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Consider how these odds were calculated. The oddsmaker would have examined all teams from the past who were x number of games behind with x number of games to play, and counted how many times teams in those positions went on to win a division or wild card spot. Dividing those events by the number of opportunities yields the odds percentage.
But....in order for that 1.2% chance to exist, there had to have been at least one team which was in the position currently occupied by Washington, and did indeed go on to win the division. That also means that there had to have been at least one team which blew so large a lead...and there was....the 2007 Mets who held a seven game lead on September 12th, then went 5-12 down the home stretch, blowing it on the final day.
The Phillies of course was the team which came from seven back. They went 13-4 down that same stretch.
Also, the 2007 & 2008 Phils were a team with gritty players, and clubhouse leaders (Victorino, Rollins, Werth in his prime) that was a championship caliber team that had a swagger attached to them, and a manager in Charlie Manuel who was one of the best in the games those years.
The 2015 Nats are a bunch of underachievers, no clubhouse leader, put the target squarely on them this year from Bryce's "just give me my ring now" to Werth's statement in July "Nothing's changed. We know, everyone in the division knows we are still the team to beat" that has folded like a lawn chair when the going got tough, and is managed by a complete imbecile. As I said to somebody today I'd be more surprised if the Nats cut the deficit to 3 games by October 2 than if the Mets won by 15+ games.
Correct. Phils were miles ahead of 2015 Nats, who have been just marginally away from .500 all year long. NL East had 2 excellent teams during those NYM/Phil battle years, just like early decade Braves/NY Mets during Piazza era.
Now there will be just 1 team well above 90 wins in the NL east, and I'm expecting Nats to finish around 82 or 83 win mark.
I would not call Nats underachievers; I think the hype got ridiculous just by one signing (Scherzer), ignoring Werth who has been declining for years, and little protection to keep opponents pitching to Harper..who is the only guy in your lineup to truly fear IMO. In addition, your starting pitching is either injury prone (Stras) or just average to slightly above average (Scherzer's 3.03 IMO is the latter).
You had a few shots to shine in October, and like the Phils last decade, that is over. Free agent losses will weaken Nats this year, particularly Span's great OBP, BA, and solid D. I am optimistic the Fish and Mets will be solid in '16, but not the rest of the NL East. Perhaps for several years each.
And the Phils (2007) were vastly superior to the mediocre, always within spitting distance of .500 2015 Nats.
That was not really apparent until they ripped off that 13-4 final stretch.
In 2007 the Phillies were a sub .500 team as late as July 19th. Their record was 47-48. Then they won five straight, climbing to four games over .500, but after that they were just three games over .500 for the next 45 games.
Then came September 13th, they won six in a row to start that 13-4 streak. That was very impressive, but only wound up being meaningful because it was simultaneous with the Mets collapse. Had the Mets won just one more game, had they managed to go 6-11 down that stretch, then NY would have taken the division and the Phillies would justs be remembered as the team which got hot a bit too late.
On July 19th of this season, the Nationals were 49-41, eight games above .500. As late as August 10th they were still five games over .500. It has been since then that they have started trailing blue smoke, going 13-16 to bring us to their present record.
That was not really apparent until they ripped off that 13-4 final stretch.
In 2007 the Phillies were a sub .500 team as late as July 19th. Their record was 47-48. Then they won five straight, climbing to four games over .500, but after that they were just three games over .500 for the next 45 games.
Then came September 13th, they won six in a row to start that 13-4 streak. That was very impressive, but only wound up being meaningful because it was simultaneous with the Mets collapse. Had the Mets won just one more game, had they managed to go 6-11 down that stretch, then NY would have taken the division and the Phillies would justs be remembered as the team which got hot a bit too late.
On July 19th of this season, the Nationals were 49-41, eight games above .500. As late as August 10th they were still five games over .500. It has been since then that they have started trailing blue smoke, going 13-16 to bring us to their present record.
49-41 is just.544. Good, not division winning good usually. Trends to 89-73.
I figured it would take at least 92 wins, minimum, to take the East.
If we took NYM last year 78 wins, add 5 for adding Harvey, add 4 for adding Syndergaard mid-year, you are at 87..spitting distance of the Nats high water mark you just specified.
Some other minor additions could easily have added a few more wins..Matz, for instance. DeGrom better than his ROY 2014.
If we took NYM last year 78 wins, add 5 for adding Harvey, add 4 for adding Syndergaard mid-year, you are at 87..spitting distance of the Nats high water mark you just specified.
.
Harvey 3.8 WAR
Syndergaard 1.6 WAR
Total WAR added 5.4
16 left, 3 home vs NYY, 3 vs Braves at home, 4 at Cincy, 3 at Philly, 3 home vs Nats at end.
8-8 NYM would mean Nats must win 16 straight starting Friday.
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