How Has Your Areas Real Estate Market Performed? (Chicago, Evanston: short sale, condo)

[Justabystander]

A good source of up to the day pricing is a website called Homes by Marco-market trends where you can see up to the day prices and sales for homes in every suburb of Chicago and Northern Illinois in general. In Hinsdale where I live, homes are up 3.5% this year to a median of around $900,000 and sales up up 100% from last year. I think this website is better than Zillow for an overall view of the market. I also think micro-markets are important too, and good access to train and downtown areas certainly help.

You also need to visit the towns and see what is happening. Is there alot of rehab/teardown activity? That could be a good sign when and if the market gets hot, and now for continued desirability.

[wase4711]

I dont think the interest rate increase is what is slowing down/stopping RE sales in Illinois; its more the fiscal meltdown/tax nightmare/pension funding crisis that scares people from buying in Illinois..
If you have a job waiting for you in the city, and want to live in the city,its a no brainier to move here, especially if you are you are young, and can bounce back from any fiscal nightmare that may happen in Illinois in the next couple of years..

But the housing sale crisis is real in most of the suburban areas of Chicago, and in most price ranges, and, that is a real problem for stabilizing the fiscal nightmare in Illinois..

[RJA29]

Originally Posted by fusillirob1983

...I'm also more concerned about a potential 2020 recession impacting my house's value in the next couple years than anything related to people leaving Illinois.

... I still think it depends on where specifically you buy geographically/school district-wise/micro-location wise. It also depends on your price range...

Someone feel free to correct me if they have facts, but among more popular suburbs with more mid-priced housing, I have yet to see the increase in interest rates this year slow down the price increases that have been occurring in hot areas the past 3-4 years.

fusillirob1983 is right on in this post (edited by me to highlight the key points).

1. Price matters;
2. Older/ cusp Millennials (like the poster here - I assume - and myself) who are in reasonable price ranges still want to buy, and there is no lack of people wanting to purchase ~$500K homes in good suburbs;
3. Location is more important than ever. Renovations are way up - because people find a location they like, and can't afford the dream home here, so they make their home the dream home.

https://www.npr.org/2018/08/06/62941...-of-the-market

[fusillirob1983]

Originally Posted by wase4711

I dont think the interest rate increase is what is slowing down/stopping RE sales in Illinois; its more the fiscal meltdown/tax nightmare/pension funding crisis that scares people from buying in Illinois.

In my last post I agreed with what you're stating about interest rates - they've increased but are not affecting prices yet - hot areas have seen home prices increase in spite of interest rates increasing.

Areas that are less stable, bad locations, bad schools or have out of wack property taxes are having issues.

[mwj119]

Originally Posted by fusillirob1983

In my last post I agreed with what you're stating about interest rates - they've increased but are not affecting prices yet - hot areas have seen home prices increase in spite of interest rates increasing.

Areas that are less stable, bad locations, bad schools or have out of wack property taxes are having issues.

This is the entire point of the thread. It's that I can't seem to find a real rhyme or reason some areas are prospering while others aren't. Why would Deerfield be doing well, while Northbrook not? Is there any reason at all that Wilmette RE has been poor? And, folks are talking about growth since 2014, 2016, but what about % growth since 2006, 2007. Those are the stats, to me, that are most alarming.

If over the course of a decade you go through a recession, and the economy bounces back and thrives, with standard inflation as part of the equation, you sure would believe that home values would be up from decade old highs. that's simply not the case for a large portion of Chicago suburbs, including those that check all of the boxes like schools, location, transit, downtown. Again, this is the alarming part, and where my inquiry stems from.

[fusillirob1983]

Originally Posted by mwj119

This is the entire point of the thread. It's that I can't seem to find a real rhyme or reason some areas are prospering while others aren't. Why would Deerfield be doing well, while Northbrook not? Is there any reason at all that Wilmette RE has been poor? And, folks are talking about growth since 2014, 2016, but what about % growth since 2006, 2007. Those are the stats, to me, that are most alarming.

