Predictions for the 2020 census (Memphis, Knoxville: condos, how much, homes)

[Sun Belt-lover L.A.M.]

So I got zero results when I searched the Tennessee forum for "2020 census predictions"...

Feel free to share your predictions too. Here are the predictions I can think of:

--Cookeville will probably drop back below 25k due to the hit from the COVID-19 pandemic and additional tornado damage making many residents missing (TTU students gone, several locals dead, many locals dehomed). This would send them back to being a small city.

--Cookeville's urban population could even be as low as 30k, I expect below 35k - a massive hit from the over 44k we had in 2010. A lot of the tornado damage affected Double Springs, Westgate and northern Baxter, all of which are heavily residential portions of Cookeville's Urban Cluster. The only way I expect it could be over 35k is if it absorbs Sparta's UC, which isn't likely (they were still 1.5 to 2 miles apart in 2010).

--Nashville may or may not still be the largest city. Vanderbilt alone would mean there are under 13k students missing, but I remembered that there are other colleges like Belmont and Nashville State.

--Knoxville may well be the state's fourth largest city, outpaced by Chattanooga. UT Chattanooga's attendance can't even come close to UT Knoxville's, so Knoxville will have huge numbers of missing students - numbering over 28k for Knoxville but under 11k for Chattanooga.

--Murfreesboro may or may not become the fifth largest city in the state just yet due to a 10k+ undercount, but is growing so fast that it'll almost certainly retain its major city status. Clarksville will be undercounted by a comparable amount due to Austin Peay, and Rutherford County had the highest numeric gain of any for the 2018-2019 estimates.

--Under-the-radar places, namely Spring Hill and most small towns/cities, will be relatively intact with their local counting, and some of these areas could even see slight "gains" from students being sent back home - perhaps even enough for new micro areas to be temporarily created in rural counties near the limit and vanish in 2030.

--For this reason, I also expect Spring Hill to be one of the state's top 15 largest cities in 2020, as well as one of the 10 highest-gaining cities numerically. Depending on the outcome, they may or may not become the third principal city of the Nashville/Murfreesboro metro area (they certainly will if they absorb Columbia's UC, but even on their own they might).

--Columbia will probably also decline due to having Columbia State Community College, but their ~5-6k drop won't send them back to being a small city, so they'll be spared some of the misfortune Cookeville will likely face.

--On the contrary, Martin will surely decline. UT has a branch there.

--Jackson will likely decline. It's already stagnant, and they still have smaller colleges.

--With Tri-Cities also mostly stagnant and Johnson City having ETSU, they will likely have a massive hit as well, comparable to or even exceeding Cookeville's.

I can't really say anything about metro/micro areas, though. I've no idea how much commuting patterns will be affected by the pandemic and/or tornadoes, but I expect that it'll be an awful loss of counties for most due to the rapidly rising unemployment from the pandemic-induced recession.

[Serious Conversation]

The Tri-Cities metro and nearby VA counties, outside of Washington County, TN, have a net negative population figure aside from incoming moves. Washington County is only mildly positive.

I could see a 2020 decline YoY from 2019, largely because of the pandemic and a lack of people moving.

[Shakeesha]

Nashville will be in the top 20 cities by population
Franklin will likely exceed 80,000
Murfreesboro will likely exceed 145,000-150,000
Clarksville will be roughly 160,000
Chattanooga no significant change
Knoxville no significant change
Memphis stagnant

[nashvols]

This Census count is going to be interesting, for sure. But I don't expect it will drastically affect college towns. A lot of colleges and universities have a much higher percentage of students living off campus rather than on campus.

I think Cookeville is going to clear 35,000 and the urban area (which we won't know for a few years) will clear 50,000 and will become Tennessee's newest metro.

[JMT]

Originally Posted by nashvols

This Census count is going to be interesting, for sure. But I don't expect it will drastically affect college towns. A lot of colleges and universities have a much higher percentage of students living off campus rather than on campus.

I think Cookeville is going to clear 35,000 and the urban area (which we won't know for a few years) will clear 50,000 and will become Tennessee's newest metro.

Yeah the Census has changed a few things to make sure college students are counted in spite of the coronavirus situation. I think college towns, in general, get the shaft every census as many college students just don't answer the census questionnaire, and by the time the census workers come by verify in person, the semester is over and the college kids have gone home. I don't expect it to be much different this year, now that I've read how they've altered it to factor in this very unusual situation. https://www.census.gov/newsroom/pres...-students.html

[Sun Belt-lover L.A.M.]

Originally Posted by JMT

Yeah the Census has changed a few things to make sure college students are counted in spite of the coronavirus situation. I think college towns, in general, get the shaft every census as many college students just don't answer the census questionnaire, and by the time the census workers come by verify in person, the semester is over and the college kids have gone home. I don't expect it to be much different this year, now that I've read how they've altered it to factor in this very unusual situation. https://www.census.gov/newsroom/pres...-students.html

Well, that's good to know! However, I'm still expecting a loss of non-core counties from some metro/micro areas due to rising unemployment.

[jjbradleynyc]

My top 10 2020 predictions--

Memphis city:
2010: 646,889
2020: 656,000

Nashville city:
2010: 626, 681
2020: 683,000

Knoxville city:
2010: 178,874
2020: 189,000

Chattanooga city:
2010: 167,674
2020: 182,000

Clarksville city:
2010: 132,929
2020: 161,000

Murfreesboro city:
2010: 108,755
2020: 151,000

Franklin city:
2010: 62,487
2020: 84,500

Jackson city:
2010: 65,211
2020: 68,000

Johnson City city:
2010: 63,152
2020: 66,500

Bartlett city:
2010: 54,613
2020: 61,000


By 2030, both Murfreesboro and Clarksville will leap over Knoxville and Chattanooga, to become the 3rd and 4th largest in Tennessee.

I predict in 2030, something like this--

Nashville: 728,000
Memphis: 664,000
Clarksville: 207,000
Murfreesboro: 198,000
Knoxville: 195,000
Chattanooga: 190,000
*Franklin: 106,000 (goes over 100k for first time)

[Shakeesha]

^Murfreesboro may even pass Clarksville by then. There are so many homes and condos under development even in the rural parts. The gaps between Smyrna are starting to fill in.

[Sun Belt-lover L.A.M.]

Originally Posted by Shakeesha

^Murfreesboro may even pass Clarksville by then. There are so many homes and condos under development even in the rural parts. The gaps between Smyrna are starting to fill in.

I too expect it to be the 4th if not 3rd largest city by 2030, with the other highly possible 3rd being Knoxville. It seems no matter what obstacles are put in the way of continued rapid growth, Nashville and Murfreesboro find a very efficient way around it quickly.

But the metro area as a whole may well still decline. Rapidly rising unemployment could easily plunge many counties below the 25% commuting to core count(y/ies) mark needed to be part of metro/micro areas. Depending on how badly that turns out and which side of the 50,000 mark Cookeville's urban population is, we may even see a single-county metro area in TN for the first time in decades; and perhaps Jackson, Cleveland and/or Morristown could lose enough counties for that too, although I still seriously doubt Tri-Cities nor any of the five fully major metros will lose every single non-core county (Murfreesboro is a sixth major city but goes with Nashville as another principal city of the same metro).

[GWoodle]

I'm surprised there isn't a delay in getting a final Census count or a provision to do a re do some other time.