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It was not that long ago when oil was trading in the $20's- the commodity cycle is blowing off for now and commodities can drop fast just as they rise fast. Oil would need to come down much further- now silver is starting to look interesting although it's not "there" yet.
It was not that long ago when oil was trading in the $20's- the commodity cycle is blowing off for now and commodities can drop fast just as they rise fast. Oil would need to come down much further- now silver is starting to look interesting although it's not "there" yet.
Yep. Those who speculated on a rise are getting crushed (again) today. The rest of us enjoyed lower energy prices
It's priced in US dollars like other commodities. When the US dollar rises sharply, it makes it more expensive abroad and lowers demand. To offset this, the price of oil will sometimes fall which will keep it constant in some currencies as it is doing in the Yen. OIL has been falling in lockstep with UDN and FXY which are ETF's for bearish dollar and yen/dollar bets, respectively.
Well, this and the charts are horrible. I have XLE as part of my long-term portfolio and that's good enough for me.
yes, charts are horrible. See UCO (Crude Oil ETF) on the chart below. Just a few days ago support set in October 2011, June 2012 and April 2013 was broken. Trend is clearly bearish. I would wait for further decline and I would expect further increase in volume. When I see at least 50% increase from the current volume I could assume that major player are starting to buy it. Then I may start to consider buying it also.
I wouldn't touch OIL, but OIH is fine if you want to own oil service companies. I prefer XLE though.
I jumped in. A sizable chunk of OIH and some XLE.
This may be simplistic on my part, but having seen markets rise and fall in my 45 years, I have picked up on a few things. When a commodity (or asset class) plummets, and people are still saying it is going to go down to zero, or when a commodity (or asset class) rises, and people are still saying it is going up to infinity, it is time to buy, or sell, respectively.
I think within 2 years, we will see $100+ oil again.
PS Just curious, what don't you like about the OIL as apposed to OIH and XLE?
This may be simplistic on my part, but having seen markets rise and fall in my 45 years, I have picked up on a few things. When a commodity (or asset class) plummets, and people are still saying it is going to go down to zero, or when a commodity (or asset class) rises, and people are still saying it is going up to infinity, it is time to buy, or sell, respectively.
I think within 2 years, we will see $100+ oil again.
PS Just curious, what don't you like about the OIL as apposed to OIH and XLE?
OIL is a falling knife in a downtrend, while OIH and XLE have formed bottoms. XLE is actually forming an uptrend if it holds.
This is a very interesting article relating to OPEC and the price of oil. IMHO it is food for thought as we move forward in our thinking of what oil prices might/will be in the near future.
This is a very interesting article relating to OPEC and the price of oil. IMHO it is food for thought as we move forward in our thinking of what oil prices might/will be in the near future.
That is my point exactly. Asset classes go up and down and back up again, yet every time there is a major fluctuation, there are articles about why THIS time, its different. THIS time, its going to stay down, or up, depending on what we are talking about.
5 years ago, the Dow was in the 6000s, and it was "going to go down to 2000 and stay there forever because America was over". "Outsourcing, jobs, the new normal, blah, blah, blah." Never happened
Another example, gold went from 700 to 1500 and was "supposed to hit 5000 an ounce" and stay that way because we were supposed to have hyperinflation from all the "money we were printing". That was going to be the new normal. Never happened.
Housing was going to go up forever. It didn't. Then it was going to go down forever. It didn't. The world was ending after the tech crash. I even remember in 1987 when the dow went from like 2500 down to around 1700, and the world was ending back then too, yet it still quadrupled over the next decade.
And every time, I end up wishing I bought more, or sooner.
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