Bad news on the housing and job fronts for Austin/Central Texas (Hutto: sales, real estate)

[orbius]

Austin foreclosures up from '09, steady since May - Austin Business Journal

Year on Year foreclosures in Austin are up 98%, a huge number. From May to June the numbers are up a more modest 6% but its obvious Austin isnt out of the woods yet in terms of real estate. Hutto and Manor are really hurting badly with 1 out of 58 homes in serious arrears or in foreclosure. The entire state of Texas' real estate picture is worsening as now 1 in 148 homes is either in serious arrears or in foreclosure.

Jobs picture for Central Texas is also bad unfortunately. The area is shedding high paying education, government, and health jobs and adding 'leisure and hospitality' jobs. Where the stimulus money is going is anyones guess because its obviously not going to keep government workers in their jobs.

The article says it increased 5 percentage points month to month but I assume it must mean .5 percentage points from 6.9 to 7.4% for Central Texas. Still either way a bit concerning.

Cental Texas jobless rate rises to 7.4% - Austin Business Journal

[JayBrown80]

Originally Posted by orbius

Austin foreclosures up from '09, steady since May - Austin Business Journal

Year on Year foreclosures in Austin are up 98%, a huge number. From May to June the numbers are up a more modest 6% but its obvious Austin isnt out of the woods yet in terms of real estate. Hutto and Manor are really hurting badly with 1 out of 58 homes in serious arrears or in foreclosure. The entire state of Texas' real estate picture is worsening as now 1 in 148 homes is either in serious arrears or in foreclosure.

Jobs picture for Central Texas is also bad unfortunately. The area is shedding high paying education, government, and health jobs and adding 'leisure and hospitality' jobs. Where the stimulus money is going is anyones guess because its obviously not going to keep government workers in their jobs.

The article says it increased 5 percentage points month to month but I assume it must mean .5 percentage points from 6.9 to 7.4% for Central Texas. Still either way a bit concerning.

Cental Texas jobless rate rises to 7.4% - Austin Business Journal

Moderator cut: off topic The economy, and foreclosures, are bad ALL OVER THE WORLD. Austin is doing much better than most places.

Moderator cut: off topic

[HappyTexan]

Just tighten the belt, stay liquid and grit your teeth and make due with what we have.
Recall that we were late to the game so maybe we have yet to hit our peak.
More people coming than jobs available and more people trying to maintain two homes puts a strain on even healthy economies.

It is what it is. I am thankful though that I am in Texas to weather out this financial storm and have been prepared to deal with deflation, tight credit and a tight job market.

[trovena]

Actually foreclosures are up 98% vs the same month last year. That should be the title since most real estate stats are annualized. Of course the Austin real estate cheerleaders would have to the the ABJ to spin it. This great news for buyers! I don't understand the bias towards sellers. Low prices are only bad for one party.

[eileenkeeney]

Well I have been watching a particular market (I get the emails for each update). While it is a small market, most of the activity is
- price reduced
- status change (usually one that was sale pending going back on the market)
- houses just pulled (and I notice this when I see it no longer there, and not listed as pending).

I knew it was not the best time to buy, but I needed a place to live, and it was the right house.

Low prices are bad for multiple parties, sellers and Realtors.
High prices are only bad for one party, buyers.

Personally I would LOVE it if house prices were steady, rising only based on inflation.
That would likely keep sales steady, and more to those who want to own the property than to investors who only hope to turn it for profit. It would make for a much healthier housing market.

[XLadylawX]

Moderator cut: referenced deleted post


Things are hard all over; but here in Austin, things are better than just about anywhere else in the Country. (For me that means, the World.) You should try to focus on what good is still going on here and continue to count yourself lucky that you live in such a fabulous City.

[trovena]

Originally Posted by eileenkeeney

Well I have been watching a particular market (I get the emails for each update). While it is a small market, most of the activity is
- price reduced
- status change (usually one that was sale pending going back on the market)
- houses just pulled (and I notice this when I see it no longer there, and not listed as pending).

I knew it was not the best time to buy, but I needed a place to live, and it was the right house.

Low prices are bad for multiple parties, sellers and Realtors.
High prices are only bad for one party, buyers.

Personally I would LOVE it if house prices were steady, rising only based on inflation.
That would likely keep sales steady, and more to those who want to own the property than to investors who only hope to turn it for profit. It would make for a much healthier housing market.

Low prices aren't really bad for realtors. No transactions are bad for realtors. They need the market to "clear" because they get paid when buyers and sellers agree and transact.

[hoffdano]

Moderator cut: referenced deleted post text

I always like to see data.

But there is an interesting quote from the article:

"Even with the increasing figures, overall Austin still ranks low among metro areas with the highest number of foreclosures in June, checking in at No. 118 of the 203 areas that RealtyTrac monitors. Austin came in at No. 120 in May and No. 115 in April."

[orbius]

I agree the numbers for the rest of the country are really concerning and its a good thing Austin is doing better. 1 in 75 houses in foreclosure during a 6 month period for the country as a whole. While Austin is about 1 in 145, much better but still up 42% year on year.

Moderator cut: referenced deleted text I wish you felt better about Austin and the future.

Things are hard all over; but here in Austin, things are better than just about anywhere else in the Country. (For me that means, the World.) Moderator cut: off topic

Moderator cut: referenced other member

[austin-steve]

From the article:

One in every 655 houses foreclosed or was in danger of foreclosing in June, a 98 percent increase from the same month in 2009.

So, let's ask what this "98%" increase means. Doesn't seem that bad to me, as hoffdano pointed out with a quote from the actual article.

Before the 98% increase, how many homes out of 655 were in danger of foreclosing? Would it be 0.5050? (1/1.98) So, if you live in a 655 home subdivision, there is one foreclosed home? And a month ago there was only a half a foreclosure, or a foreclosure every two months instead of one month?

Is that's the bad news we're talking about here?