How Has Your Areas Real Estate Market Performed? (Chicago, Naperville: for sale, 2014)

[mwj119]

We are seriously considering a move back to Chicagoland to be closer to my wife's family. As someone who spent much of his childhood in IL, and has since lived in IL a second time - both Chicago and northern suburbs - I am very comfortable making the jump back. I like the area, and absolutely love the city. With the news of our second child coming, we have ruled out the possibility of moving downtown. We like a yard and a garage to park in, and do prefer the community environment many Chicago suburbs offer for our kids.

My biggest hesitation is largely predicated around purchasing a home. Illinois has been a volatile market, even with Chicago's continued economic advancements. Within many of Chicago's most desirable suburbs, values have not seemed to reach pre-recession values. That tells me either A. Pre-recession Chicago was inflated more than the rest of the country, or B. The Chicago suburban real estate market is in fact suffering. And, as a result of those valuations and slow growth, more Chicagoland homeowners are under water with their mortgage than any other sizable MSA in the country. I see a ton of inventory compared to other MSAs, long(er) sales cycles, and a ton of homes for sale with massively reduced prices.

So, I ask the homeowners, what has been your experience with your own home in the Chicago area? How about friends and relatives? Are you personally concerned about your home's value, and is anyone considering selling for this very reason? Are there specific suburbs that you'd guess are more bulletproof than others? We assumed, for example, that Wilmette would be a great choice, but have seen some uneasy statistics pointing to it's long-term stagnancy, and even a reduction in home values in 2018.

The obvious choice is to stay close to the city, and to choose transit friendly neighborhoods within those locations. But, I'm looking for personal experiences with your homes/your towns, and some insider input here..

[JJski]

We moved to Chicago from out of state about 5 years ago - bought a home in La Grange, 5 minute walk to Stone or La Grange station in Historic District about 6 minutes from downtown La Grange. The house has greatly appreciated +36.29% in that time if you go off zillow values - I really wish this was accurate, maybe... But houses around us still sell quick... I believe location, location, location is still key...

I don't think many parts of IL have fared as well or have come back as the towns that are dialed in as transit friendly, have good schools, safe, have a vibrant downtown and are close to the big city... today's buyer's want it all...

Sounds to me like you know what your doing via your obvious...

[Kluch]

We moved from Nashville (super hot market) to Chicago in the early spring of this year. I can't necessarily answer a lot of your questions/concerns other than to say, we did it and I'm not super worried about selling our home anytime soon (since we just bought it) but I don't expect the market to get anywhere as near competitive as it was in Nashville when we left (for obvious reasons - taxes, weather).

We moved to be closer to family as well and just knew we would have to endure the illinois financial climate and enjoy the time back in the midwest.

[mwj119]

Originally Posted by JJski

We moved to Chicago from out of state about 5 years ago - bought a home in La Grange, 5 minute walk to Stone or La Grange station in Historic District about 6 minutes from downtown La Grange. The house has greatly appreciated +36.29% in that time if you go off zillow values - I really wish this was accurate, maybe... But houses around us still sell quick... I believe location, location, location is still key...

I don't think many parts of IL have fared as well or have come back as the towns that are dialed in as transit friendly, have good schools, safe, have a vibrant downtown and are close to the big city... today's buyer's want it all...

Sounds to me like you know what your doing via your obvious...

Seems like a few sub-markets have taken the biggest hit around Chicago- Luxury (of course), 60's/70's/80's built homes/neighborhoods, and outer ring suburbs. I notice that in Glenview, for example, a lot of the mixed-material, ranch and split level neighborhoods seem to really struggle in selling. I don't know if it's simply that these neighborhoods were largely built away from the core (because the core and surrounding areas are older), or it's that these homes aren't aesthetically nice/less functional floor plans. Maybe both? Then again, those types of homes and neighborhoods seem to be doing OK in Mount Prospect. Fortunately for La Grange, it seems like there isn't much of that until you go to the southern areas of town. I'd think La Grange is well positioned, at the very least, to maintain strong housing values. A lot of intangibles there like walkability, short train ride, nice downtown, and a lot of pre-WWII housing stock.

Where we are now has seen significant growth in prices since pre-recession highs. And, it's been very easy to identify areas that will do better than others. Same way with the Seattle area. Chicagoland, on the other hand, seems nearly impossible to predict outside of the city itself.. Wilmette prices are down? Buffalo Grove up? Hinsdale way down, Western Springs up? Deerfield is seeing strong recent growth in values, while Northbrook actually saw a YoY decline? Heh?

