Changes in DTSJ (San Jose, Santa Clara, Milpitas: apartment complex, condos, credit)

[Azmordean]

Originally Posted by neutrino78x

Well, there's always room to build vertically, within already developed areas. :-) But ultimately, bobby is right, this is a desirable area, and as long as it remains so, it will be more expensive than someplace out in the middle of nowhere. :-)

Desirable area has nothing to do with it.

There are parts of Texas - Dallas and Houston for example - that are considered desirable cities, have vibrant job markets, with salaries only slightly lower than the Bay Area, and cost of housing that is about 1/5th. Our housing crisis in the Bay Area is long term, deep, and structural, but it ultimately boils down to a single cause: politics.

Specifically, a combination of extreme NIMBY politics aimed at maintaining home values at all costs, along with misguided environmental regulations that increase dramatically the cost and lead time for building without actually doing anything to protect the environment.

Now it would be fair and correct to say there is more land availability in Texas. And for that reason, the Bay Area will never be "cheap." But there's no reason prices shouldn't be half or less what they are today with proper policies in place. Half price would be around 250K for a low end condo or 600K for a low end SFH. And compared to the US at large both of those numbers are still EXTREMELY high.

[bigdumbgod]

Originally Posted by Azmordean

Desirable area has nothing to do with it.

There are parts of Texas - Dallas and Houston for example - that are considered desirable cities, have vibrant job markets, with salaries only slightly lower than the Bay Area, and cost of housing that is about 1/5th. Our housing crisis in the Bay Area is long term, deep, and structural, but it ultimately boils down to a single cause: politics.

Specifically, a combination of extreme NIMBY politics aimed at maintaining home values at all costs, along with misguided environmental regulations that increase dramatically the cost and lead time for building without actually doing anything to protect the environment.

Now it would be fair and correct to say there is more land availability in Texas. And for that reason, the Bay Area will never be "cheap." But there's no reason prices shouldn't be half or less what they are today with proper policies in place. Half price would be around 250K for a low end condo or 600K for a low end SFH. And compared to the US at large both of those numbers are still EXTREMELY high.

People are going to take what people are going to give. If a seller thinks his house is worth 600K and people are tacking on 100K or more to get it, should we expect seller to NOT take it? Whether political manipulations are at work on prices does not apparently dampen the extreme demand for housing, whatever the cost. Hard to even imagine a ceiling on this market in the foreseeable future.

[bobby_guz_man]

Originally Posted by bobby_guz_man

Out of the two new high-rise, Centerra is the one I'm loving the most, design-wise. One South is pretty cool too, but Centerra is so "colorful", and has that classic semi-Art Deco design of the skyscrapers of old.

The proposed Silvery Towers will most likely be the best of all the residential high-rise in Downtown though.

Quick update! Centerra and One South are practically done with construction, and One South is getting ready to be leased. Centerra will start leasing November of this year.

Silvery Towers? They just broke ground today

Pipeline for residential high-rises in Downtown? Two high-rises in North San Pedro (north of Silvery Towers), the DiNapoli high-rise, Parkview high-rise, and another high-rise next to The 88.

[darkeconomist]

Originally Posted by bobby_guz_man

Quick update! Centerra and One South are practically done with construction, and One South is getting ready to be leased. Centerra will start leasing November of this year.

Silvery Towers? They just broke ground today

Pipeline for residential high-rises in Downtown? Two high-rises in North San Pedro (north of Silvery Towers), the DiNapoli high-rise, Parkview high-rise, and another high-rise next to The 88.

A map might be a useful resource here to visualize what's happening in DTSJ.

Not really excited about the idea of a highrise (Mill Creek project) in the middle of low-rise San Pedro Square. The shadow Centerra casts is pretty bad and the contrasting heights is awkward if you're hanging out outside.

[yayaba]

Building dense housing is great but I feel like you have to solve the transportation issue as well.

If all these people are just going to get into a car and drive that is going to be a nightmare.

If we had better public transit I say build dense and build more. But usually when I see dense housing go up in the Bay Area I see no change to the amount of traffic that the area around the housing can support. Nor any further investments in reliable public transit that can actually take you somewhere useful at a decent time.

[darkeconomist]

Originally Posted by yayaba

Building dense housing is great but I feel like you have to solve the transportation issue as well.

If all these people are just going to get into a car and drive that is going to be a nightmare.

If we had better public transit I say build dense and build more. But usually when I see dense housing go up in the Bay Area I see no change to the amount of traffic that the area around the housing can support. Nor any further investments in reliable public transit that can actually take you somewhere useful at a decent time.

Chicken-and-egg problem. Without density, transit is a hard sell, especially considering the burden VTA will have to bear for the BART phase-2 extension. Without transit, even the low end of high density, such as DTSJ, is difficult for residents to accept because of the resulting congestion.

The best solution is to go back and forth, a little bit more of the one, then a little more of the other, so that development doesn't overwhelm infrastructure and infrastructure costs doesn't sink the VTA.

[mysticaltyger]

Originally Posted by bobby_guz_man

Quick update! Centerra and One South are practically done with construction, and One South is getting ready to be leased. Centerra will start leasing November of this year.

Silvery Towers? They just broke ground today

Pipeline for residential high-rises in Downtown? Two high-rises in North San Pedro (north of Silvery Towers), the DiNapoli high-rise, Parkview high-rise, and another high-rise next to The 88.

Another high rise next to The 88? Where are they going to put it? In the parking lot behind it?

[mysticaltyger]

Originally Posted by yayaba

Building dense housing is great but I feel like you have to solve the transportation issue as well.

If all these people are just going to get into a car and drive that is going to be a nightmare.

If we had better public transit I say build dense and build more. But usually when I see dense housing go up in the Bay Area I see no change to the amount of traffic that the area around the housing can support. Nor any further investments in reliable public transit that can actually take you somewhere useful at a decent time.

I agree with you. Unfortunately, it's a chicken and egg problem. The transit doesn't become more convenient until after you get the density. We always do everything in crisis mode in America, unfortunately.

[cardinal2007]

Originally Posted by mysticaltyger

Another high rise next to The 88? Where are they going to put it? In the parking lot behind it?

People are talking about someone wanting to develop "lot 3" which is owned by Sobrato (between the 88 and the old Rep Theater), but I have yet to see any info on this development, right now it is a parking lot.

[darkeconomist]

Originally Posted by mysticaltyger

I agree with you. Unfortunately, it's a chicken and egg problem. The transit doesn't become more convenient until after you get the density. We always do everything in crisis mode in America, unfortunately.

The cities haven't helped matters. Santa Clara County has a sprawling LRT system, yet, despite that massive investment, cities haven't done much to capitalize on it. San Jose didn't do much when it had a redev agency and still doesn't do much. It's almost an accident that San Jose is getting some intense downtown development, but the most intense residential development--San Pedro Square--isn't next to an LRT station. So, in SJ at least, the chicken--LRT investment--is there, but the egg--density along the route and thus a reason for further investment--hasn't materialized.