Anyone familiar with South Shore? (Chicago, Media: sale, renter, credit)

[ajolotl]

Well put, though I would argue that the truth is somewhere between "ignoring the riff raff" (which I meant to just apply to the Kenwood case -- a neighborhood that was never so bad) and "unfit for habitation". The latter is a bit exaggerated also in most cases. If you want to truly see "unfit for habitation" come down to South America. Nothing here is THAT bad

Originally Posted by PokerPlayer1

There is definitely sometimes such a thing as "true gentrification", however, as another poster alluded to, there's a massive price to be paid in terms of a diminished (often times, grotesque) quality of life if you're buying as a primary residence and want to get in while it's still 'cheap'. Simply dismissing the trajectory of gentrification as "ignoring the riff raff" is a woefully inadequate description of what the first salvo of urban-pioneers have to endure during that critical 'first decade' when the "up and coming area with all that potential" is still a 3rd world jungle of crime and squalor, pretty much totally unfit for habitation by respectable people (including those unfortunate folks who are trapped in such places as a result of life circumstances beyond their own control).

I believe the biggest mistake most people make on this issue is assuming that since gentrification exists as a concept, it will invariably come to any neighborhood that is in the city limits, by the lake and largely black. It doesn't even require the benefit of hindsight to figure out why the areas that gentrified in the last, say, 20 years did so. Plenty of people saw it with 20/20 foresight and put their money where their mouths were. A lot of the dynamics that were in play for those places aren't anywhere to be found in South Shore.

That said, I do believe I'll live to see the day when South Shore is "the next big thing". Whether it turns out to be or not depends on a lot of things that no one can predict. I'm just not going to live there myself during the changeover, but I might dip my toe in to a property to hold as a long term gentrification play, or, a "sell on the rebound" type of deal.

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by ajolotl

So, has the sustained rapid appreciation of e.g. Kenwood from the late 70s (when it was pretty rough) until now just a 30-year long series of idiots buying from each other, or is there sometimes such a thing as true gentrification.

I have a colleague who bought there in 1986 for 150K or so. Everyone told him no to. His house is worth over 2M now. Big idiot.

As Poker says, young urban whites may be willing to take a substantial safety risk to move into a more questionable area for the potential of a big payoff down the road. Everyone’s got a cousin’s best friend’s sister’s roommate who made it to the big time in a place like Bucktown 20 years ago, so it always seems tantalizingly possible. Plus, when you're young, you just don't think a cap is ever going to get busted in your you-know-what. Get enough of these little capitalistic daredevils to buy into an area and you've got something sweeter than Yoo-Hoo.

However, for that payoff to come, you need numbers and momentum. You always have to evaluate a gentrifying 'hood from that angle. ‘Hoods are like professional sports in this sense -- for every 1 guy who makes it, another 50 don't. The South Shore has the lake and housing stock going for it, and those are huge (equivalent to a 4.2 second 40 yard dash at the NFL Combine). But my concerns with it are twofold -- 1) speculators have already to some measure driven up prices so it's not really a bargain for what you have to put up with; and, 2) there many areas with potential which cost less and are safer (e.g. Cicero, Little Village [note how I said safer Drover, not safe ], and Pilsen, to name a few.

You're right, an investor in the South Shore could hit a grand slam, or not. Only time will tell. Personally, were I to join the flock, I wouldn't physically move in at this point. I'd buy a two or three flat and rent it to someone, and hire a live-in manager to watch it and take care of it.

[cxdurden]

The racialist mindsets of many people on this board is so obvious. Hyde Park and the South Shore area is probably one of the most overpoliced areas I've ever been in. CPD and UofC police are all over the place to protect you young white liberal obama-voting yuppies.

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by cxdurden

The racialist mindsets of many people on this board is so obvious. Hyde Park and the South Shore area is probably one of the most overpoliced areas I've ever been in. CPD and UofC police are all over the place to protect you young white liberal obama-voting yuppies.

Yes, the lessened necessity for police presence is one of the nice things about gentrification. That the crime rate in the South Shore is still very high despite the police presence should tell you how deep the problems are in this community. Demographic change could only do it good. Question is, will it be able to pick up the momentum in light of these issues.

[ajolotl]

I wasn't aware that there were a lot of police in South Shore. However many there are, though, it isn't enough.

Originally Posted by cxdurden

The racialist mindsets of many people on this board is so obvious. Hyde Park and the South Shore area is probably one of the most overpoliced areas I've ever been in. CPD and UofC police are all over the place to protect you young white liberal obama-voting yuppies.

[surlycue]

Originally Posted by cxdurden

The racialist mindsets of many people on this board is so obvious. Hyde Park and the South Shore area is probably one of the most overpoliced areas I've ever been in. CPD and UofC police are all over the place to protect you young white liberal obama-voting yuppies.

No offense but where are you coming up with this? Are you are 1,500 miles away googling crime stats?

[ajolotl]

I have no idea at all what South Shore will become. There is just no sense in exaggerating the current situation. I've known many people who have lived there since the 80s, both white and black. They do it because they work in Hyde Park and can get double for their money. It's a higher crime area on average with lots of quiet blocks mixed in. Not for me, but it's also not an unlivable hell hole where only a demented freak would ever set foot. I agree the prices have gotten ahead of the value in recent years.

Originally Posted by BRU67

As Poker says, young urban whites may be willing to take a substantial safety risk to move into a more questionable area for the potential of a big payoff down the road. Everyone’s got a cousin’s best friend’s sister’s roommate who made it to the big time in a place like Bucktown 20 years ago, so it always seems tantalizingly possible. Plus, when you're young, you just don't think a cap is ever going to get busted in your you-know-what. Get enough of these little capitalistic daredevils to buy into an area and you've got something sweeter than Yoo-Hoo.

However, for that payoff to come, you need numbers and momentum. You always have to evaluate a gentrifying 'hood from that angle. ‘Hoods are like professional sports in this sense -- for every 1 guy who makes it, another 50 don't. The South Shore has the lake and housing stock going for it, and those are huge (equivalent to a 4.2 second 40 yard dash at the NFL Combine). But my concerns with it are twofold -- 1) speculators have already to some measure driven up prices so it's not really a bargain for what you have to put up with; and, 2) there many areas with potential which cost less and are safer (e.g. Cicero, Little Village [note how I said safer Drover, not safe ], and Pilsen, to name a few.

You're right, an investor in the South Shore could hit a grand slam, or not. Only time will tell. Personally, were I to join the flock, I wouldn't physically move in at this point. I'd buy a two or three flat and rent it to someone, and hire a live-in manager to watch it and take care of it.

[QOESTE]

the neighborhood in Chicago i would most like to see gentrify in the next 10 years is Woodlawn With Washington Park Being a close second and South Shore Being third.
a 50 foot tall wall or a man made moat dividing Washington Park & Englewood would be a nice touch.
yes I'm serious about that idea

[Drover]

Originally Posted by cxdurden

The racialist mindsets of many people on this board is so obvious. Hyde Park and the South Shore area is probably one of the most overpoliced areas I've ever been in. CPD and UofC police are all over the place to protect you young white liberal obama-voting yuppies.

Uh... wrong. UofC police don't patrol south of 63rd Street. Even if they did the crime rate still sucks in South Shore. Nice try though.

[ajolotl]

Originally Posted by Drover

Uh... wrong. UofC police don't patrol south of 63rd Street. Even if they did the crime rate still sucks in South Shore. Nice try though.

To be precise, 39th to 64th, Cottage to Lake Shore. Your point stands, though.