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Latest GFS models showing a landfalling tropical system week after next?
Oh wow, you beat me to it!
Last 6 runs in a row have something. Interesting. As the consistency continues, confidence increases but this far out we'll need to see consistent for another few days.
When ever we get a SouthEast High Pressure, Bermuda High, the pattern is favorable for development because of the clockwise flow. GFS is picking up on this. Still far out, so much can change with the atmosphere and pattern
Invest 90E in Pacific with last ditch flare up today trying to obtain Tropical Depression status before it meets its dimise. Dry air just to the west side of storm now.
GFS12z today again has something. Tis the season for crazy land GFS. lol
Hits Florida west side, crosses over, and comes up the East coast (off the coast)
Watching its genesis point on last run - off of Nicaragua east coast - and wind direction I'm wondering if it's trying to say a CAG (Central America Gyre) will form? These can spin off tropical systems. Time will tell.
Invest 90E in Pacific with last ditch flare up today trying to obtain Tropical Depression status before it meets its dimise. Dry air just to the west side of storm now.
Invest 90E has been able to squeak out enough convection and structure to obtain Tropical Depression One-E status. Satellite estimated: Winds 35mph, pressure 1007mb, moving WNW 5mph, 1,300+ miles offshore and threat to none. Won't last long either.
May or may not end up being "tropical" in the end but GFS, the new test version of GFS (FV3-GFS), and the Euro picking up "something" in the east Gulf of Mexico early to mid next week (May 14-16th time frame or so). Hopefully some scattered showers to those who need it though.
Yep, the crazy GFS runs for week of the 20th of May was picking up a CAG (Central American Gyre...large scale spin over Central America), which can throw out a Tropical system(s) on the East or West coast sides of Central America but hard to predict if one will actually transpire from it:
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