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Old 06-08-2019, 05:44 PM
 
14,299 posts, read 11,677,294 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JJonesIII View Post
Then they didn't understand the market or Prop 13.
Well, I understand Prop 13, but back in 1997 when we bought our house I guess we didn't understand the market either, because we had absolutely no idea it would take off the way it did. People were supposed to know that housing prices would more than double in seven years?

 
Old 06-08-2019, 05:44 PM
 
1,355 posts, read 1,942,727 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saibot View Post
...and sold their cheap-at-the-time houses. Now they deeply regret that, because they lost what would have ended up in a few years to be a ton of equity, and most of the time they have been unable to come back and buy another house.
You said it well here. Currently, more people are moving out of California than ever before in history. The conservative media taught them that Californians are now homeless and will become like Venezuela soon.

What happens if the conservatives are wrong again like the 1990s before after the Los Angeles Riots, and these illegal aliens and caravans are ACTUALLY contributing to society, laid LOTS of new babies, and when they grow up, they need a house too, and then all the home prices in California suddenly turn over $1 million starting price due to continuing shortages for last 40 years. And then the Phoenix residents are sad to learn their homes only worth $300,000 still after small appreciation.

Last edited by waltchan; 06-08-2019 at 05:58 PM..
 
Old 06-08-2019, 05:48 PM
 
1,355 posts, read 1,942,727 times
Reputation: 904
Quote:
Originally Posted by JJonesIII View Post
Actually, I just saw your neighbor last week and he said had he stayed, his house would have been foreclosed on because they couldn't afford to live there with the high COL (claimed they were going bankrupt). He said he's happy to have a house in his conservative small town and to be able to put food on his table (something that was tough for him in California). He also said that even though he took a salary cut, it was like he got a raise because the COL was 1/3 as much as where he came from and now he's able to save for retirement. So much for that.
They moved out on June 1998 (sold for $177,000), due to wife's consent willing to get away, actually (but husband didn't want to move), as she was afraid of Black people around. They LOST over $1 million of net-worth (including wages) due to not being tolerant enough, and they now regretted each day after sending me a private message Facebook (we're friends, but they are jealous). In my neighborhood today, Hispanics and Asians are fast becoming majority. That same house is now appraised at $725,000 today after full-renovation.

Last edited by waltchan; 06-08-2019 at 06:00 PM..
 
Old 06-08-2019, 05:54 PM
 
18,172 posts, read 16,384,702 times
Reputation: 9328
Quote:
Originally Posted by waltchan View Post
You said it well here. Currently, more people are moving out of California than ever before in history. The conservative media taught them that Californians are now homeless and will become like Venezuela soon.

What happens if they are wrong again like the 1990s after the Los Angeles Riots, and these illegal aliens are actually contributing to society, laid lots of new babies, and when they grow up, they need a house too, and then the home prices in California suddenly turn over $1 million starting price due to continuing shortages for last 40 years. And then the Phoenix residents are sad to learn their homes only worth $300,000 still after small appreciation.
Just looked online at a few @ $300,000.00 homes in Phoenix and in 2012 the typical value was ... $100,000.00. Not a bad increase is it? They are appreciating due to people from CA selling and moving there.
 
Old 06-08-2019, 06:18 PM
 
1,203 posts, read 835,299 times
Reputation: 1391
Quote:
Originally Posted by saibot View Post
Well, I understand Prop 13, but back in 1997 when we bought our house I guess we didn't understand the market either, because we had absolutely no idea it would take off the way it did. People were supposed to know that housing prices would more than double in seven years?
I know in the Bay Area, there hasn't been a period in the last 40 or so years where it hasn't exceeded the previous highs after a recession. If you were looking at the trends, how could you not have anticipated significant future appreciation in most major metropolitan areas of California? And you have two periods prior to the time you're talking about where prices did double. It's not like there's a lot of area to build. The million dollars the OP is talking about is over a longer period of time than 7 years, so yeah, most could have anticipated that.

