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Geographically distributed predictions of future climate, obtained through climate models, are widely used in hydrology and many other disciplines, typically without assessing their reliability. Here we compare the output of various models to temperature and precipitation observations from eight stations with long (over 100 years) records from around the globe. The results show that models perform poorly, even at a climatic (30-year) scale. Thus local model projections cannot be credible, whereas a common argument that models can perform better at larger spatial scales is unsupported.
Can you hear it? Thats the sound of all the busy little people rushing to find reasons to disclaim this without having to comment on the research itself. Wait for it, here comes the excuses.
My experience in modeling noisy systems, whether they be financial markets, electronic transmissions, or climate systems is that reliable short term predictions are difficult due to the noise component, but long-term trends can be predicted with reasonable reliability. An easy to observe example of this is the stock market which has substantial daily and even yearly volatility, but over the long haul yields fairly consistent returns.
The stock market is governed by the laws of Newtonian physics.
Newtonian Physics
Newtonian physics was invented by Sir Isaac Newton (who later referred to himself as "I suck" Newton). His parents were hippies and thought that it would be "cool" to spell his name with two a's. In a backlash against his parents laid back 'things just happen man, go with the flow' attitude, Newton invented physics. He used something called force (which his parents were against, because everything should be free man) and action (not as in 'sex' action, which his parents were all for man) to explain the fundamentals of how things work in the universe. This seriously pissed off hippies everywhere because all of a sudden life wasn't about freedom or free love, it was about all the things the hippies were rebelling against - stuff forcing other stuff to do stuff, total bummer man.
Newton invented three laws that essentially explained how things move (because they are forced). His most famous law says that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. This definitely explains why people stopped having sex after physics was invented. It used to be: to every action there is an equal and opposite action that is the same. For example every man that wanted sex (action) there was an equal and opposite man (woman) that wanted the same thing. However thanks to Newton's most famous law, the situation is now: for every man that wants sex (action) there is an equal and opposite man (woman) that doesn't want sex (unless force is applied).
My experience in modeling noisy systems, whether they be financial markets, electronic transmissions, or climate systems is that reliable short term predictions are difficult due to the noise component, but long-term trends can be predicted with reasonable reliability. An easy to observe example of this is the stock market which has substantial daily and even yearly volatility, but over the long haul yields fairly consistent returns.
Unfortunately, we can not quantify your experience. We can however quantify the positions of this research. I think I would rather deal with the facts than gut feelings based on "experience".
Really, this comes down to socialism. Its coming to America sooner or later unless the people are smart enough to revolt. But the people are too divided right now to stand against our government. Global warming has been used as fuel for lighting a socialism fire in America where big daddy government controls resources and distributes them how they decide.
How wrong you are. Where have you been? Socialism is already entrenched in America and has been for decades. Ever heard of Social Security and Medicare? I doubt that retired folks are gonna join in any revolt against them getting social security checks every month. And I fail to see how talk of global warming promotes furthering the establishment of socialism in America.
Last edited by StillwaterTownie; 07-30-2008 at 12:32 PM..
Some of us are working to reestablish New Deal Socialism in America and remove our country from the controls of a few corporations and the domination of the super wealthy. We are trying very hard to restore a true populist democracy to the United States.
Controlling the Climate change debate is just another tool used by the usurpers to protect the means they have used to obtain their stolen gains.
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