2019 TN Population Estimates

[JMT]

Originally Posted by MetropolitanTN

Yes, thanks JMT! I cant rep you again so soon or I would. I always appreciate you posting these numbers. I enjoy looking at them.

Thanks! I enjoy playing with numbers in my free time. Yeah I'm weird.

Some interesting notes from these estimates:

• If current trends continue, within 10 or so years Murfreesboro could be the 3rd largest city in Tennessee.
• Of the 30 cities with the most growth, 21 are in Middle Tennessee, 6 are in East Tennessee, and 3 are in West Tennessee. Half (15) are in the Nashville metropolitan area.
• While not visible in these tables, the 2 fastest-growing suburbs of Memphis are in Mississippi: Southaven (801) and Olive Branch (729). Side note: Southaven and Olive Branch are also the fastest-growing cities in Mississippi.

Remember, though, that these are just estimates. In a year we'll know what the official 2020 Census figures will be. It will be interesting to see how (in)accurate these estimates are.

[Serious Conversation]

It'll be interesting to see if major cities see losses and small cities see gains from people fleeing from denser areas.

[mattec]

Originally Posted by Serious Conversation

It'll be interesting to see if major cities see losses and small cities see gains from people fleeing from denser areas.

I doubt it. Memphis & Nashville are essentially oversized suburbs in terms of their density compared to other cities in the country. And if you think about it, density didn't really play a role in the spread of Corona outside of public transit utilization. The main culprit for Corona's spread was the level of integration in the global economy. New York has two major international airports, a large port, and a plethora of rail connections in addition to all of the international corporations that have major operations there, it was bound to be hit hard regardless of its density/size. Smaller rural areas don't have this level of integration in the global (or even national) economy and are therefore more isolated, which helped to limit the spread. But this same isolation also cripples the economic potential/opportunity of a majority of the people who live in or move to those places.

I also don't think people in urban areas will be willing to give up services and amenities to relocate to a rural area. There may be some people that use the current situation to justify a relocation from NY, LA, or SF to cheaper interior cities like Austin, Nashville, and Charlotte, but other than a few, I don't think they'd be willing to make the jump down to somewhere the size of Johnson City or smaller.

[BlueRedTide]

Originally Posted by JMT

Thanks! I enjoy playing with numbers in my free time. Yeah I'm weird.

Some interesting notes from these estimates:

• If current trends continue, within 10 or so years Murfreesboro could be the 3rd largest city in Tennessee.
• Of the 30 cities with the most growth, 21 are in Middle Tennessee, 6 are in East Tennessee, and 3 are in West Tennessee. Half (15) are in the Nashville metropolitan area.
• While not visible in these tables, the 2 fastest-growing suburbs of Memphis are in Mississippi: Southaven (801) and Olive Branch (729). Side note: Southaven and Olive Branch are also the fastest-growing cities in Mississippi.

Remember, though, that these are just estimates. In a year we'll know what the official 2020 Census figures will be. It will be interesting to see how (in)accurate these estimates are.

Yea, I wish someone would have posted in the Mississippi forum the DeSoto County Numbers including Southaven and Olive Branch, Besides Southaven The Fastest Growing Memphis Suburbs seem to be in Fayette County, I read somewhere that the town of Oakland ( in fayette county) grew by over 400% since 2000 . Also I believe the Census Estimates vastly undercount the Fayette County numbers so we will see how (in)accurate they are indeed when the Census Reports

[jjbradleynyc]

Originally Posted by BlueRedTide

Yea, I wish someone would have posted in the Mississippi forum the DeSoto County Numbers including Southaven and Olive Branch, Besides Southaven The Fastest Growing Memphis Suburbs seem to be in Fayette County, I read somewhere that the town of Oakland ( in fayette county) grew by over 400% since 2000 . Also I believe the Census Estimates vastly undercount the Fayette County numbers so we will see how (in)accurate they are indeed when the Census Reports

I've always wondered why the Memphis metro area did not include more counties in Tennessee.
Most metro areas will try to scoop up as many counties as possible (LOL) around the city, to boost those population numbers up.

I know DeSoto in Mississippi, is the most populous Memphis metro area county, besides Shelby.

And I believe the Memphis metro area includes just 3 counties in TN: Shelby County, Fayette County and Tipton County; 4 counties in MS: DeSoto County, Tunica County, Tate County and Marshall County; and 1 county in AR: Crittendon County.

If there were 3 or 4 additional counties included in TN, in the Memphis metro, the population of the metro area would easily be in the 1.5 million range.

[BlueRedTide]

Originally Posted by jjbradleynyc

I've always wondered why the Memphis metro area did not include more counties in Tennessee.
Most metro areas will try to scoop up as many counties as possible (LOL) around the city, to boost those population numbers up.

I know DeSoto in Mississippi, is the most populous Memphis metro area county, besides Shelby.

