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Now that Atlanta itself is adding many more people.....how do you think Atlanta would fare if it had a million people within the city limits? Would it be better for Atlanta as far as urbanization or transit ( more people, more taxes, more money ) or would this be a problem for the infrastructure?
I myself have always wished Atlanta to br more street /pedestrian friendly and I guess more "urban " in the North east term of the word. Could Atlanta handle a million plus?
Atlanta certainly has plenty of room for a million people. It would still only be moderately dense. The question I'd have is who are these people? Are they working and contributing to the city?
I don't think it would happen unless Atlanta annexed parts of central DeKalb County (Druid Hills, Briarcliff, North Druid Hills, North Decatur, Northlake). While there could be room for another 450,000 in the city limits, that kind of density is going to be hard to get if you compare market demand for specific locations within the city. It would be different if the growth was spread out evenly all over the city - but it seems like much of the growth is occurring in Buckhead, Midtown, the East Side, and West Midtown. But those areas can only handle so much density without encroaching on single-family neighborhoods like Ansley Park. I think that would be an obstacle to reaching 1 million. The only other options would be to mandate even growth across the city or annex areas just outside the city limits that are densifying - i.e. central DeKalb. Otherwise I see the growth slowing around 700,000.
It definitely can happen. Atlanta proper has the best spaces to turn into true urban residential neighborhoods (instead of calling streetcar suburbs as urban). People that want true urban living want close access to the CBDs and close access to transit. Transit plans are in progress and it is also cheaper to build in a small area.
The other thing I would like to note. If the city doubles its population, then they will also greatly expanded the tax base and it will not be as hard to pay for infrastructure reinvestment, which is what the city has had trouble with in the past. The other thing is there is a large amount of old brown fields that have been left behind or under-utlized. Most industrial development has moved to the outskirts of the city. Warehouses are locating far out of town in exurban counties. Also, Fulton Industrial has become a key location for industrial uses, since it has a good connection to the train tracks in the Northwest corridor that bypasses the congested Howell Mill Junction. (Note: the northwest corridor has far more freight train traffic than any other direction)
The real question... is not If, but When. Will it take 30 years? 50 years? 100 years?
I don't think it would happen unless Atlanta annexed parts of central DeKalb County (Druid Hills, Briarcliff, North Druid Hills, North Decatur, Northlake). While there could be room for another 450,000 in the city limits, that kind of density is going to be hard to get if you compare market demand for specific locations within the city. It would be different if the growth was spread out evenly all over the city - but it seems like much of the growth is occurring in Buckhead, Midtown, the East Side, and West Midtown. But those areas can only handle so much density without encroaching on single-family neighborhoods like Ansley Park. I think that would be an obstacle to reaching 1 million. The only other options would be to mandate even growth across the city or annex areas just outside the city limits that are densifying - i.e. central DeKalb. Otherwise I see the growth slowing around 700,000.
I agree with you that the only way for that signigicant an increase in population to occur is for there to be encroachment of existing single family neighborhoods with large lots (typically greater than one acre).
To get specific, if you look at the large mass of land that is Buckhead, that is the neighborhoods north of the Brookwood interchange and west of Peachtree and it will be impossible to buy out some homes and build higher density - the remaining homeowners will raise holy terror to keep up their property values and they certainly don't want a bunch of high density apartments down the street. You have to remember that in Metro Atlanta (and especially its suburbs) zoning is everything.
The only other options for high density would be the post industrial -warehouse areas like along Marietta Blvd. in NW Atlanta where there is underused land at reasonable prices or to go into the vast land area that is South East Atlanta all the way down to the Clayton County line. This South East area is not very convenient and not very attractive at this time - There is a Federal Penitentiary in the middle of it. While some could make an argument for a spill over effect from the gentrification of Grant Park, it is hard to see that as there are still quite a number of high density low income apartments in between that would need to be redeveloped before you will see any development wave headed towards far South East Atlanta.
The other options you mentioned of having the City of Atlanta annex portions of Central Dekalb County are extremely unlikely. The residents of those areas will not willingly choose to pay higher taxes and give up the better public shools they now have in Druid Hills and Lakeside High Schools to be in the same district as Grady High School.
The major land annexation opportunity for the City of Atlanta actually lies along its Southwest border - including Cascade Rd. and the Fulton Industrial Blvd. corridor and all of the undeveloped land going out to the Chattahoochee. This area is the last unincorporated area left in Fulton county and the City of Atlanta has made numerous efforts to annex it. In fact, there was a local attempt for this area (north of Chattahoochee Hills) to form its own municipality. However, they have decided to remain as they are - an unincorporated area. If they were to be annexed, this would have a significant impact on the politics of the City of Atlanta as the population of this area is about 100% black and the remaining land when it is developed will proabably be as well. For those who have been hoping for a post racial city this may not be a welcomed turn of events. For example, if this area were to have been part of the City, the last mayoral race would not have been close.
