Help Me With Some Neighborhoods (Chicago, Chatham: hardwood floors, section 8, to rent)

[DoubleDownTrent11]

Hey all,

I am looking to purchase some multifamily homes to rent out on the South Shore of Chicago. I know some of these areas are pretty beat up and it will be Section 8 housing. The two areas I am going to avoid are West Englewood and Roseland. That leaves me with these neighborhoods. I know they are in bad shape, but long term wise which of these areas neighborhoods do you view as improving the most over the next decade and why?

South Shore
Chatham
Auburn Gresham
Greater Grand Crossing
South Chicago

Thanks so much folks I appreciate it.

PS I notice someone posted something similar recently but the neighborhoods in that thread were not exactly the same.

[jonnynonos]

To a meaningful degree only South Shore--about a century from now.

CW suggests gentrification will spread down the lakeshore south from the loop, but it's going to be a long time until anything that far south sees much meaningful gentrification IMO.

The others... practically speaking never.

Chicago is significantly losing black population, so those neighborhoods are actually probably emptying out.

[marothisu]

In a decade? None of them. South Shore has some nice areas and I know of some decently nice places being put on the market, so in certain areas, my guess would be South Shore...Everytime I've been down there, it's seemed like one of those block by block areas of the city where one minute you're in a nice little area and then the next you're in a run down section.

[DoubleDownTrent11]

Originally Posted by jonnynonos

To a meaningful degree only South Shore--about a century from now.

CW suggests gentrification will spread down the lakeshore south from the loop, but it's going to be a long time until anything that far south sees much meaningful gentrification IMO.

The others... practically speaking never.

Chicago is significantly losing black population, so those neighborhoods are actually probably emptying out.

A century? Isn't that a bit hyperbolic?

I live in Los Angeles and people could have said the same thing about Watts and Compton which was the murder capital of the USA in the 80's and 90's and now they are relatively safe areas, gang violence and murders are way down. They are turning into decent working class areas. 6-7 years ago I would never have ventured downtown LA and now the change in just the last 2-3 years has been incredible.

Chicago is an incredibly economically diverse city and has the ability to bounce back from a bad economy. I don't think it is crazy to think at least one of those areas could see some improvements in the next 10-20 years.

[TBideon]

None of those properties. None, none, none. There is no evidence, not any hint of momentum for those areas. No reason for any momentum. Far too many crimes and hostile elements there. Predominantly ghetto, vacancies, and an aging working class population that empties out year after year.

It's just not worth the heartache.

[marothisu]

I do think though without positive investment in any of these areas, nothing will happen. I don't mean gentrification. I wish I had more free $$ sometimes.. I think it's great that people from outside of the city want to invest in these areas. I only hope if they do it will bring about a positive impact.

[ProgMichael]

If you're planning on banking on those five neighborhoods, definitely South Shore or South Chicago. There's definitely risk involved, but if this (Chicago Lakeside: Our Projects: McCaffery Interests) ends up coming to fruition, that's major potential increase in property value (gentrification?). I think your best bet is along the Lake as well. That's one asset that's a selling point that isn't going anywhere.

[marothisu]

^ As much as people want to give it ****, South Shore does have some decent/good areas. However it has some bad areas too, but I definitely agree that it might be the best in the list for short term investment. I was talking with someone a few months ago who was moving to South Shore and how there are really nice renovated places down there for $800/mo for 2 bedrooms. Stainless steel and hardwood floors, but they're on the edge of dangerous areas. We need some trailblazers to get those places.

[choo_choo_train_lol]

Originally Posted by DoubleDownTrent11

A century? Isn't that a bit hyperbolic?

I live in Los Angeles and people could have said the same thing about Watts and Compton which was the murder capital of the USA in the 80's and 90's and now they are relatively safe areas, gang violence and murders are way down. They are turning into decent working class areas. 6-7 years ago I would never have ventured downtown LA and now the change in just the last 2-3 years has been incredible.

Chicago is an incredibly economically diverse city and has the ability to bounce back from a bad economy. I don't think it is crazy to think at least one of those areas could see some improvements in the next 10-20 years.

The factors that changed Watts and Compton were hinted by census data from over 20 years ago. It's not happening on the South side.

[DoubleDownTrent11]

Okay so it sounds like none of those areas have any hope for improvement. How about which areas do you feel have bottomed out and won't get worse?