Johns Creek Homes and Real Estate (Atlanta, Alpharetta: 2015, bankruptcy, middle schools)

[wilful]

Originally Posted by mrpanda

Wilful,
Though i concentrate on Johns Creek, I look at real estate through a lens of school clusters. Don't get me wrong, North Gwinnett HS is excellent school cluster in Gwinnett Suwanee, but no will argue that the 3 High Schools in Johns Creek, Lambert, S. Forsyth HS ranks higher than N. Gwinnett.

When I speak of Johns Creek, I think about about the old and the new: The old Johns Creek ( Chattoohoochee, JCHS, and Northview ) and the new Johns Creek (Lambert & S. Forsyth): I know this sounds like nonsense as the old Johns Creek is Fulton County and the new Johns Creek is Forsyth, but i see them as one as similar demographics are attracted to buying here.

As an investor myself, I have also looked in the possibility in N. Gwinnett, but when i ran the numbers the cash on cash return is not nearly as good as Forsyth County. Today, I concentrate my investment search in Lambert. When i can't afford Lambert, I will search in S. Forsyth HS, if i can't afford to buy in S. Forsyth, I will continue my search in W. Forsyth. Recently S. Fosyth HS is now ranked #9, passing Lambert at #10. W. Forsyth HS is ranked #19, however the median home price in Lambert is still much higher than that of S. Forsyth HS.

Townsend Creek is a good single family community where the median home price is $210,000. There are a lot of transaction in this subdivision.

If you were to ask me about my opinion about future in the next 7 years..

John Creek + Lambert & S. Forsyth HS real estate will certainly sell at premium over Alpharetta, Gwinnett Suwanee & Duluth, & W. Forsyth. If we have a real estate crash like we had in 2006 - 2011, Johns Creek Real Estate will not decline as nearly as the other areas.

mrpanda - Thanks for your thoughts on the NG cluster and think you are on target. Do you have an opinion on the Shakerag Farms subdivision in S. Forsyth? Wife and I are looking at this sub for perhaps a future move.

[mrpanda]

Wilful, you make me smile as you looking in the right areas. I LOVE Shakerag Farms at this subdivsion is one my top target areas as the location is right on the S. Forsyth / Johns Creek border. This subdivision is located right next to St Marlo and across the street from Blackstone. BTW.. I love what they did to the entrance of Blackstone with the mini waterfall.

I've been trying to aggressively pick up a 4/2.5 rental at Shakerag Farms but they are a extremely hard to find. Most of the community is a 3/2.5 SFRs. If you can pick up one these 4 bed/ 2.5 babies up for under $200k in good condition with minimum rehab, you've done very well. I've even sent out personal letters to out-of-state owners in Shakerag Farms.

Wilful, you are looking in the right area. Continue your search there.

Originally Posted by wilful

mrpanda - Thanks for your thoughts on the NG cluster and think you are on targeet. Do you have an opinion on the Shakerag Farms subdivision in S. Forsyth? Wife and I are looking at his sub for perhaps a future move.

[wilful]

Originally Posted by mrpanda

Wilful, you make me smile as you looking in the right areas. I LOVE Shakerag Farms at this subdivsion is one my top target areas as the location is right on the S. Forsyth / Johns Creek border. This subdivision is located right next to St Marlo and across the street from Blackstone. BTW.. I love what they did to the entrance of Blackstone with the mini waterfall.

I've been trying to aggressively pick up a 4/2.5 rental at Shakerag Farms but they are a extremely hard to find. Most of the community is a 3/2.5 SFRs. If you can pick up one these 4 bed/ 2.5 babies up for under $200k in good condition with minimum rehab, you've done very well. I've even sent out personal letters to out-of-state owners in Shakerag Farms.

Wilful, you are looking in the right area. Continue your search there.

Thanks for the input but was really asking whether you think this is a good pace to live and not just invest? We are empty nesters in 3000 sf plus looking for something in the 1800-2100 range with at least 3br's. Also appealing is the low tax rate for folks over 65. Any additional thoughts.

[mrpanda]

Wilful,

Shakerag Farms is a cute subdivision as is great place to live and raise a young family. The majority of the residents are young families in the their 30s and 40s. This single family community was built between 2003 - 2005 where homes were sold in the low $200ks and is zoned for Lambert HS. About 85% of the homes are 3bed rooms/2.5 bath and 15% are 4 bedroom / 2.5 bath built on lots between 6000 - 10000 sq/ft and square footages of the homes are exactly 1800 for their 3 bed / 2.5 bath plans and 2100 sq ft for their 4 bed / 2.5 bath plans.

