 2021 CSA and MSA GDP (better, Boston, Chicago)
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Thanks for the hard work. But something is wrong with Baltimore/San Diego’s numbers. Their 2011 numbers in the second chart don’t match the 2011 numbers in the first chart.
Thanks a million for catching that!
Metro Area-GDP 2001-2011---10-Year Growth
1 New York----------943----1,312--+39.1%
2 Los Angeles-------518----742----+43.2%
3 Chicago-----------401----542----+35.1%
4 Washington-------262----438----+67.1%
5 Houston-----------211----382---+81.0%
6 Dallas-------------227----359---+58.1%
7 Philadelphia-------242----351--+45.0%
8 Boston-------------234----341---+45.7%
9 San Francisco-----240----329---+37.0%
10 Atlanta-----------208----281---+35.0%
11 Miami------------179----254---+41.8%
12 Seattle-----------159----251---+57.8%
13 Minneapolis------140----202---+44.2%
14 Detroit-----------183---202---+10.3%
15 Phoenix----------124---185---+49.1%
16 San Jose---------121---184---+52.0%
17 San Diego-------115---173---+50.4%
18 Baltimore--------102---158---+54.9%
19 Denver-----------107---147---+37.3%
20 St Louis----------105---142---+35.2%
21 Riverside----------78----128---+64.1%
So upon further calculation, it looks like St Louis was bumped out of the top 20 in 2011 and was replaced by Riverside.
The spread of the tech industry is a huge contributor to growth in the 2010s, but a huge slowdown is already a foot and we already seeing a negative affect on average wages in the Bay Area, and that should translate to GDP data at some point-but really the Bay Area has always been the most volatile economy I can think of, with the most gains and biggest losses. We'll see how much the area loses this time around.
2001 was the dot com bust. 2021/22 in my opinion was the App Store bust. Essentially the same thing except with apps instead of websites. People pouring in money while ignoring how much money these companies are losing (i.e. Carvanna). It collapsed for a good reason.
As I said before, I see this as a positive for the industry not a negative. When things are unrealistic, they are bound to collapse at one point which is exactly what happened. Layoffs, canceled projects, etc all are a part of the pie unfortunate. But fortunately, so is reality.
Since the “collapse” of the oil industry, Houston has gained 8 new Fortune 500 companies, only one of which will be O&G. Texas business climate has helped out right there though well California is doing the opposite.
Also a lot of cancellation happening in Austin. And a lot of former projects that are ongoing have been scaled down.
It usually takes a few years to “undo” the damage, but unless a Detroit style silencing occurs, the “reality” makes me more comfortable.
San Mateo, CA led in percentage growth over the previous decade by quite a margin, leapfrogging from 51st largest county GDP in 2011 to 15th largest in 2021, which is not bad for a suburban county of 700,000 people.
Top 25 Metropolitan Statistical Area(MSA) GDPs by 5-Year Percentage Growth 2017-2021:
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara +39.89%
Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown +37.24%
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue +33.20% Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler +29.38% Minneapolis-St Paul-Bloomington +16.21%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria +15.66%
St Louis +15.34%
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin +14.89%
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington +14.00%
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land +13.60%
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson +12.28%
PHX could pass Detroit and Minneapolis on the CSA ranking in the next 5 years. This and more like it could propel it there.
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Largest Metro Area GDPs Per Capita, 2021: $100B+
13 San Jose---------$210,040
4 San Francisco-----$144,494
9 Seattle------------$119,421
8 Boston-------------$108,389
1 New York----------$100,768
5 Washington--------$95,500
37 Salt Lake City----$93,428
41 Hartford----------$88,356
2 Los Angeles--------$86,481
18 Denver------------$85,127
22 Austin-------------$82,057
17 San Diego--------$81,253
29 Nashville---------$81,013
3 Chicago -----------$80,344
15 Minneapolis------$80,216
19 Baltimore--------$78,224
6 Dallas-------------$77,071
11 Atlanta-----------$76,985
21 Charlotte---------$76,638
10 Philadelphia-----$76,589
30 Indianapolis-----$76,199
26 Cincinnati--------$75,697
39 Raleigh-----------$74,586
7 Houston-----------$74,521
25 Portland----------$74,074
32 Columbus--------$71,594
27 Pittsburgh--------$71,398
38 Milwaukee-------$70,881
34 Cleveland--------$70,843
33 Kansas City------$70,031
12 Miami------------$68,461
24 St Louis----------$66,571
31 Sacramento-----$66,362
16 Detroit-----------$64,833
14 Phoenix----------$63,890
28 Orlando----------$62,058
42 Jacksonville------$61,698
40 Virginia Beach---$59,345
36 Las Vegas--------$59,336
23 Tampa------------$59,024
35 San Antonio------$58,363
20 Riverside---------$45,776
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