Gwinnett Daily Post: 2016 Presidential election could shape the role of a changing Gwinnett County in future elections (Atlanta: houses)

[Born 2 Roll]

Because of its key population in heavily-developed Northeast Metro Atlanta along the I-85 Northeast corridor and because of its large and fast-growing population of nearly 900,000 people, Gwinnett County is one of the most politically crucial counties in the state of Georgia.

For the last 32 years (since the 1984 election cycle), Gwinnett's political scene has been completely dominated by the Republican Party. But the county's rapidly changing demographic makeup (racial and ethnic minorities currently make up about 60% of Gwinnett's population) signals that the Democratic Party (which has long been in a position of super-minority status in the traditionally conservative suburban county) may potentially become much more competitive (if not dominant) in Gwinnett's political scene in the not-too-distant future as the county's minority population continues to explode and become more statistically dominant.

The evolution of Gwinnett County towards continued increasing minority statistical dominance and growing Democratic Party competitiveness is notable because Gwinnett County has been critical to the competitiveness and dominance of the Republican Party in Georgia over the last 30 years (...the Republican Party rose to power in a fast-growing outer-suburban Gwinnett in 1984 and rose to power in Georgia in 2002 with the election of Sonny Perdue as Georgia's first Republican governor since Reconstruction).

The rise of the Democratic Party in a longtime Republican stronghold such as Gwinnett would likely signal some major changes ahead for Georgia's currently overwhelmingly Republican-dominated statewide political scene.

The Gwinnett Daily Post newspaper touches on how the ongoing demographic changes in Gwinnett could potentially make Democrats much more competitive in the longtime Republican-dominated county in years ahead...

From the Gwinnett Daily Post article "Presidential election could shape Gwinnett’s role in future elections":

Gwinnett County will one day be a political battleground, but when that happens could be shaped by this year’s presidential race.

One expert in Georgia politics thinks the way the winds blow Gwinnett County in this year’s presidential election could even set the table for how the two major political parties view the county in Georgia’s 2018 gubernatorial race.

If the eventual Democratic party nominee can keep the election close, or even win the county, in November, University of Georgia professor Charles Bullock said Gwinnett would likely be a key battleground two years from now.

That’s because the county is experiencing a slow political shift from Republican red to Democratic blue. It’s effectively a purple county and, with about half-a-million registered voters already located in Gwinnett, it’s a prize to be won for both sides.

“This probably won’t be the year (that a Democrat wins Gwinnett), but if it’s close, then that would be a step toward 2018 and probably mean both parties will spend a great deal of time and energy in the county two years from now,” Bullock said.

A purple — or even Democratic — Gwinnett could have statewide implications particularly in statewide races, such as governor or U.S. senator. It could even help make it possible for a Democrat to win the governor’s office in the not-too-distant future.

There’s a key reason why the political affiliation of the next governor will be important: Redistricting of Georgia’s congressional and state legislative seats will take place during that governor’s term. During the last round of redistricting in 2011, Republicans controlled the governor’s mansion and both houses of the General Assembly.

“Winning the governor’s race in 2018 would give Democrats a seat at the table during redistricting,” Bullock said.

At the beginning of the 21st century, Republicans running for president or a statewide office regularly got more than 60 percent of the votes cast in Gwinnett during a general election. During the last few election cycles, however, Republican support has been around 54 percent.

[ATLTJL]

This is probably right, which is why I get so frustrated when people say things like, "those conservatives in Gwinnett and Cobb will never vote in MARTA!"

For anyone paying attention, Gwinnett has changed a lot in the past 10-20 years. The only thing keeping it conservative these days is its size, because Gwinnett still has places like Grayson, Loganville and Dacula.