Phased Reopening (Portland, Albany, Grants Pass: buy, theater, construction)

[Cloudy Dayz]

Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell

The point is, Cloudy, you are going to catch it. Everybody is going to catch it. It's not going away. People will still be catching it 20 years from now. The human race has a new disease with no possibility of ever eradicating it. Fortunately, while it is very contagious, it is nowhere near as deadly as diseases like measles, but with over 30 strains already in circulation, the prospects for a vaccine are pretty dim.

Is that your personal opinion, or do you have a scientific source to back it up? I can find no source that says everybody is going to catch it. The predictions I have read say anywhere from 40% to 80% of the world's population could become infected, if the virus goes unchecked. I can find no prediction that 100% of the world's population will be infected.


Coronavirus 'could infect 60% of global population if unchecked' _ World news _ The Guardian

Coronavirus may infect up to 70% of world's population, expert warns - CBS News

[Cloudy Dayz]

Originally Posted by MtnSurfer

That was a smart, decisive and proactive move by Taiwan. It's too bad America couldn't have acted more swiftly. Instead, we're now spending billions reactively in the form of relief aid due to the fallout economically and medically.

Derek

It's about to get a lot worse. With this premature reopening, it will likely increase cases and keep the virus going over the summer. Then when the weather gets cold again, we will be vulnerable for a second wave. History shows that second waves are almost always worse then the first wave. In nine months from now, our healthcare system and the economy could be 10 times worse then it is now, if somebody doesn't start making some right decisions.

[Silverfall]

Originally Posted by MtnSurfer

That was a smart, decisive and proactive move by Taiwan. It's too bad America couldn't have acted more swiftly. Instead, we're now spending billions reactively in the form of relief aid due to the fallout economically and medically.

Derek

Well, this requires a national government that is proactive and can do math. States can only do so much individually as was previously stated, it is like peeing in part of the swimming pool. I mean I have clients moving to Oregon from hot spot states. They have been self-isolating, but there will be people on the move who don't.

I personally wear a mask and I'd say about 1/3 of locals are wearing masks out and about. Most places have hand sanitizer at the front as well from what I can see, but our 30ish percent isn't close to Taiwan's 95% and none of the masks are N95.

While I would love it if we were more willing to be proactive, I don't think Americans are willing to cooperate in large enough numbers so I think Larry will ultimately be right that people will just have to get it. The trick will be to let people get it in small groups as to not cause a surge as I don't think we have enough of the population willing to wear masks to protect themselves and others.

[Cloudy Dayz]

Originally Posted by Silverfall

Well, this requires a national government that is proactive and can do math. States can only do so much individually as was previously stated, it is like peeing in part of the swimming pool. I mean I have clients moving to Oregon from hot spot states. They have been self-isolating, but there will be people on the move who don't.

I personally wear a mask and I'd say about 1/3 of locals are wearing masks out and about. Most places have hand sanitizer at the front as well from what I can see, but our 30ish percent isn't close to Taiwan's 95% and none of the masks are N95.

While I would love it if we were more willing to be proactive, I don't think Americans are willing to cooperate in large enough numbers so I think Larry will ultimately be right that people will just have to get it. The trick will be to let people get it in small groups as to not cause a surge as I don't think we have enough of the population willing to wear masks to protect themselves and others.

I'm surprised you are not seeing more. On my last shopping trip, I saw literally 95% of the customers in Walmart in Coos Bay wearing masks. It was early morning and there were mostly senior citizens in the store which might have had something to do with it. The 5% who were not wearing masks seemed to be mostly younger people. Unfortunately none of the employees were wearing masks. I guess that will change now that some Walmarts are getting shut down due to COVID-19 outbreaks.

I agree I would like to see people be more proactive too, and use masks. It would be nice if masks use could become standard, like it is in Asia. If it were up to me, flu shots would be replaced with a requirement that everybody wear masks during flu season, while in public buildings or on public transit. I also think laws making it illegal to cough or sneeze in public if not wearing a mask should be in order. It would be hard to enforce, but maybe public pressure would be enough.

[MtnSurfer]

Originally Posted by Silverfall

Well, this requires a national government that is proactive and can do math. States can only do so much individually as was previously stated, it is like peeing in part of the swimming pool. I mean I have clients moving to Oregon from hot spot states. They have been self-isolating, but there will be people on the move who don't.

I personally wear a mask and I'd say about 1/3 of locals are wearing masks out and about. Most places have hand sanitizer at the front as well from what I can see, but our 30ish percent isn't close to Taiwan's 95% and none of the masks are N95.

While I would love it if we were more willing to be proactive, I don't think Americans are willing to cooperate in large enough numbers so I think Larry will ultimately be right that people will just have to get it. The trick will be to let people get it in small groups as to not cause a surge as I don't think we have enough of the population willing to wear masks to protect themselves and others.

Its both a national and cultural problem in America. Unfortunately, our arrogance has stopped us from learning from other countries assuming we've got things under control, which clearly is not the case. In spite of that, the Taiwanese gov't has extended help to America and other foreign countries in form of additional masks.

“Taiwan used the language and terminology of fighting a war,” said Chunhuei Chi, a professor at Oregon State University’s College of Public Health and Human Sciences. “With that mentality came extreme policy.”

