Plane flies hundreds of miles, crashes at a major airport undetected for hours (commercial, FAA)
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It is very worrisome that a plane can fly from Lake Erie to Nashville undetected. That plane had to pass through several air traffic control areas, all equipped with sophisticated radar systems. To top it off the plane crashes next to a runaway of a major airport, Nashville, and again is not noted.
What ever the reason it is scary and reminiscent of 9/11. What if that pilot had been a terrorist on a mission?
A thorough analysis of this flight and accident is needed. I am a bit Leary of both the FAA and the NTSB as there seems to be some political shading of what they report. Also it seems to take forever for them to deal with any particular problem. e.g. The recent Asiana airlines crash at SFO with three pilots doing who knows what.
My credentials are: 4000 flight hours over 40 plus years. Commercial, multi-engine instrument ratings.
I agree that he "flew for hours"...the plane left on Monday and was scheduled to return on Tuesday, the pilot stated to the flying club where he rented the plane that he was going to a little airport 30 NM away...but somehow ends up across an INTL boundary, and 386 miles from the original destination...with a skyhawk's 110 KTAS, that made a 17 minute flight turn into a nearly 4 hour ordeal (still within the range of a skyhawk with full tanks).
When I factor in that this pilot wasn't talking to anyone on the radio, apparently didn't have his transponder turned on since Nashville didn't "see him" on radar (minus a primary contact...that could just have easily been a flock of birds), and you combine that with his prior "criminal record" as reported, and my guess is this guy didn't WANT to be seen, and was likely partaking in some rather illegal activities...and either ran out of fuel (doubtful considering the fire) or was struggling to find whatever patch of land he needed to land on to make his pickup (or drop off - depending)...his plan didn't work out, and fate caught up with him.
I agree that he "flew for hours"...the plane left on Monday and was scheduled to return on Tuesday, the pilot stated to the flying club where he rented the plane that he was going to a little airport 30 NM away...but somehow ends up across an INTL boundary, and 386 miles from the original destination...with a skyhawk's 110 KTAS, that made a 17 minute flight turn into a nearly 4 hour ordeal (still within the range of a skyhawk with full tanks).
When I factor in that this pilot wasn't talking to anyone on the radio, apparently didn't have his transponder turned on since Nashville didn't "see him" on radar (minus a primary contact...that could just have easily been a flock of birds), and you combine that with his prior "criminal record" as reported, and my guess is this guy didn't WANT to be seen, and was likely partaking in some rather illegal activities...and either ran out of fuel (doubtful considering the fire) or was struggling to find whatever patch of land he needed to land on to make his pickup (or drop off - depending)...his plan didn't work out, and fate caught up with him.
My credentials: PILOT.
Good theory however why fly into Nashville if he was trying to "sneak in". MQY (Smyrna airport) is about 10nm south of the Nashville airport and is uncontrolled at night. Flying into that airport would not have been as risky as landing at Nashville without contacting the tower.
At any rate the whole story is odd. The fact this guy just decided to land at a major airport without contacting anyone AND the fact nobody noticed the fire. I guess it was foggy that night so its possible the fire wasn't as visible.
We had another incident last year where a guy that was a known drug smuggler crash landed his plane at an old grass strip outside of Nashville late at night. It was a Beech 18 and he never bothered to contact anyone about it. Some workers found it in the morning and reported it.
Honestly, i think Nashville was an accident, or something went wrong.
I'm not sure what the weather was like at altitude, but i know visibility was low at the surface. Possible the guy couldn't get low enough to get into whatever small field he was trying for, he didn't have an instrument rating, and who knows how experienced he was at flying instrument procedures...even still, flying a cessna to the ground in 1/4 mile or less visibility below any published minimums is STUPID at best.
If the guy was doing some "basic" navigation, he might have circled over the Nashville VORTAC with the hopes of popping out of the clouds before he made contact with the ground...if that was the case, he failed, and it's not a good idea in heavy fog...
As to the tower not noticing, I can think of numerous instances where visibility was so bad that Tower couldn't see us when we taxied off the active runway, and would request us to contact them when clear. Can also think of plenty of times I couldn't see a close parallel runway less than a 1000 feet away...a fire on the other side of the field could be all but obscured. I'll give the controllers the benefit of the doubt on that one.
Good theory however why fly into Nashville if he was trying to "sneak in". MQY (Smyrna airport) is about 10nm south of the Nashville airport and is uncontrolled at night. Flying into that airport would not have been as risky as landing at Nashville without contacting the tower.
He may have been headed for one of the smaller airports, circled the Nashville VORTAC above the fog until the engine started sputtering from fuel starvation, then just continued circling it as he glided into the ground.
I don't remember how much unusable fuel is in 172 tanks, but I'd guess there would be a gallon or two, maybe more if he was in a constant circling turn.
He may have been headed for one of the smaller airports, circled the Nashville VORTAC above the fog until the engine started sputtering from fuel starvation, then just continued circling it as he glided into the ground.
I don't remember how much unusable fuel is in 172 tanks, but I'd guess there would be a gallon or two, maybe more if he was in a constant circling turn.
It's not too hard to conceive. Anyone with a Private Pilot License can get access to an airplane. Once one passes the barriers of flying club membership, or meeting the underwriting requirements for renting from a fixed base operator, or owning an aircraft, then what they do with the airplane is up to them. There's not an all knowing aviation god that watches over every aircraft movement as some laypeople seem to think.
An aircraft can be operated a few thousand feet off the ground, without a transponder, and go undetected by ATC indefinitely. I've been out of the game for awhile, but I'm not sure the modern radars used in the enroute centers have the capability of tracking primary returns (non-transponder) anymore. While there is certain airspace that requires the use of a transponder, there is no means to enforce it until after someone is caught. It's like breaking a traffic law in your car in that respect. Or any other violation of law for that matter.
As far as international boundaries go, it wouldn't be that hard crossing over Lake Erie. If this guy had been coming from Latin American, I don't think his success rate would've been very good. There are entities outside of the ATC system that are dedicated to detecting such a situation in that region.
Seems to me like an inexperienced pilot flying into bad weather he wasn't qualified to deal with, maybe lost as well, and in his panic just trying to find a place to land. That could explain his lack of communications. So could an electrical panel failure.
Put it down short of the runway in dense fog at maybe 2:30 am, with the tower located a mile away. In the fog, without anyone calling for clearance to land, nobody noticed the crash until a normal perimeter check was done the next morning.
It's strange, but not that difficult to conceive. Weirder things have happened in broad daylight.
PP, 20 years.
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