If over the course of a decade you go through a recession, and the economy bounces back and thrives, with standard inflation as part of the equation, you sure would believe that home values would be up from decade old highs. that's simply not the case for a large portion of Chicago suburbs, including those that check all of the boxes like schools, location, transit, downtown. Again, this is the alarming part, and where my inquiry stems from.

I know, there's been other posts that have discussing generic trends, thus my responses to those posts, sorry if steering off topic. Hopefully my initial post helped shed a little light on Naperville if that's at all on your radar.

[Vlajos]

Our house's value has increased almost 50% in the 7 years since we bought it. We do live in the City though. But it is a single family home with a detached 2 car garage and a private yard.

[mwj119]

Originally Posted by Vlajos

Our house's value has increased almost 50% in the 7 years since we bought it. We do live in the City though. But it is a single family home with a detached 2 car garage and a private yard.

No question that the city has been pretty consistent, and it's been pretty easy to identify high growth areas. Logan Square, Bucktown, West Loop, etc.

[Hiruko]

Chicagoland's housing market has lagged the nation for many decades. However, the current sluggishness and outright long-term depreciation in certain suburban markets come down to a lack of demand. I grew up primarily in Evanston and we are poised to put my childhood home on the market in the near future. My parents purchased the home in the mid-90s. They negotiated a hard bargain and got a pretty steep discount on the property that was owned by a divorcing couple at the time. The home has since tripled in value without significant improvements (no expanded footprint, gut rehab, etc.). Granted, this is not a typical scenario and this home is worth well over a million dollars at this point. They had considered putting the house on the market one decade ago. The home recently appraised for less than $100k less than what it appraised for 10 years ago—roughly the same.

I would not describe any housing market as "bulletproof." I'm even reluctant to say that some are any more reliable than others. I think that certain locations are easier to sell. When I say locations, I mean hyper-localities. For example, Winnetka's market is cold. There is a lot of inventory and price reductions are widespread. However, the Winnetka lakefront remains very desirable and very active. My parents' Evanston home is on the lakefront. That has enduring appeal. Demand and scarcity are fairly consistent for lakefront and lakefront-adjacent properties. Value is not their driving consideration for selling.

My most recent home purchase was in Lake Forest. I move too often and have a habit of making unprofitable flips. However, I have every intention of owning this property for at least 10 years. In 2018, I paid 40% less than the previous owner paid for the home in 2003. I expect the value to remain stable or fall maybe 5-10% over the next 4-5 years. One of my go-to agents, the one who represented me on this purchase, has prepared me for the potential for the home to lose 5-10% over the next several years.

My advice: 1. Buy a home where you would most like to live, but don't outright ignore the desirability trends. 2. Live in it for at least 10 years, preferably more than 30. (The longer you live there, the less likely you are to find yourself upside-down or living in something worth less than what you paid for it). 3. Do not pay more than 90% of the asking price and do not fall in love with overpriced homes (or any home for that matter). You need to get a steal of a deal—They're asking $1mil, you get it for $800k. 4. Get connected with a ferocious mortgage broker. Finance the home for the lowest interest rate and smallest downpayment you possibly can.

[ToriaT]

Lots of press about Chicago's home markets.....I've sold two condos and a townhouse in the past few years. The condos sold rather quickly (not fast but in a reasonable amount of time) and it took about a year to sell the townhouse, mostly because buyers were looking for first floor bedrooms which this did not have or the "gray look" which this did not have.

Built a brand new house in a luxury enclave in the suburbs...some people are selling here for a variety of reasons (relocation due to jobs, etc) and it does take a while to sell.... anything in the upper market may take a while. Homes priced at more modest levels have been selling. I would not worry about it. Don't expect to make a killing if you sell, hold on to your property for at least five years, don't try to sell during a downturn, and keep your property in good condition and up to date with repairs and painting, etc and you won't have to worry if you buy in a good location.