Atlantic - Bret forms June 19 2023 (hot, average, days, storms)

[ersatz]

That was fast! Bit early for the Cape Verde hurricanes. What was 92L yesterday is now Tropical Storm Bret. Bret is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Thursday latest but to drop back in strength as it draws closer to PR and the Dominican Republic.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...832.shtml?cone

Keeping a close eye on any storms that are expected to turn north and impact the US. We sorely need the rain in the mid-Atlantic.

[Psychoma]

Thanks for starting the thread.
Bret is back (last appeared 6yrs ago near NE South America & later dissipated around Trinidad & Tobago / Venezuela). Average 2nd named storm formation date in Atlantic is around 17July.

11pEDT Mon 19Jun: Winds 40mph(65km/h), moving West 18mph(30km/h), pressure 1008mb. No Watches/Warnings yet since TS winds affect on land greater than 48hrs out (time based issuance), so we'll see them sometime Tuesday for Lesser Antilles. NHC continues to have hurricane Wed, Thurs, Friday, then weakening TS in Caribbean. Bret can intensify thru Thursday before dry air nearby and wind shear start to play their role (storms hate both).

NHC continues to sate strength,track uncertainty are higher than normal with this system. Stronger storm likely curves up, low end Cat1/TS into Caribbean (NHC leaning with this option).

[Psychoma]

Tues 20Jun 5aEDT/AST: No overnight surprises.
Winds 40mph(65km/h), moving West 17mph(28km/h), pressure 1008mb.
Sunlight reveals the low level center (LLC) is in between the main group of storms and the leading edge scattered storms...so disorganized system. Not going to suddenly intensify with that (storms like nicely stacked lower/upper sections). NHC strength / cone relatively unchanged with Cat1/TS into Lesser Antilles, then weakening trend into Central Caribbean waters.

[Psychoma]

Tues 20Jun 11aEDT/AST: Winds 40mph(65km/h), moving West 21mph(33km/h), pressure 1008mb.
Still disorganized. NHC lowers max winds by Thursday to 65mph TS, no longer calling for hurricane, shifts track more S so basically continues West movement. Heavy scattered rains for the Lesser Antilles and TS winds this week.

NHC calls for it to fall apart within 5 days, potentially sooner.

[LKJ1988]

It's a nothing steak and will die out. 2 months 2 early thanks to shear.

[Cambium]

El Niño giveth and El Niño taketh away. The Major Hurricane hype masters are certainly going into hiding today

Imagine that! Hot boiling waters and not even the fuel can do it.

It's like reading a headline, Markets are up because of unemployment report, markets are down because of inflation. There's always a cause that is associated with the result and a reason for a prediction

[LKJ1988]

I don't see anything real until Aug and shear goes away some.

[Psychoma]

Tues 20Jun 8pEDT/AST: Winds 45mph(75km/h), moving West 18mph(30km/h), pressure 1006mb. TS Watch Barbados, Dominica, St. Lucia, Martinique. With the TS Watch NHC now updates storm stats every 3hrs (2,5,8,11a/pEDT). Storms / outflow look a tad better, so gradual intensification may be occurring if can keep storms going / stay organized overnight.

Edit adding: Hurricane Hunter planes to fly into storm starting midday Wednesday.

[Psychoma]

Wed 21Jun 8aEDT/AST: Winds 60mph(95km/h), moving West 16mph(26km/h), pressure 1001mb. TS winds extend up to 60miles(95km) from center. Still disorganized, still pulsing scattered storms. Likely leveled off for now.

[Psychoma]

Wed 21Jun 3p: This afternoon’s air recon into Tropical Storm Bret shows NHC satellite derived 60mph (95km/h) wind estimate was spot on. Pressure holding around 1001mb so no changes likely next few hours. TS winds up to 80miles(130km) from center; strongest North half, lowest Southwest, low end TS winds Southeast quadrant.