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Maybe...on one hand, the science has come a long way.
On the other hand, it's still just ones and zeroes.
The machine doesn't understand what it is doing.
That takes a person.
That is the scary part. A human is also just a computer, basically. When the baby is born, it is like an empty vessel that gets filled with experiences, knowledge etc. over the years.
Scientists are working on emulating how babies learn and develop into adults.
In other words, I think it might be possible to create a machine/robot that learns like a human, develops its own character etc., based on rules and laws that were observed in humans and are then applied to machines.
Sooner or later computers will understand what they are doing, maybe even why they are doing it. Conversely, even lots of humans don't understand what they are doing, and why. There is no magical difference.
Maybe...on one hand, the science has come a long way.
On the other hand, it's still just ones and zeroes.
The machine doesn't understand what it is doing.
That takes a person.
AI is very much different than computational computer. Take Deep Blue for example, this was the computational computer that beat Kasparov at chess in the 90's. How did it win? Simply because the CPU power had reached a point where it could compute moves far beyond those of it's human competitor. Computation is something computers have always excelled at and beating Kasparov was just demonstration of brute force computation.
A simple example of something that requires intelligence is fonts, a ten year old kid can identify the letter A in thousands of different fonts they have never seen before. With regular computer it's given an example of the letter A for every font and a rule this is the letter A. This is impossible task to do for all fonts which is important point especially if you wanted to feed it the knowledge of the world. If it has the letter A in it's knowledge base it can identify it. Assuming the data input is accurate it will always be right or it will not know.
This is not how AI operates. An AI computer is given examples of the letter A and then taught how to identify other A's. What is important to understand is it can be wrong. When it's wrong it doesn't file away this is the letter A, it changes how it came to wrong conclusion.
I presume the outcome of this doomsday prediction is that when the dust settles, we will only have automated production of goods and services and only the rich will be able to afford them?
The rich get richer by taking money from the lower classes. If you eliminate the buying power of the lower classes, how can the rich continue to prosper?
It seems to me in this scenario, nobody wins, even the incredibly rich and powerful. Therefore I ask is this outcome realistic?
Just because the technology will exist, will those who can afford to implement it do so? I would argue not.
The rich get richer by taking money from the lower classes. If you eliminate the buying power of the lower classes, how can the rich continue to prosper?
That is the point I have been trying to make. There will necessarily need to be some kind of transition away from capitalism. My views are typically conservative but this tech is going to change everything. I wouldn't consider it doomsday scenario but it's going to be a rough ride.
That is the scary part. A human is also just a computer, basically. When the baby is born, it is like an empty vessel that gets filled with experiences, knowledge etc. over the years.
Scientists are working on emulating how babies learn and develop into adults.
In other words, I think it might be possible to create a machine/robot that learns like a human, develops its own character etc., based on rules and laws that were observed in humans and are then applied to machines.
Sooner or later computers will understand what they are doing, maybe even why they are doing it. Conversely, even lots of humans don't understand what they are doing, and why. There is no magical difference.
Ah, but it's not an empty vessel (see Jung).
Machines will never wonder why because they will never be able process purpose.
People are wasting so much time and energy on all kinds of minor problems these days while automation and robots are posing a much greater threat to modern society than for instance other countries. An unhappy or even desperate populace can easily destroy a country from within. One can see how much damage the yellow vests in France are already causing, and that's nothing compared to what protests resulting from massive unemployment may look like.
Some scientists and observers say the current wave of automation and the next generation of robots hand in hand with AI will cause massive unemployment, like up to a billion jobs lost worldwide. The UN is also worried and there are varies ideas on how to deal with the consequences. One idea is to make laws that force companies to pay social security contributions for every robot used, as if they were humans. But I am not sure that is so easy. I think we have a superficial idea of what a robot is, we tend to think of a humanoid machine like in some science fiction movies. Most will probably look very different, though, maybe integrated systems without clear physical limits.
Maybe it would make sense to ask why companies are investing so much in automation and robots in the first place. Mostly because of greed I suppose. Most of the employees robots are said to replace are not even performing jobs that are too dangerous or too difficult for humans. In fact, services is one area that will suffer a lot, unlike in the past when manufacturing was affected.
So, how about basing the corporate tax rate a company has to pay on the ratio of profits to number of employees? The bigger that ratio, the higher the tax rate.
Another problem might be dumping accusations as robots and automation lead to cheaper products. This would be a big problem for developing countries whose cheap (human) labor cost is often the first step when trying to catch up and attract manufacturers.
So, what's your view on that whole robot, automation and AI craze? Are you worried about your or your children's job future? How can governments cope with the consequences?
My kids chose careers that support the new technology and the two older --- 31 soon and 29, enjoy six figure incomes....no student debt. So no I'm not worried about my children.
I'm really sure that humans can involve -- we don't have to go backwards. That's like folks seeing the success of them automobiles and being concerned about the jobs of the stable hands.
The Y2K hysteria was spread by people who lacked education and understanding to see it was really not a problem. The experts at the time knew it was not a problem.
Today however the experts on the subject are concerned with AI while those who lack education and understanding don't see what is right around the corner.
Robots/automation primarily serve the needs of mass production. If there is no mass of buyers/consumers, than there is no need for mass production. The capitalist model is not broken. It works exactly as it's supposed to. If there are very few consumers, than people would be put to work making only a small amount of product, likely by hand. You're not going to invest in robots/automation to make a small quantity of items unless you are a fool with more money than brains, or operating in a communist system.
The big difference is the service and transportation industries will be effected. Lower end manufacturing has already gone away in this country. More automation will just make sure its never coming back. But if you replace most driving jobs, food service jobs and hospitality the labor force will take a big hit.
The Y2K hysteria was spread by people who lacked education and understanding to see it was really not a problem. The experts at the time knew it was not a problem.
Today however the experts on the subject are concerned with AI while those who lack education and understanding don't see what is right around the corner.
Then that should have been the theme instead the world will end, spoken with gravitas.
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