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.biz - October home sales in Triangle show market continues to stabalize | newsobserver.com blogs (http://blogs.newsobserver.com/business/october-home-sales-in-triangle-show-market-continues-to-stabalize - broken link)
More good news in the news! It's nice to read about some positive things nowadays.
.biz - October home sales in Triangle show market continues to stabalize | newsobserver.com blogs (http://blogs.newsobserver.com/business/october-home-sales-in-triangle-show-market-continues-to-stabalize - broken link)
More good news in the news! It's nice to read about some positive things nowadays.
That is good news. Now if only Mr. Bracken could learn how to spell "stabilize" in his title, we'd be off to an even better start!
Sales vs Sept 2008 :
Triangle = -8.8%
Durham = -9.4%
Wake = -8.8%
Johnston = - 12.4%
Orange = +17.5% (14 more homes than Sept 2008)
No way these add up to a positive month over month gain for September.
This 1 month year-over-year increase is probably from two sources. One, last October was terrible - normally sales are flat to slightly up from Sept to Oct, but last year due to the credit freeze-up in September sales were down 15% month over month. Being up over the worst October in a decade or more is fairly faint praise.
Two, people were rushing to get in a house before the tax credit expired. This is pulling in sales from the future - people who would have bought next year are getting in now instead. Expect this to hurt sales down the road.
Plus, don't confuse stabilization in sales (at a level comparable to the last recession) with a stabilization in prices. Normally it takes a few years after volume starts to recover before prices bottom - and the median and average price drops shown in the MLS data bear this out.
I didn't think I would ever say this, but now really is a good time to buy! (And I'm not even a realtor!)
2004 pricing, super low interest rates, builder incentives, and the cherry on top if you qualify is the tax credit...
We won't know if now is a really good time to buy for quite a while IMO. Nationally and locally there's a significant unemployment problem and I don't see that improving anytime soon (JMO). When you've got a high level of unemployment you also don't have much if any upward pressure on wages but you do have a lot of uncertainty for many workers. At some point the government has to stop manipulating interest rates and bribing people to buy and who knows what happens to the housing market when that happens.
You hit a key point there with govt. manipulating interest rates. Once this stops, expect them to go back above 6%. So even if prices do go down more, your monthly payments may well be higher. Banks are offering below 5% right now on 30 year fixed. Of course, you are right, only time will tell.
You hit a key point there with govt. manipulating interest rates. Once this stops, expect them to go back above 6%. So even if prices do go down more, your monthly payments may well be higher. Banks are offering below 5% right now on 30 year fixed. Of course, you are right, only time will tell.
And what will happen if rates jump up? I would expect prices will have to come down further since it's all about affordability these days. BTW, we're in the process of buying after 18 months of renting and I have no idea if we're at the bottom, but it was a good time for us.
ETA: If I buy a house today for $500k w/ a 5% rate on a conventional mortgage and rates go up to 6%, it's possible my home will only be worth $450k next year (this is obviously just an example). If I go to sell in three years, I would rather have paid $450k and had a 6% mortgage rate than $500k and had a 5% mortgage rate.
So once again I am confused by the numbers or by the authors......or a little or a lot of both?!
Back to the tried and true method of buying a home: IMHO
1. If you need a home get the best price and mortgage deal and buy it.
2. If you don't need a home don't buy one in any market!
3. When 1 and 2 above don't work for you than RENT until they do.
All else regarding the market condition, the type of mortgage and rates, and where the home is located are just plain confusing and IMHO irrelevant.
Don't feel bad...I am constantly amazed AND confused by the numbers! I can get TWO articles in ONE day and they say opposite things. So...I'll just believe what I wanna believe! And that is...
If you need a home to live in, now is a great time to buy. As happy as we all are about the low interest rates, we are equally UNhappy about the low rates our money is earning. Seems like consumers never win.
Buying a home isn't like going to the mall and buying an article of clothing just because it is on sale. However, for those that were thinking next year may be a good time for them to buy, the tax credit just gets them off the fence.
For those first time homebuyers that were saving up to buy their first home, that $8,000 tax credit is a bonus to them. How long would it take them to save the $8,000, after all.
I don't think you can convince someone "now is the time to buy" if they are not ready to buy. And...who would want to???
I've become jaded by the media. I no longer believe 99% of what I read, whether it is good or bad. The difference between me and some of you is that I'm out with clients most every day so I get to SEE FIRST HAND what is really going on in this area.
Vicki
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