 
Old 06-08-2019, 06:36 PM
 
Location: On the water.
21,725 posts, read 16,327,107 times
Reputation: 19799
Quote:
Originally Posted by waltchan View Post
They moved out on June 1998 (sold for $177,000), due to wife's consent willing to get away, actually (but husband didn't want to move), as she was afraid of Black people around. They LOST over $1 million of net-worth (including wages) due to not being tolerant enough, and they now regretted each day after sending me a private message Facebook (we're friends, but they are jealous). In my neighborhood today, Hispanics and Asians are fast becoming majority. That same house is now appraised at $725,000 today after full-renovation.
Whooops ... the update is a be-otch.
 
Old 06-08-2019, 08:12 PM
 
1,203 posts, read 835,299 times
Reputation: 1391
Quote:
Originally Posted by waltchan View Post
They moved out on June 1998 (sold for $177,000), due to wife's consent willing to get away, actually (but husband didn't want to move), as she was afraid of Black people around. They LOST over $1 million of net-worth (including wages) due to not being tolerant enough, and they now regretted each day after sending me a private message Facebook (we're friends, but they are jealous). In my neighborhood today, Hispanics and Asians are fast becoming majority. That same house is now appraised at $725,000 today after full-renovation.
Yeah, I know of a couple of families. One stayed in California and could never afford a house so they rented. The other was in the same boat but moved to a small, rural, conservative area. The one living in California are in debt up to their ears. The one that moved to the small rural town, have a home, money they had saved for their children education, and are well on their way to having 1 1/2 million for retirement. They left because they didn't like living among Liberals who never saw a tax increase they didn't like. Anecdotes are fun, huh?

P.S. If that home is only worth $725k today, they must have been in a crappy neighborhood. Most homes in my neck of the woods in that price range are over $800k.
 
Old 06-08-2019, 09:51 PM
 
14,299 posts, read 11,677,294 times
Reputation: 39059
Quote:
Originally Posted by JJonesIII View Post
I know in the Bay Area, there hasn't been a period in the last 40 or so years where it hasn't exceeded the previous highs after a recession. If you were looking at the trends, how could you not have anticipated significant future appreciation in most major metropolitan areas of California? And you have two periods prior to the time you're talking about where prices did double. It's not like there's a lot of area to build. The million dollars the OP is talking about is over a longer period of time than 7 years, so yeah, most could have anticipated that.
We live in Orange County, not the Bay Area. And market prices looked like this.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATNHPIUS06059A

There was no recent precedent for the steep rise in the early 2000s. Sorry if I wasn't paying attention before the 1980s; I was in elementary school.
 
Old 06-08-2019, 09:57 PM
 
Location: Redwood City, CA
15,250 posts, read 12,947,351 times
Reputation: 54050
Quote:
Originally Posted by Electrician4you View Post
For the most part everything is relative.

I had a friend who moved to Montana. He makes great money there 80k a year. That’s 25k more than the average there. He loves it there and I’m happy for him.

I have friends who moved to Virginia, Texas, Georgia, Washington, Nevada, Colorado, North Carolina etc. bout 80% of them want to move back but are priced out. Even if they waited till prices dropped their houses lose value job offer may not come etc. so they are out regardless.

California isn’t for everyone. Personally when I retire I’m gonna keep my properties here and buy elsewhere. Be a resident there but keep properties here.
You’re going to pay taxes in both states?
 
Old 06-09-2019, 12:54 AM
 
1,355 posts, read 1,942,727 times
Reputation: 904
Quote:
Originally Posted by expatCA View Post
Just looked online at a few @ $300,000.00 homes in Phoenix and in 2012 the typical value was ... $100,000.00. Not a bad increase is it? They are appreciating due to people from CA selling and moving there.
Phoenix area still has TONS of undeveloped land, so there will always be homes for sale competing at no higher than $300,000 range. Los Angeles has no more land left, so home prices reserve the right to reach $1 million without notice.

If there's another recession, I would invest in Riverside, CA before Phoenix, AZ and Las Vegas NV.
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