In conclusion, it is hard to see how the City of Atlanta will grow to a population of one million people given the fact that it is in a mature metro area in which most of the areas on its borders are already developed in other jurisdictions.
It's plausible but you would have to mow down all those single family homes throughout the city and replace them with rowhouses and large condo towers & apartment blocks. Take Philly for instance which has about the same land area (135 sq. miles) as Atlanta (131 sq. miles).
Philly has 1,547,000 people for a average density of 11,460 people per sq. mile while Atlanta has 538,000 people for a average density of 4,106 people per sq. mile.
Although Philly has more people, the way Atlanta is set up is for low sprawl density with many single family homes. There are parts of your city which sometimes feels like your already in the suburbs. Why would people want to live in the city anyways when you have no known natural barriers to impede suburban growth? Unless radical zoning is implemented to allow massive density, the way Atlanta is now I just don't see it having a million residents ever.
I agree with you that the only way for that signigicant an increase in population to occur is for there to be encroachment of existing single family neighborhoods with large lots (typically greater than one acre).
To get specific, if you look at the large mass of land that is Buckhead, that is the neighborhoods north of the Brookwood interchange and west of Peachtree and it will be impossible to buy out some homes and build higher density - the remaining homeowners will raise holy terror to keep up their property values and they certainly don't want a bunch of high density apartments down the street. You have to remember that in Metro Atlanta (and especially its suburbs) zoning is everything.
The only other options for high density would be the post industrial -warehouse areas like along Marietta Blvd. in NW Atlanta where there is underused land at reasonable prices or to go into the vast land area that is South East Atlanta all the way down to the Clayton County line. This South East area is not very convenient and not very attractive at this time - There is a Federal Penitentiary in the middle of it. While some could make an argument for a spill over effect from the gentrification of Grant Park, it is hard to see that as there are still quite a number of high density low income apartments in between that would need to be redeveloped before you will see any development wave headed towards far South East Atlanta.
The other options you mentioned of having the City of Atlanta annex portions of Central Dekalb County are extremely unlikely. The residents of those areas will not willingly choose to pay higher taxes and give up the better public shools they now have in Druid Hills and Lakeside High Schools to be in the same district as Grady High School.
The major land annexation opportunity for the City of Atlanta actually lies along its Southwest border - including Cascade Rd. and the Fulton Industrial Blvd. corridor and all of the undeveloped land going out to the Chattahoochee. This area is the last unincorporated area left in Fulton county and the City of Atlanta has made numerous efforts to annex it. In fact, there was a local attempt for this area (north of Chattahoochee Hills) to form its own municipality. However, they have decided to remain as they are - an unincorporated area. If they were to be annexed, this would have a significant impact on the politics of the City of Atlanta as the population of this area is about 100% black and the remaining land when it is developed will proabably be as well. For those who have been hoping for a post racial city this may not be a welcomed turn of events. For example, if this area were to have been part of the City, the last mayoral race would not have been close.
In conclusion, it is hard to see how the City of Atlanta will grow to a population of one million people given the fact that it is in a mature metro area in which most of the areas on its borders are already developed in other jurisdictions.
You should consider Google satellite mapping Atlanta. Look at all the infill housing that is building along the beltline, inside the beltline, and note the many places nearby that haven't been redeveloped yet
Even on the the south side a few single family home lots are already being replaced by 4-10 story tall urban condo developments.
Yes, you are right that will probably not happen directly in areas where the housing costs $2+ million, but there are lots of areas of Atlanta beyond that. (I also wouldnt characterize alot of the single family lots as a whole acre. There are some, but most are closer to 1/3 acre)
Look at the following as examples
1)Richardson st and central ave (also note the surrounding blocks only involve buying out a few single family homes or an old-dated low-density apartment complex)
2)McDaniel St & Fulton St
3) Howell Mill Rd and 14th st.
4) 10th st and Northside dr
5) Ralph McGill blvd & fortune st.
6) Dekalb Ave & Cornelia st
7) I also think we need to try to encourage developments like the Lindbergh Marta Station area. It will take longer since other areas are less desirable, but over 40 years it can still happen.
8) Irwin St. and Jackson st.
9) Walker St & Chapel St.
10) Thirkeld Ave & Moury Ave
(And there are many other examples of these. This is just a handful I zoomed into within a few minutes time)
Notice that in each of these cases that there is a light and day difference at how many housing units can fit into one block.
Anyways... these locations have helped Atlanta start to grow for the first time in years. What I can't help but to notice is there is plenty more room for these types of developments over tons of Brownfield spaces and sparsely populated single family home neighborhoods. It is also important to note that many of these developments occured in areas where single family homes once stood. They are not all brownfield developments. They also occur in areas that are traditionally considered less desirable.
