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Given these margins, I believe that places like NM, OR and MN are also in play.
Minnesota, yes. New Mexico, possibly, but not likely. Oregon, no. With margins like that, I'd be looking at New Hampshire, Maine At-large, Virginia, Minnesota, Nebraska's Second Congressional district, and possibly New Mexico as states to target. I think Colorado's too far gone to be considered at those margins, but you never know. It might be worth several stops in New Jersey to help with some congressional races, too.
I'm not against Mr. Trump campaigning in every state. In fact, I'd encourage it. I never understood why Republicans automatically accepted that some states were out of their reach and didn't at least try, if for nothing else, to help Republicans win Congressional races in those states.
Minnesota, yes. New Mexico, possibly, but not likely. Oregon, no. With margins like that, I'd be looking at New Hampshire, Maine At-large, Virginia, Minnesota, Nebraska's Second Congressional district, and possibly New Mexico as states to target. I think Colorado's too far gone to be considered at those margins, but you never know.
I think VA is a lost cause with all the federal government workers and Maryland ex-pats.
I think VA is a lost cause with all the federal government workers and Maryland ex-pats.
They have a Republican Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General. Republicans also gained seats in last years elections, just not enough to retain control of the House of Delegates and attain control of the Senate. It was a tight election in a supposed blue state. I'm not sure how doable it is for Mr. Trump, but I don't at all think President Biden will carry the state by ten percentage points this time around. 2020 was a fluke in a lot of ways, in my opinion. So it will be interesting to see where states "reset" themselves this November.
Given these margins, I believe that places like NM, OR and MN are also in play.
As a former Oregonian, I would LOL if Trump won Oregon. Trump is polling about 9% better than he did in 2020 but that's not quite enough to overcome the 16 point gap in Oregon in 2020. Some of my Oregon friends hate Trump but are also disgusted with Biden's performance, they may either go with RFK or just not vote.
Minnesota, yes. New Mexico, possibly, but not likely. Oregon, no. With margins like that, I'd be looking at New Hampshire, Maine At-large, Virginia, Minnesota, Nebraska's Second Congressional district, and possibly New Mexico as states to target. I think Colorado's too far gone to be considered at those margins, but you never know. It might be worth several stops in New Jersey to help with some congressional races, too.
I'm not against Mr. Trump campaigning in every state. In fact, I'd encourage it. I never understood why Republicans automatically accepted that some states were out of their reach and didn't at least try, if for nothing else, to help Republicans win Congressional races in those states.
I'm not holding my breath on New Hampshire. They seem to have gone from Libertarian leaning to outright blue. The only way I could see it potentially being taken by Trump is if Kennedy really ate into Biden's lead.
But yeah, I'm genuinely impressed by these polls. Doesn't mean I'm not expecting BS. Just watch, Trump will go from having a seemingly insurmountable lead to Biden eking out a 'lead' on him overnight. Perhaps in some cases bridging a dozen point or higher lead which sounds almost statistically impossible.
New NYT/Siena Swing State Polls: Biden Leads - WI (+2); Trump Leads - PA (+3), AZ (+7), MI (+7), GA (+10), NV (+12)
Horrible numbers for the Biden campaign...
Quote:
..The findings are mostly unchanged since the last series of Times/Siena polls in battleground states in November. Since then, the stock market has gained 25 percent, Mr. Trump’s criminal trial in Manhattan has started, and the Biden campaign has unleashed tens of millions of dollars in advertisements across the battleground states.
The polls offer little indication that any of these developments have helped Mr. Biden, hurt Mr. Trump or quelled the electorate’s discontent. Instead, the surveys show that the cost of living, immigration, Israel’s war in Gaza and a desire for change continue to be a drag on the president’s standing. While Mr. Biden benefited from a burst of momentum in the wake of his State of the Union address in March, he continues to trail in the average of national and battleground state polls. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/13/u...ound-poll.html
The Dem leadership has to be thinking - do we dump Joe or not?
Quote:
The point here is that Democrats have a Joe Biden problem...
...There’s time for the campaign dynamic to change. The economy is still healthy, and the anti-Israel protests might — might — die down. But the trajectory remains grim, and one effect of a losing campaign is that various factions start caring less about helping you win and more about exploiting your expected defeat for their own purposes... https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opini...d=BingNewsSerp
I bet even many of our local lefties here are even rooting for a Trump win in private, but are too embarrassed to admit it here and are trying to save face.
As a former Oregonian, I would LOL if Trump won Oregon. Trump is polling about 9% better than he did in 2020 but that's not quite enough to overcome the 16 point gap in Oregon in 2020. Some of my Oregon friends hate Trump but are also disgusted with Biden's performance, they may either go with RFK or just not vote.
hmm...16-9=7...5% of Dems vote for Kennedy or Green party 2% stay home, & we have a toss up.
How many are happy about Portland going down the toilet?
I bet even many of our local lefties here are even rooting for a Trump win in private, but are too embarrassed to admit it here and are trying to save face.
No, they are just bookmarking this thread to come back to it in November for a good time.
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