The attraction of Shakerag Farms is the lowest entry point into the Lambert School district. I remember back in 2011, 4 bedrooms were closing as low as $170k. Today, they are extremely hard to find under $200k. Taxes are also appealing for seniors as they are exempt from paying for school tax that makes the property taxes even less than 0.9% of the home value. Hope this information helps.

In 2013, it appears to me that $200k is now becoming the new firm baseline for the entry into Lambert HS. Riverbrooke is a another Lambert community that sold for under $200k early last year. The price to build the smallest plan in Riverbrooke is now starting in the $230k.

MrPanda

Originally Posted by wilful

Thanks for the input but was really asking whether you think this is a good pace to live and not just invest? We are empty nesters in 3000 sf plus looking for something in the 1800-2100 range with at least 3br's. Also appealing is the low tax rate for folks over 65. Any additional thoughts.

[mrpanda]

Is it just me, or am I noticing huge luxury apartment complexes being built right near Johns Creek Technology Park. I see a new senior apartment, Regency and Oaks all built in the last 12 months. This a lot of apartments at once for Northview HS.

Oaks three bedroom with a sunroom is priced at $1600/month. Regency has their three bed room at $2000/month. These are some high end apartments coming into the neighborhood.

Link:
Oaks at Johns Creek | Beautiful Johns Creek Apartments

Link:
The Regency at Johns Creek Walk

[mrpanda]

Irvine California median home price from 1994 - 2006 - Back to the Future.

1994 - $228,529
1995 - $229,595
1996 - $246,865
1997 - $245,427
1998 - $263,173
1999 - $278,148
2000 - $308,089
2001 - $334,741
2002 - $379,852
2003 - $461,888
2004 - $609,397
2005 - $635,675
2006 - $722,928

I am making a bold prediction that the median home price in the Johns Creek area will atleast see a 200% increase from its 2011 prices within 7-8 years.

Seven Oaks is a subdivision in Johns Creek zoned for Northview HS.

Here is a transaction i want to show you on 5730 Sunset Maple, Johns Creek, GA 30005

04/24/1997 - sold for $203,000 Owners: Mr. Sat sold to Buyers: Mr & Mrs. Walters
03/09/2007 - sold for $475,000 Owners: Mr & Mrs. Walters sold to Buyers: Mr & Mrs. K

Mr & Mrs. Walters made 234% on this deal for holding their property for 10 years. Very impressive!

[ericsonga]

And it was last listed for sale last July for $359,900....and it didn't sell.

5730 Sunset Maple Dr, Johns Creek, GA 30005 - Zillow

[mrpanda]

Ericsonga,
My point is that there is a precedence when prices have doubled in the Johns Creek area from 1997 - 2007. Unfortunately the current owners of 5730 Sunset Maple Dr would be selling at a loss if they were to sell today as they bought at the peak of the market for $475k in 2007. If they were to hold the property until 2020, I believe that this home will trade in the high $600ks.

Originally Posted by ericsonga

And it was last listed for sale last July for $359,900....and it didn't sell.

5730 Sunset Maple Dr, Johns Creek, GA 30005 - Zillow

[ericsonga]

Originally Posted by mrpanda

Ericsonga,
My point is that there is a precedence when prices have doubled in the Johns Creek area from 1997 - 2007. Unfortunately the current owners of 5730 Sunset Maple Dr would be selling at a loss if they were to sell today as they bought at the peak of the market for $475k in 2007. If they were to hold the property until 2020, I believe that this home will trade in the high $600ks.

Mr. Panda,

My point is that it is no longer 2007. This is 2012 and we have to live in the current real estate market that we are in. I am not discounting the desirability of Johns Creek and Forsyth County. However, let's not over inflate the current market with the wishes and dreams of 2007.

[mrpanda]

Ericsonga,

We are actually in 2013 now and i am not being over optimistic and i am certainly not dreaming. The median home price here will surely exceed that of 2007. I am more optimistic about Johns Creek's new 2012 demographics than I am about 2007. A lot has changed in these short 5 years.

Johns Creek Home Prices and Home Values in GA - Zillow Local Info - Johns Creek Year over year - 8.6%

30097 Home Prices and Home Values - Zillow Local Info - zip code 30097 Year over year - 8.2%