Also, if the beltline is successfully built after the 25 year- TAD, I am willing to bet it will profoundly change Atlanta and make most of the areas "inside the beltline" much more desirable than they are now.
Now if you only focus on an area near the Governor's management and discount South Atlanta, I can see where you feel that way, but when I look at the aerial images and the new development that has happened in the last 5 years I can't agree that notion.
I agree with you that the only way for that signigicant an increase in population to occur is for there to be encroachment of existing single family neighborhoods with large lots (typically greater than one acre).
To get specific, if you look at the large mass of land that is Buckhead, that is the neighborhoods north of the Brookwood interchange and west of Peachtree and it will be impossible to buy out some homes and build higher density - the remaining homeowners will raise holy terror to keep up their property values and they certainly don't want a bunch of high density apartments down the street. You have to remember that in Metro Atlanta (and especially its suburbs) zoning is everything.
The only other options for high density would be the post industrial -warehouse areas like along Marietta Blvd. in NW Atlanta where there is underused land at reasonable prices or to go into the vast land area that is South East Atlanta all the way down to the Clayton County line. This South East area is not very convenient and not very attractive at this time - There is a Federal Penitentiary in the middle of it. While some could make an argument for a spill over effect from the gentrification of Grant Park, it is hard to see that as there are still quite a number of high density low income apartments in between that would need to be redeveloped before you will see any development wave headed towards far South East Atlanta.
The other options you mentioned of having the City of Atlanta annex portions of Central Dekalb County are extremely unlikely. The residents of those areas will not willingly choose to pay higher taxes and give up the better public shools they now have in Druid Hills and Lakeside High Schools to be in the same district as Grady High School.
The major land annexation opportunity for the City of Atlanta actually lies along its Southwest border - including Cascade Rd. and the Fulton Industrial Blvd. corridor and all of the undeveloped land going out to the Chattahoochee. This area is the last unincorporated area left in Fulton county and the City of Atlanta has made numerous efforts to annex it. In fact, there was a local attempt for this area (north of Chattahoochee Hills) to form its own municipality. However, they have decided to remain as they are - an unincorporated area. If they were to be annexed, this would have a significant impact on the politics of the City of Atlanta as the population of this area is about 100% black and the remaining land when it is developed will proabably be as well. For those who have been hoping for a post racial city this may not be a welcomed turn of events. For example, if this area were to have been part of the City, the last mayoral race would not have been close.
In conclusion, it is hard to see how the City of Atlanta will grow to a population of one million people given the fact that it is in a mature metro area in which most of the areas on its borders are already developed in other jurisdictions.
Yes, annexation of DeKalb would be highly unlikely, if not impossible, in the present. I am not sure Atlanta's leadership would seek to annex an area with such demographics either, as it would probably throw off the balance. But things could happen in the future to change both DeKalb's and Atlanta's opposition to annexation. In the next election cycle things at city hall may be shaken up, and a new mayor may take action. Atlanta may get its act together and become known for fiscal responsibility. Perhaps efficiencies could be realized through privatization, and as a result taxes lowered or police force doubled.
Things could happen on the DeKalb side too - such as tax hikes, loss of school accreditation, decline in police presence, etc. There could come a time when those people would actually prefer to be in Atlanta over unincorporated DeKalb. And by that time, you can bet that the area will be the largest and densest chunk of unincorporated area in the whole metro.
Of course, a lot would have to change on Atlanta's side. Like you said, schools are a huge issue, and the APS reputation doesn't appear to be getting better with time.
As for annexation of south Fulton, I am completely opposed. Besides the fact that it would extend race-based political pandering, it is unnecessary expansion - that area does not have the population or density that would justify such an expansion. The police force would be stretched even thinner than it already is.
I think whether Atlanta reaches 1,000,000 in the city proper is irrelevant. The Atlanta city proper should focus on seeking quality development, improving transportation, increasing connectivity/walkability/parkland, infilling/densifying as needed+when appropriate, and...annexing surrounding areas.
The population will be whatever it needs to be.
I think the City of Atlanta should annex the following areas:
-Emory/Druid Hills Area
-Briarcliff/Oak Grove Area
-North Atlanta
-Brookhaven
-Vinings/Cumberland
-Six Flags
-South Fulton (north of Fairburn, Union City, Palmetto)
-Scottdale
-Toco Hills/North Druid Hills/Medlock Park Area
-Sandtown
-Gresham Park
-Intrenchment Creek/Constitution Area
-Mountain View Area of Clayton County
*these areas should also be annexed by Atlanta proper, but they've been incorporated: -Sandy Springs -Dunwoody -Chattahoochee Hills
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