High-speed train could one day connect San Antonio to Austin (Houston: to buy, salaries)

[scm53]

Originally Posted by hoffdano

How about this back of the envelope math:

5000 round trips per weekday
25,000 weekday round trips per week
2,500 round trips per weekend
27,500 round trips total per week
1,430,000 round trips per year
$50 round trip ticket price
$35,750,000 annual revenue from ticket sales
$7.2B cost to build the line

201 years to recover the cost of construction

Doesn't include the ongoing cost of operations (somehow I think it will cost many $millions per year to operate). I could see payroll alone between $50M-$100M per year.

A Japanese Shinkansen train typically seats about 800 passengers. To carry 5000 passengers a day, they would need to run 6.25 trains a day.

The French know more about operating HSR than any railway system in the world. Their 2009 proposal to build a 311 mile system from FW to DFW to Dallas to Austin to SA was at $13.8B - all in, including rolling stock. They proposed to run single construct train sets at first - 47/day in each direction, capacity 500. Some would be express FW - Austin, w/ no stops at Waco or Killeen. Others would stop at all, FW - SA. They state they can cover operating costs from day one - no operating subsidies. As ridership grew, in the out years, they could pay off 37% of the original capital costs.

If you have any interest in this, the SNCF proposal I linked to above is fascinating reading - how they calculated the ridership forecast, etc. I do know, that after they started the Paris - Lyon service, they destroyed the air service between the two cities. Everyone took the train. Then did the same thing Paris - Brussels.

[verybadgnome]

Originally Posted by hoffdano

How about this back of the envelope math:

5000 round trips per weekday
25,000 weekday round trips per week
2,500 round trips per weekend
27,500 round trips total per week
1,430,000 round trips per year
$50 round trip ticket price
$35,750,000 annual revenue from ticket sales
$7.2B cost to build the line

201 years to recover the cost of construction

Doesn't include the ongoing cost of operations (somehow I think it will cost many $millions per year to operate). I could see payroll alone between $50M-$100M per year.

A Japanese Shinkansen train typically seats about 800 passengers. To carry 5000 passengers a day, they would need to run 6.25 trains a day.

So many costs besides the ones you mentioned. Try this!:

"Already, IH 35 through the Austin-San Antonio Corridor is the deadliest and most congested highway in America, with over 100 fatalities a year just in the 110 miles between Georgetown and San Antonio."

.......compared to:

"During the Shinkansen's 45-year, nearly 7 billion-passenger history, there have been no passenger fatalities due to derailments or collisions"

[hoffdano]

Originally Posted by verybadgnome

So many costs besides the ones you mentioned. Try this!:

"Already, IH 35 through the Austin-San Antonio Corridor is the deadliest and most congested highway in America, with over 100 fatalities a year just in the 110 miles between Georgetown and San Antonio."

.......compared to:

"During the Shinkansen's 45-year, nearly 7 billion-passenger history, there have been no passenger fatalities due to derailments or collisions"

For reference, I have ridden the Shinkansen, the TGV, and the Acela Express. The first two are terrific systems; none of them are inexpensive by any means to ride.

But I don't believe any HSR system in the US can come remotely close to paying for itself in 20 years.

In Texas, Austin to SA is not the best choice to start with. Dallas-Houston makes far more sense.

[DarkWolf]

Originally Posted by hoffdano

For reference, I have ridden the Shinkansen, the TGV, and the Acela Express. The first two are terrific systems; none of them are inexpensive by any means to ride.

But I don't believe any HSR system in the US can come remotely close to paying for itself in 20 years.

In Texas, Austin to SA is not the best choice to start with. Dallas-Houston makes far more sense.

They expected the Midwestern system and Northeastern system to pay off within 10 years....

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by scm53

The French know more about operating HSR than any railway system in the world. Their 2009 proposal to build a 311 mile system from FW to DFW to Dallas to Austin to SA was at $13.8B - all in, including rolling stock.

French interested in Texas high-speed rail | Transportation Blog

states 13.8B construction costs. Not including rolling stock. Not including right of way acquisition (probably the majority of the cost, especially acquiring urban land in Houstin, DFW, Austin, San Antonio where downtown blocks are valued at 10M or more each).

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by Nexis4Jersey

They expected the Midwestern system and Northeastern system to pay off within 10 years....

Do you have a source/link for that?

Breaking: SNCF Proposes Development of High-Speed Rail in Midwest, Texas, Florida, and California Corridors « The Transport Politic

Phrases it differently, using the term "Benefits from reduced car and air travel", which I interpret to mean something different from actually paying off bonds.

[scm53]

Originally Posted by Novacek

French interested in Texas high-speed rail | Transportation Blog

states 13.8B construction costs. Not including rolling stock. Not including right of way acquisition (probably the majority of the cost, especially acquiring urban land in Houstin, DFW, Austin, San Antonio where downtown blocks are valued at 10M or more each).

You need to read the response. The $13.8B figure DOES include rolling stock ($1.1B), DOES include ROW acquisition. They have no intention of acquiring ROW in urban areas. Just as they do in France, at some point outside of the metro area, the trains will switch over to the ordinary rails for the last few miles to the stations.

[Austin97]

Originally Posted by Nexis4Jersey

They expected the Midwestern system and Northeastern system to pay off within 10 years....

I will bet you any amount of money that this doesnt happen.

[DarkWolf]

Originally Posted by Austin97

I will bet you any amount of money that this doesnt happen.

Its already underway and we have could connecting systems....Rail is embraced in both regions...and integrated into the economy.

[scm53]

DFW - Houston is on the table WITHOUT a dime of public money.

Private Firm Planning Bullet Trains in Texas by 2020 — Transportation | The Texas Tribune