And I believe the Memphis metro area includes just 3 counties in TN: Shelby County, Fayette County and Tipton County; 4 counties in MS: DeSoto County, Tunica County, Tate County and Marshall County; and 1 county in AR: Crittendon County.

If there were 3 or 4 additional counties included in TN, in the Memphis metro, the population of the metro area would easily be in the 1.5 million range.

Yea either Hardeman or Lauderdale County or both could be added to the Memphis metro, if the Memphis Metro kept expanding eastward into Tennessee it would bump up against the Jackson, TN metro , perhaps a CSA? However unfortunately I don't think population growth and commuting patterns are strong enough in those counties to be included in the Memphis Metro yet.

For Hardeman to be included I think depends on Fayette, Fayette County is getting Spill over growth from Shelby County, Once Fayette County starts to become big enough population wise, It will start to spill over into Hardeman , That's when Hardeman County will be added ( really showing my nerd side here lol)
Unfortunately that will take perhaps a decade or more

Now as far as Arkansas, Memphis has One County Now but St Francis County is already in the Memphis CSA and I think St Francis' commuting patterns are already strong enough to Memphis that it will change from CSA to officially becoming part of Memphis MSA when Metro Areas are officially redefined after the Census I think in 2022 or 2023....So Memphis Metro going from only having one county in Arkansas to having two counties in Arkansas is all but certain
Unfortunately However...St Francis County is already losing population so that may end up actually being a drag on the Memphis Metro

[mattec]

Originally Posted by jjbradleynyc

I've always wondered why the Memphis metro area did not include more counties in Tennessee.
Most metro areas will try to scoop up as many counties as possible (LOL) around the city, to boost those population numbers up.

I know DeSoto in Mississippi, is the most populous Memphis metro area county, besides Shelby.

And I believe the Memphis metro area includes just 3 counties in TN: Shelby County, Fayette County and Tipton County; 4 counties in MS: DeSoto County, Tunica County, Tate County and Marshall County; and 1 county in AR: Crittendon County.

If there were 3 or 4 additional counties included in TN, in the Memphis metro, the population of the metro area would easily be in the 1.5 million range.

You don't really choose the counties to include. Its all based on commuting patterns. And in Memphis's case, Shelby County is a large county by area that was able to absorb most of the urban sprawl generated over the decades. For comparison, Davidson County is 526 sq. mi., whereas Shelby County is 785 sq. mi.


DeSoto County grew because of it's generally closer proximity to Memphis than the other TN counties and got a huge boost from white flight during desegregation in the 60s & 70s continuing into the present, as there was no possibility of annexation by Memphis or control by the Memphis dominated Shelby County Commission in Mississippi. Crittenden county didn't get this same influx because there are only two connections to Memphis across the river and the size of the flood plain that restricts development.

[mrarctic]

I have never really understood the people that live in Mississippi. The property is cheaper but then you have the state income tax & the very expensive tag renewals as well.

[jjbradleynyc]

Originally Posted by BlueRedTide

Yea either Hardeman or Lauderdale County or both could be added to the Memphis metro, if the Memphis Metro kept expanding eastward into Tennessee it would bump up against the Jackson, TN metro , perhaps a CSA? However unfortunately I don't think population growth and commuting patterns are strong enough in those counties to be included in the Memphis Metro yet.

For Hardeman to be included I think depends on Fayette, Fayette County is getting Spill over growth from Shelby County, Once Fayette County starts to become big enough population wise, It will start to spill over into Hardeman , That's when Hardeman County will be added ( really showing my nerd side here lol)
Unfortunately that will take perhaps a decade or more

Now as far as Arkansas, Memphis has One County Now but St Francis County is already in the Memphis CSA and I think St Francis' commuting patterns are already strong enough to Memphis that it will change from CSA to officially becoming part of Memphis MSA when Metro Areas are officially redefined after the Census I think in 2022 or 2023....So Memphis Metro going from only having one county in Arkansas to having two counties in Arkansas is all but certain
Unfortunately However...St Francis County is already losing population so that may end up actually being a drag on the Memphis Metro

Ahh, got it. OK, makes sense.

I'd like to see the commuting patterns improve and folks headed into Memphis--and those counties grow.

We'll see what happens.

[jjbradleynyc]

Originally Posted by mattec

You don't really choose the counties to include. Its all based on commuting patterns. And in Memphis's case, Shelby County is a large county by area that was able to absorb most of the urban sprawl generated over the decades. For comparison, Davidson County is 526 sq. mi., whereas Shelby County is 785 sq. mi.


DeSoto County grew because of it's generally closer proximity to Memphis than the other TN counties and got a huge boost from white flight during desegregation in the 60s & 70s continuing into the present, as there was no possibility of annexation by Memphis or control by the Memphis dominated Shelby County Commission in Mississippi. Crittenden county didn't get this same influx because there are only two connections to Memphis across the river and the size of the flood plain that restricts development.

Got it. That makes sense.

I would like to see Memphis grow faster--maybe it will in the next decade. It had great momentum going into 2020--and still does, although slowed by COVID.