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I know now with a new vehicle shortage used cars have gone way up in price. So whenever ICE vehicles stop being made whatever year that is will there still be people who simply want a ICE vehicle who will pay a premium on used ICE vehicles since demand will probably outstrip supply?
Location: East of Seattle since 1992, 615' Elevation, Zone 8b - originally from SF Bay Area
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Yes, and before then as the few states start to outlaw new ICE sales, the prices and demand will go up in neighboring states as people buy then bring them in. Eventually they may think to ban the registration of new ICE vehicles rather than just the sale.
In CA for example, there is a mandate that 100 percent of in-state sales of new passenger cars and trucks are zero-emission by 2035. Reading the fine print of the executive order, I found that there is no hard law with penalties, every paragraph includes the words " towards the target of 100 percent of
the fleet transitioning to zero-emission vehicles by..."
Maybe for some collector's vehicle, but if we're talking about a real transition where EVs are being purchased over ICE vehicles, then probably not overall. It's not like sales prices of used CRT tv/smonitors skyrocketed once flatscreen tvs/monitors became the dominant seller when new at stores.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 07-27-2021 at 02:39 PM..
Well don't anyone go out and buy up a bunch of ICE vehicles in anticipation, or you could wind up like the poor souls who now have a garage and/or storage unit full of older incandescent light bulbs or rubbing alcohol and toilet paper....
Well that will never happen here as I live in Texas so ICE will never be banned, as any multi-generational rich family in Texas there is a 90% chance they originally either made their money in oil or cattle and often both, also Texas is so spread out(long stretches of nothing between huge spread out metro area's) the electric cars would be too much of a hassle for most people.
it may actually make used cars cheaper here as our used car market get's flooded with cars from other states.
Location: East of Seattle since 1992, 615' Elevation, Zone 8b - originally from SF Bay Area
44,585 posts, read 81,225,683 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OyCrumbler
Maybe for some collector's vehicle, but if we're talking about a real transition where EVs are being purchased over ICE vehicles, then probably not overall. It's not like sales prices of used CRT tv/smonitors skyrocketed once flatscreen tvs/monitors became the dominant seller when new at stores.
That's not a really appropriate comparison, because there was nothing at all better about the old heavy, unreliable, poor quality picture CRT TVs. In addition, the broadcasts were changing to digital.
In the case of ICE vs EV the ICE still has a huge advantage in cost, range, tow/haul capacity and sound.
Yes, and before then as the few states start to outlaw new ICE sales, the prices and demand will go up in neighboring states as people buy then bring them in. Eventually they may think to ban the registration of new ICE vehicles rather than just the sale.
In CA for example, there is a mandate that 100 percent of in-state sales of new passenger cars and trucks are zero-emission by 2035. Reading the fine print of the executive order, I found that there is no hard law with penalties, every paragraph includes the words " towards the target of 100 percent of
the fleet transitioning to zero-emission vehicles by..."
No, the Calif mandate is not a law or even a mandate. It's an executive order that directs the Air Resources Board to "develop and propose" regulations towards a statewide "goal" of 100% of emissions-free vehicles. There's wiggle room in there. I predict farmers, ranchers and construction companies that need large diesel vehicles will get an exemption.
And ICE is not prohibited. If somebody can invent a scrubber so ICE is zero CO2 out the tailpipe then those would be allowed (under the regulations that haven't been written yet).
I think the used market in 2035 will be: used ICE sedans, crossovers, small SUVs will be dirt cheap. EVs will be mainstreamed by then, more reliable, cheaper to buy new, cheaper to operate and maintain. Used large pickups for hauling and trailering (as so many have pointed out here) will command good prices. I think the "hotness" of the market will depend on market segment and location.
I think the used market in 2035 will be: used ICE sedans, crossovers, small SUVs will be dirt cheap. EVs will be mainstreamed by then, more reliable, cheaper to buy new, cheaper to operate and maintain. Used large pickups for hauling and trailering (as so many have pointed out here) will command good prices. I think the "hotness" of the market will depend on market segment and location.
Yep. 15 yeas from now, there are going to be a bunch of neck-snapping performance EVs and ultra-smooth luxury cars that require next to no maintenance and last far longer than a conventional internal combustion car. ICE will be the cast-off beaters poor people buy.
I think that in 15 years, watt-hours per pound is going to be very different from now. Same for charging time. You'll be able to tow the boat or trailer hundreds of miles between charges and cars will charge quickly. Welcome to Moore's Law.
Well that will never happen here as I live in Texas so ICE will never be banned, as any multi-generational rich family in Texas there is a 90% chance they originally either made their money in oil or cattle and often both, also Texas is so spread out(long stretches of nothing between huge spread out metro area's) the electric cars would be too much of a hassle for most people.
it may actually make used cars cheaper here as our used car market get's flooded with cars from other states.
Never say never - who knows what the future tech will bring (and govt will do). They are already testing charging as you drive - so may be no need to charge with an EV between major cities.
That's not a really appropriate comparison, because there was nothing at all better about the old heavy, unreliable, poor quality picture CRT TVs. In addition, the broadcasts were changing to digital.
In the case of ICE vs EV the ICE still has a huge advantage in cost, range, tow/haul capacity and sound.
I think it's appropriate because when flat monitors first came out to market, there were actually many important things that made CRT monitors better than flat monitors. For one, CRTs were initially much, muuch cheaper for the size and resolution. Another thing was that oftentimes there were a combination of either limited viewing angles, bad color depth, not very good true black, and limited brightness. After all, the modern flatscreen was actually on the market for a while before technology got to a point where they rapidly improved and then took significant market share from CRTs.
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