Newsom eradicating sales of new gas powered cars by 2035 (bus, activity)

[ZeApelido]

Americans are so ignorant of the concept of negative externalities.

[carnivalday]

Seems the EPA may have something to say about this mandate:

https://twitter.com/akoseff/status/1310695493031272448

[GuyInSD]

Originally Posted by carnivalday

Seems the EPA may have something to say about this mandate:

https://twitter.com/akoseff/status/1310695493031272448

"...begs the question of how you expect to run an electric car fleet that will come with significant increases in electricity demand, when you can't even keep the lights on today."

This is a very good point.
Doing some quick calculations on how much electricity would be required to replace the vehicle-miles driven in California, here's some rough numbers :

California consumes 58 million gallons of fuel (gasoline and diesel) daily, which equates to 21 billion gallons annually (58M x 365)
(https://www.aeraenergy.com/the-numbe...on-oil-and-gas)

A gallon of gasoline is equivalent to 33.7 kWH.
(https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/fuel_comparison_chart.pdf)

So - the annual consumption of fuel in California is equivalent to 21B x 33.7kWh = 713.43 TWh

BUT - electric vehicles are anywhere from 2 to 8 times more efficient than gasoline powered ones.
(https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv-ev.shtml and https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml)

So, if all vehicles were to be using electricity instead of gasoline/diesel, this would require from (best case) 89TWh to (worst case) 357 TWh of electricity to power them for a year.

Now - what is California's current electricity generating capacity?
The latest information available (released DEC 2019) is for 2018, when it was 195 TWh.
(https://www.eia.gov/electricity/state/california/)

So - in just over 15 years, California has to increase it's electricity generation (and distribution - electricity doesn't just fly through the air from where it's produced to where it's needed) by anywhere from 50% - 180% (from 195 TWh to 285 - 552 TWh).

I don't know how much it would cost to do this, but I have a feeling that environmental regulations alone would make this an impossible goal.

[citizensadvocate]

Originally Posted by GuyInSD

"...begs the question of how you expect to run an electric car fleet that will come with significant increases in electricity demand, when you can't even keep the lights on today."

This is a very good point.
Doing some quick calculations on how much electricity would be required to replace the vehicle-miles driven in California, here's some rough numbers :

California consumes 58 million gallons of fuel (gasoline and diesel) daily, which equates to 21 billion gallons annually (58M x 365)
(https://www.aeraenergy.com/the-numbe...on-oil-and-gas)

A gallon of gasoline is equivalent to 33.7 kWH.
(https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/fuel_comparison_chart.pdf)

So - the annual consumption of fuel in California is equivalent to 21B x 33.7kWh = 713.43 TWh

BUT - electric vehicles are anywhere from 2 to 8 times more efficient than gasoline powered ones.
(https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv-ev.shtml and https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml)

So, if all vehicles were to be using electricity instead of gasoline/diesel, this would require from (best case) 89TWh to (worst case) 357 TWh of electricity to power them for a year.

Now - what is California's current electricity generating capacity?
The latest information available (released DEC 2019) is for 2018, when it was 195 TWh.
(https://www.eia.gov/electricity/state/california/)

So - in just over 15 years, California has to increase it's electricity generation (and distribution - electricity doesn't just fly through the air from where it's produced to where it's needed) by anywhere from 50% - 180% (from 195 TWh to 285 - 552 TWh).

I don't know how much it would cost to do this, but I have a feeling that environmental regulations alone would make this an impossible goal.

interesting, Yet they want to shut down Diablo Canyon furthering reducing generation capacity. Shutting down SONGs was already a disaster in terms of power bills I be certain that shutting down Diablo Canyon would cause electricity to become astronomically priced by 2026. Thus CA should make it a goal that makes sure the state improves its electrical grid and other alternative fueling stations for a gas free future by 2040 instead as many import cars and some domestic manufactures like GM phases out gasoline powered cars. There are so many miles of wires that are in danger of sparking fires these days I don't know how long would all of those be replaced. And that the state is depending on other states for power whenever demands increases. The Toyota Mirai is an expensive option these day that has very little places it can fuel up its hydrogen tanks outside of major cities. Its hard to keep them hydrogen tanks filled if one is straying away from cities. I believe all Toyotas sold would likely be hydrogen fueled or plug in hydrogen fueled combo by 2040.

On the flip side I be curious whether Newsom and some other governors since COVID19, gone mad of power and think they are captain of a ship who don't need to follow the procedures for new legislation anymore. Not that the Democrat Supermajority house and senate would think differently and only delay things a little.

[sav858]

Originally Posted by GuyInSD

"...begs the question of how you expect to run an electric car fleet that will come with significant increases in electricity demand, when you can't even keep the lights on today."

This is a very good point.
Doing some quick calculations on how much electricity would be required to replace the vehicle-miles driven in California, here's some rough numbers :

California consumes 58 million gallons of fuel (gasoline and diesel) daily, which equates to 21 billion gallons annually (58M x 365)
(https://www.aeraenergy.com/the-numbe...on-oil-and-gas)

A gallon of gasoline is equivalent to 33.7 kWH.
(https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/fuel_comparison_chart.pdf)

So - the annual consumption of fuel in California is equivalent to 21B x 33.7kWh = 713.43 TWh

BUT - electric vehicles are anywhere from 2 to 8 times more efficient than gasoline powered ones.
(https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv-ev.shtml and https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml)

So, if all vehicles were to be using electricity instead of gasoline/diesel, this would require from (best case) 89TWh to (worst case) 357 TWh of electricity to power them for a year.

Now - what is California's current electricity generating capacity?
The latest information available (released DEC 2019) is for 2018, when it was 195 TWh.
(https://www.eia.gov/electricity/state/california/)

So - in just over 15 years, California has to increase it's electricity generation (and distribution - electricity doesn't just fly through the air from where it's produced to where it's needed) by anywhere from 50% - 180% (from 195 TWh to 285 - 552 TWh).

I don't know how much it would cost to do this, but I have a feeling that environmental regulations alone would make this an impossible goal.

Thank you, nice analysis. You don't have to be an "expert" to recognize the major problem with this mandate. It would have been nice if they addressed this when they announced the mandate and how they plan to tackle it.

[mgforshort]

Originally Posted by joosoon

What happens when all the gas tax goes away too? That link Tule posted even points out how there's already a shortage of funds to pay for current roads, let alone something futuristic-y.

Please don't underestimate the California Legislature's ability to tax me, myself, my wife, my little dog, my parrot, the air, the water, that fellow behind the tree, and anyone else. If I left out somebody please feel free to correct.

[Mike930]

Originally Posted by mgforshort

Please don't underestimate the California Legislature's ability to tax me, myself, my wife, my little dog, my parrot, the air, the water, that fellow behind the tree, and anyone else. If I left out somebody please feel free to correct.

You forgot people who don’t even live here. Remember they want to impose that wealth tax that follows people for years after they leave the state.

You’re right. They cannot be underestimated.

[looker009]

Originally Posted by Mike930

You forgot people who don’t even live here. Remember they want to impose that wealth tax that follows people for years after they leave the state.

You’re right. They cannot be underestimated.

I do not see court ever agreeing it's constitutional.

[V8 Vega]

Oily Newsom just spews out and hair brained idea that comes into his greasy head. He is a dictator.

[vincenze]

As a heat wave threatens to strain California’s power supplies, the body that runs the electrical grid for most of the state asked residents to conserve electricity in a statewide Flex Alert.

The California Independent System Operator is calling for residents across the state to voluntary conserve electricity from 3 p.m. to 10 p.m. Thursday.

But when should a Californian charge his fleet of electric cars?