Atlantic - Lee forms September 5, 2023 (storms, degree, America, inches)
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2023
...TROPICAL STORM LEE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 41.8W
ABOUT 1315 MI...2115 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
Since no Watch or Warnings for land, updates are only issued at 5 & 11am/pmEDT from NHC. NHC has 140mph Cat4 by Saturday. NHC's track is about in the middle of some of the various model tracks for this week / weekend. Nice spiral pattern with Lee as the evening storms fire up.
The track clears the storm mostly NE of Caribbean, with probability maps currently give Saint-Martin, Barbuda, Anguilla, Saint Barthelemy, and the British Virgin Islands 5-10% chance of hurricane force winds, about 20-30% chance TS winds. Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, down to Guadeloupe 10-20% chance TS winds. With storm becoming super intense by weeks end that will help keep winds in a tiny region compared to a weaker more spread out system. NE Caribbean may be on the edge of receiving (or not) some rain depending on final track/structure.
Now that Lee has formed we’ll see more where the models setup now that we have a starting center point to work with too. With that Northward turn just always watch for any Westward creep which has happened a few times before, just a keep in mind thing.
Now that Lee has formed we’ll see more where the models setup now that we have a starting center point to work with too. With that Northward turn just always watch for any Westward creep which has happened a few times before, just a keep in mind thing.
Should be interesting to watch. Nothing but fuel and room to grow in size. No land around, no shear, no dust and no cold water
Thank you Psychoma and Cambium. I've been watching this one ever since it was a week of thunderstorms in West Africa. I used to live there and was deeply fascinated tracking the storm systems (mostly on the late great Wunderground site before it got bought up by commercial interests and disemboweled) west of me into the Cape Verde region and on into and across the Atlantic. The systems often fizzled out, but in 2005 several developed into humdingers once they approached the Americas.
Wed 6Sept 5aEDT: Satellite estimated winds 65mph(100km/h), moving 14mph(22km/h), pressure 997mb. NHC has 150mph Cat4 by Saturday. No real changes in their cone map position. Storm still getting itself organized but very good outflow, classic spiraling going on and scattered storms firing, similar to last night, takes time to spin and get a core going. But well on it's way. Hurricane likely later today at some point.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2023
...LEE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 44.6W
ABOUT 1265 MI...2040 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
Look what latest Euro does... Remember I said the Trough was a key ingredient too?
Well it captures the storm and starts pulling it in, Sandy like. Watch the end as Lee makes a turn towards the coast. The GFS has the trough catching the storm later which is why it hits Nova Scotia instead
You can see it on the Upper Level heights map (500mb)
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
