Overcrowded? Who is leaving and why? (Bend, Corvallis: 2014, apartments, rentals)

[NW Crow]

I get the impression that a monthly rental in Niseko or nearby is rare or expensive. But in rough terms what would one need to pay for a basic, low end 1BR or suite in the summer? I couldn't find the answer quickly on the web. But I could dig deeper if needed. Just curious at this point.

[NW Crow]

Has anyone moved from Bend to Sheridan WY (or vice versa)? Huge difference in politics but both good, diverse outdoor activity towns. Size difference can be seen as advantage to one or other for different people.

[fumbling]

I visited Bend in March of this year and found it to be a great place to visit.

To the poster who is living in Hokkaido, assuming you grew up in Bend how did you learn Japanese well enough to live in Hokkaido where I imagine no one speaks English?

[backcountryjack]

One answer to the OP's question about overcrowding on trails lies here:


https://www.statesmanjournal.com/sto...ers/542926002/


It's not just the quantity of people moving here but also the quality, or lack thereof. A ranger friend who patrols the Three Sisters Wilderness says wilderness ethics seem to be in decline with each passing year. The head ranger called the TSW little more than an "urban park" in a news article. Folks will go out and defile the wilderness to get their "selfie" or whatever and then hit the bars downtown and get falling-down drunk, wake up and do it all again the next day. This is a generalization of course, but not by much. Bend is becoming a sad place, but then, these problems aren't limited to Bend or even Oregon. The quality of citizen in this country seems to be in a precipitous decline.


My two cents - your mileage may vary.

[StealthRabbit]

Originally Posted by NW Crow

Has anyone moved from Bend to Sheridan WY (or vice versa)? Huge difference in politics but both good, diverse outdoor activity towns. Size difference can be seen as advantage to one or other for different people.

My dad (from Colorado) lived in Sheridan, WY for many yrs.

It is not less expensive than Bend, but is less crowded, as it is not QUITE as close to California (large influx) as Bend.

But WY (while income tax free), has a lot of ownership challenges (Non-disclosure state + oil / energy state = high fluctuations in resale ability / price) Boom or Bust. Sheridan has a lot of Jackson WY refugees. (Jackson residents force to leave due to Californication of their generations old home in / near Jackson.)

[NW Crow]

Originally Posted by NW Crow

Bend was an early mover in a barely acceptable location with a diverse, nearby outdoor environment. Momentum built on itself. It is unlikely many rural locations take off that much if it hasn't already happened. But if they are going to have at least a mini-boom I set 5 criteria for that possibility:


1. At least a 10k population base & associated infrastructure.


2. Within 4 hours of a substantial metro.


3. Average age under 40.


4. At least 40% Democratic voters.


5. At least 20% with a 4 yr degree.


Checking the cities I mentioned, Medford, McMinnville and Monmouth meet all the criteria. LaGrande and Pendleton are a bit too conservative. Klamath Falls is too conservative and a bit too old. Redmond isn't quite up to the educational criteria but will get there. Being close to Bend obviously made it a lot easier. Prineville misses on educational and poltical grounds. It is growing because of proximity to Bend and probably wouldn't on its own. Cottage Grove misses on education attainment. Grants Pass on education and politics. Roseburg on political & age criteria. Florence misses by a huge amount on age criteria and slightly on size but has done well. Hood River meets all the criteria easily except base size. When it soon reaches that base size it will likely see larger gains. If you add in White Salmon WA they just reaching this threshold. Corvallis and Eugene of course crush all the criteria.


These are test criteria and not everybody's. But if a community misses on two it seems less likely to breakout unless helped by other circumstances, like a strong neighbor (Bend, Medford, Portland, etc.) If a community hits all the criteria, prospects appear good in cases checked. Maybe you can hit all and still not do above average growth. I dunno, haven't absolutely checked everybody. Could fail if neighbors are stronger, I guess.


The relative quality of the outdoor opportunities matter in a western state. And how well known the area and opportunities are.


I don't know how Bend did on several of the criteria 30-50 years ago. Might look later. But the criteria of today may not have been exactly the same then.

What other cities meet these criteria? Well, among others, Camas WA, Boise ID, Littleton CO (almost. a little old.), Helena MT. Places that some on CityData forum fleeing Bend or CA or CO are now in (or considering). Some conservatives or anti-liberals or anti-government or anti-growth. They still went with places that are not that conservative dominant, not that anti-government, places that were still growing. Interesting.


Places that had these criteria in common with the places they left. The criteria aren't that restrictive; but with the one slight exception, these choices didn't change from any of these criteria shared by the places they left. I guess these are not the problems per se. Or if any sort of are, they weren't decisive negatives. Don't like or agree with non-conservatives much? Well, I guess you can maintain that stance even if you choose to live in an area that is not particularly conservative dominant. Some will go for that of course. But not all. Some like the restaurants, the arts, the government services of the places they picked and are near (education, airports, etc.) apparently over more conservative options. Despite differences in how people vote, there may be a broader agreement on how / where they choose to live. Don't like growth? You might still choose a growing or fast growing area because of the urban amenities and perhaps the educated / socially oriented people.

[BendLocal]

People are flocking to Bend which is number 4 on the overall list of fastest growing cities in the U.S. and number 2 on the fastest growing small cities list.

https://wallethub.com/edu/fastest-growing-cities/7010/

[Thom52]

Originally Posted by BendLocal

People are flocking to Bend which is number 4 on the overall list of fastest growing cities in the U.S. and number 2 on the fastest growing small cities list.

https://wallethub.com/edu/fastest-growing-cities/7010/

They flock here.

Then they discover there really are no jobs, even for hard working folks.

And they discover the reality of a "real winter", especially coming from places that don't really have winter.

And they discover the reality of dust and smoke in a dry climate.

I see a lot of turnover in our "affordable" neighborhood, people moving in then moving out in a year or two when the realities sink in.

[BendLocal]

Originally Posted by Thom52

They flock here.

Then they discover there really are no jobs, even for hard working folks.

And they discover the reality of a "real winter", especially coming from places that don't really have winter.

And they discover the reality of dust and smoke in a dry climate.

I see a lot of turnover in our "affordable" neighborhood, people moving in then moving out in a year or two when the realities sink in.

The huge population increase, which spans many years, suggests that your anecdotal evidence can only apply to a small number of residents. Net inflows are much higher than net outflows so the far majority of residents are staying.

https://www.ktvz.com/news/growth-sti...tops/719589167

“Most of our growth has been through the number of people moving in exceeding the number of people moving out,” Bend Senior Planner Damian Syrnyk said Thursday. “That’s also called net migration, and that’s accounted for about 88 to 89 percent of our growth for quite some time.”

[NW Crow]

It looks like 6 move in, 1 leaves in the recent data, if I read it right.