World leaders are realizing their benefits. Israel said last month that it would emulate Taiwan’s monitoring of potential patients. New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern also said her country was “going to follow, pretty closely, the Taiwanese model.”

-- https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/09...-to-the-world/

Derek

[mathlete]

The back story.

If some good has come from the outbreak, it is greater awareness of the importance of Taiwan's hidden champions

The island now realizes the importance of keeping key manufacturing capabilities at home, said Eddie Chuo, chairman of Hiwin Technologies, a precision machinery parts maker that also participated in building new mask equipment.

"People got used to seeking low costs by moving low-end manufacturing to other countries, such as to China," Chuo said. "No one had thought that a low-end product like masks could become such a strategic resource that links to national security.

"Machinery is the mother of all industries, and machine tools are the foundation of machinery. It is a relief that a small island like Taiwan still owns the capability."

A crucial lesson for the U.S. as well. The world’s only superpower brought to its knees for want of a nail.

As a footnote my observation here is that surgical masks suffice for creating an effective barrier against public transmission of the coronavirus where asymptomatic carriers are the greatest threat. N95 masks are only necessary in hospitals or other settings with high viral loads.

[bikegal]

Originally Posted by Cloudy Dayz

I also think laws making it illegal to cough or sneeze in public if not wearing a mask should be in order. It would be hard to enforce, but maybe public pressure would be enough.

good point, or at least penalizing. this inconsideration and bad hygiene such as not washing hands has always pissed me off, especially when so many ppl make such a fuss about people who don't get vaccines. yet it's ok for ppl to go around coughing or not washing their hands. if I'm in a grocery store and someone keeps coughing around me, while not even bothering to try to cover their mouth or turn their head, or worse, make some half assed feigned attempt by moving their hand up, but of course they can only manage to get it halfway there and never soon enough...I walk away, then come back the other way and cough on them.

[Silverfall]

Originally Posted by Cloudy Dayz

I'm surprised you are not seeing more. On my last shopping trip, I saw literally 95% of the customers in Walmart in Coos Bay wearing masks. It was early morning and there were mostly senior citizens in the store which might have had something to do with it. The 5% who were not wearing masks seemed to be mostly younger people. Unfortunately none of the employees were wearing masks. I guess that will change now that some Walmarts are getting shut down due to COVID-19 outbreaks.

I agree I would like to see people be more proactive too, and use masks. It would be nice if masks use could become standard, like it is in Asia. If it were up to me, flu shots would be replaced with a requirement that everybody wear masks during flu season, while in public buildings or on public transit. I also think laws making it illegal to cough or sneeze in public if not wearing a mask should be in order. It would be hard to enforce, but maybe public pressure would be enough.

We have the early morning shopping hours for high-risk groups. I don't shop at that time since I'm not in that group, but I can see more of them wearing masks. From what I see it is a mix. I see all generations wearing them. Here at Roth's and Lifesource they wear gloves, masks and have a plastic shield between them and customers. At Fred Meyers, I always use the self check out so I'm not sure what the staff are doing.

I do think that the handshake greeting will go by the wayside after this.

[mathlete]

This may be a warning for Oregon about re-opening without being truly prepared. Hokkaido, Japan forced to reinstate lockdown after re-opening too soon.

Second wave is bigger than the first

The announcement lifting restrictions came just before a three-day weekend; Hokkaido residents spilled onto streets and lingered in cafes, celebrating the conclusion of their weeks-long confinement. That likely kicked off the second wave of infections, says Nagase.

Further fueling it, people from other parts of Japan saw that Hokkaido had relaxed restrictions and began travelling there. Some were university students in big cities, who returned home to Hokkaido when classes were cancelled in April, says Nagase. Others were employees of large companies that typically start new job rotations at that time of year; when the state of emergency was lifted, businesses sent a fresh crop of workers from Tokyo and Osaka to Hokkaido.

That likely seeded even more infections and soon the second outbreak was in full bloom. By April 9—exactly three weeks after the lockdown was lifted—there was a record number of new cases: 18 in one day. “Officials thought about people coming from overseas but never considered that domestic migration could bring the virus back,” said Hironori Sasada, professor of Japanese politics at Hokkaido University.

On April 14, Hokkaido was forced to announce a state of emergency for a second time. The island had 279 reported cases, an increase of about 80% from when the governor lifted the first lockdown less than a month before. As of Wednesday, there were 495 cases in Hokkaido.

Businesses are now preparing for the long haul. Tetsuya Fujiawara, CEO of Smile Sol, a group of ten pub restaurants in Hokkaido, says even though sales are down 60%, he’d rather a strong, consistent lockdown than “lukewarm measures” that would only perpetuate the cycle of restrictions being lifted and then reinstated as infections resurge.

What's missing from the article is that Japan also has a major face mask shortage because it also no longer has the ability to manufacture enough PPE of its own.

[Cloudy Dayz]

Originally Posted by mathlete

This may be a warning for Oregon about re-opening without being truly prepared. Hokkaido, Japan forced to reinstate lockdown after re-opening too soon.



What's missing from the article is that Japan also has a major face mask shortage because it also no longer has the ability to manufacture enough PPE of its own.

The future is not bright. The US will have a second lockdown too, and probably a third, before this is over.