[wase4711]

if you are buying now, and plan on staying for awhile, you should be able to pick up a nice suburban home at super cheap prices; the city itself, at least the most popular areas, seem to have help their value pretty well, but, the suburban market, in some of the nicest areas, have super depressed values now, and havent come back at all from their recession lows; we sold our house in hinsdale, 12 years after we bought it, in April of this year, for 90k LESS than we paid for it in 2005, and, I have several friends who are doing everything they can to sell their houses in suburban chicago, and are finding it almost impossible to find anyone who will buy them; their houses range from 270-600k, so it doesnt seem to matter what price point, and they areas range from Lake in the Hills to Downers Grove..

Its a buyers market big time in Illinois now, so if you are ok with the ongoing tax/financial nightmare that is Illinois now, you should be able to pick up a nice suburban house way under "market price"..just be prepared to pay through the nose when it comes to taxes of every and any sort, and, brace yourself for higher taxes, and even lower property values...

I lived in Illinois for decades, and watched things go from sterling to sewage, so not sure what the long term outlook would be for someone moving there now....good luck!

[fusillirob1983]

I bought in Naperville in 2016 a bit below the median home price there. I could probably sell for a 5-7% gain today based on comps in my neighborhood. I’d be seeing even larger gains if I bought in 2014.

JJSki has a good point. It totally depends on location, specific suburb and even the price range your house likely falls in. I could have afforded to buy when towns like LaGrange and Elmhurst had 2012 prices, but those types of towns have bounced back. I was priced out by the time I was looking in ‘16.

[RJA29]

Micro-locations are _key_.

Purchased in Downers Grove, within walking distance to the train and in a great school district. Appreciation alone, the house is up about 10% in 2.5 years. Yes, I bought in the mid-range of the area (see: not the tear-downs that abound). I suspect if I needed to sell, it would be easy.

However, some homes that aren't a sub-10 minute walk to the train, are in different school districts, might not do as well.

Consider the precise location - it really matters to those moving from the cities that are used to getting around easily.

[JJski]

Rja is spot on with micro-locations. I also believe these younger buyers/families coming out of the city are much more tech savvy/data tuned in. The first thing they do is research school stats and town amenities/events. Then when they actually look at house they pull out their iphone/droid to map walkscore and how long it takes to get to the train station, restaurants, starbucks, bars, parks, etc...

Gotta think like these whipper-snappers that are taking over... I also think the home buyers tool sets have great changed even over the last 10 years - buyers can now evaluate with surgical precision before engaging with a local agent...

btw - I think Western Springs is up because it is still high end desirable but not ultra premium Luxury like Hinsdale so affordable to more folks for that micro _key_ location near downtown... try to score a nice home near DTH for under a mil - you can still in DTWS. The Audi vs. the Porsche i guess - Both are still amazing... Additionally i think Western Springs has really upped its game downtown recently/even since we moved here. DTWS have added more restaurants and bars so increasing vibrancy... On the North Shore side when you think of vibrant - really just Evanston stands out in my opinion...

[wase4711]

https://www.illinoispolicy.org/chica...arket-in-2019/

[fusillirob1983]

Originally Posted by wase4711

https://www.illinoispolicy.org/chica...arket-in-2019/

That article addresses some facts regarding the property tax issue that plagues many areas in Illinois, but it's also a right-leaning website that has a pretty clear bias. I don't think the info in the article should be ignored, but I'm also more concerned about a potential 2020 recession impacting my house's value in the next couple years than anything related to people leaving Illinois.

That said, from my own view of just watching real estate prices the past few years, I still think it depends on where specifically you buy geographically/school district-wise/micro-location wise. It also depends on your price range.

I think RJA and I, having read his posts previously, have not bought at neither a market peak or at the high end of the price range in our respective suburbs, so that probably helps us.

Personally, I probably I wouldn't go buy a high-end home somewhere unless money was no object and I wasn't concerned about losing value, so again, depends on your price range.

Someone feel free to correct me if they have facts, but among more popular suburbs with more mid-priced housing, I have yet to see the increase in interest rates this year slow down the price increases that have been occurring in hot areas the past 3-4 years.